Valencia FC vs Real Madrid 11/07/2026 Soccer Prediction

Our soccer betting prediction for Valencia FC vs Real Madrid starts with a clear contrast in the Matchday 12 table: Valencia are 19th with nine points, while Real Madrid sit third with 27. The game is set for Saturday, November 7, 2026, at 3:00 p.m. local time at Estadio de Mestalla. Valencia have struggled to turn home advantage into results, with no wins in six league games there. Madrid arrive in much stronger form, having won all five of their most recent matches across competitions.

The season scoring figures point toward a Madrid edge: Valencia have scored an average of 0.73 goals per game and allowed 1.55, while Madrid average 2.55 scored and 0.91 allowed. We don’t have verified current figures for shots on target or possession, so we’ll avoid guessing those numbers. The betting case instead rests on the standings, recent results and home/away records. Madrid’s away record is four wins and two losses, and the listed 1X2 market makes them a substantial favorite. Still, Valencia’s recent 1-0 win at Elche and Madrid’s missing attackers make the total-goals angle worth considering too.

Our 3 Betting Predictions for Valencia FC vs Real Madrid

1. Real Madrid to Win — BetMGM Sportsbook (-323)

Madrid are the straightforward side to back on the moneyline. They have nine wins from 11 league games and have won each of their last five matches, while Valencia have only two wins all season and remain winless at home in league play. BetMGM Sportsbook lists the away win at -323. That price reflects the gap in form and quality, so this is a higher-confidence pick rather than a bargain price. Our estimated outcome probabilities are Madrid 70%, tie 19%, and Valencia 11%.

2. Both Teams to Score — Yes at FanDuel Sportsbook (-143)

Madrid’s attacking production is impressive, but Valencia have at least shown they can find a way through in recent matches, including their 1-0 win at Elche. The home side’s season average is modest at 0.73 goals per game, so this is not a risk-free selection. However, Valencia’s need for points and Madrid’s defensive absences could create chances at both ends. FanDuel Sportsbook offers Yes at -143. We estimate a 58% chance that both teams score.

3. Under 3.5 Goals — FanDuel Sportsbook (-125)

Madrid can control the match without turning it into a high-scoring shootout. Valencia’s attack has averaged fewer than one goal per game this season, and Madrid have allowed an average of 0.91 goals per league game. The visitors’ absences up front are another reason to favor a more measured total. Under 3.5 goals at -125 is our third pick, with an estimated 62% chance of four or fewer goals. A 0-2 or 1-2 scoreline fits the outlook.

Team Statistics

Valencia: Home Form Under Pressure

Valencia enter Matchday 12 in 19th place with nine points from 11 games. Their record is two wins, three ties and six losses, equivalent to an 18% win rate and 55% loss rate. They have scored eight goals and conceded 17, averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.55 allowed per game. At Mestalla, they have two ties and four losses from six league matches, with no wins. Their latest result was a 1-0 road win over Elche, a useful boost after a difficult stretch. Coach Óscar Sánchez will need his team to turn that momentum into a more organized home performance.

Real Madrid: Strong Run and Title-Chase Position

Real Madrid are third with 27 points, recording nine wins and two losses in 11 matches. That is an 82% win rate, with no ties so far. They have scored 28 goals and conceded 10, an average of 2.55 scored and 0.91 allowed per game. Their away record stands at four wins and two losses. Madrid’s latest outing was a 3-0 win at Racing Santander, and they have won all five of their last five matches across competitions. Coach José Mourinho’s side will be favored to extend that run, though the squad absences could affect the attacking setup.

Latest Odds Boosts

🏈 Derrick Henry 70+ Rush Yards & TD on 11/5 + 210

Ends in

To offer

Must be 21 or older to gamble. Know When To Stop Before You Start®.Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER Caesars Sportsbook is committed to supporting Responsible Gaming.

🏈 Jakobi Meyers 3+ Receptions & TD on 11/5 + 425

Ends in

To offer

Must be 21 or older to gamble. Know When To Stop Before You Start®.Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER Caesars Sportsbook is committed to supporting Responsible Gaming.

Key Player Statistics, Momentum and External Factors

Madrid’s reported unavailable players include Vinícius Júnior, who is suspended, and Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham, who are injured. Those absences reduce some of the visitors’ attacking options, although the team has still produced five straight wins and averages 2.55 goals per league game. Valencia have their own availability concerns, with several players listed as injured or doubtful in the supplied pre-match information. The home side’s low scoring average makes the first goal especially important: if Madrid strike early, Valencia may have to take more risks. Lineups and player status can change before kickoff, so check the latest team news before placing a wager.

Last Direct Match: Valencia FC vs Real Madrid

The most recent meeting ended in a 2-0 away win for Real Madrid. That result adds support to the visitors’ moneyline case, though one head-to-head result should not outweigh current form and availability.

Performance in the Last 5 Matches

Valencia: one win, two ties and two losses. Real Madrid: five wins and no ties or losses. Valencia’s latest result was a 1-0 win at Elche; Madrid most recently won 3-0 at Racing Santander.

Performance

Valencia FC

Last games

Valencia FC performance of the last 4 home matches

Victories

0%

Over 2.5

75%

Real Madrid

Last games

Real Madrid performance of the last 6 away matches

Victories

66%

Over 2.5

83%

TrustnBet Predictions Summary

Our three picks are Real Madrid to win at -323, both teams to score at -143, and under 3.5 goals at -125. Madrid’s superior table position, five-game winning streak and strong scoring average make the away win the leading choice. Valencia’s need for points and the possibility of defensive openings give the BTTS market a case, while the home team’s limited scoring and Madrid’s attacking absences support a total below four goals. Compare soccer betting odds at sportsbooks such as BetMGM Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook, and remember that odds and availability can change. Bet responsibly.