NCAA Football: Texas @ LSU 11/14/2026
Texas heads to Tiger Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 14, for a Week 12 SEC matchup with LSU, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Longhorns bring the stronger record at 7-2, while LSU is 6-3 and back home after a 31-13 loss to Alabama. Texas, meanwhile, picked up a 34-20 road win at Missouri, with Arch Manning throwing three touchdown passes and no interceptions.
The market leans toward LSU at home, with the Tigers favored by 3.5 points and a total around 46.5. That creates an interesting contrast: Texas has the better overall record and arrives off a win, but LSU’s home record is 5-1, and its offense put up plenty of yardage last week despite struggling to turn it into points. The betting question is whether that production carries over—and whether LSU can finish drives against a Texas team allowing just 17.4 points per game.
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Our 3 betting predictions for Texas @ LSU
1. Over 46.5 points — -105
The total looks reachable if LSU converts more of its chances. The Tigers gained 457 yards against Alabama, but came away with only 13 points after going 0-for-4 on fourth down, turning the ball over, and missing a field goal. That’s a poor scoring return for that much offense. Texas has also shown a capable passing attack: Manning completed 28 of 38 passes for 297 yards and three scores against Missouri.
There are reasons to be cautious. LSU managed just 77 rushing yards on 33 carries against Alabama, and Texas’ defense has allowed 17.4 points per game. Still, a total of 46.5 doesn’t require a shootout; two productive offenses and a handful of red-zone conversions could get this over the number. Betting tip: Over 46.5 points at -105.
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2. LSU to win the moneyline — -182
LSU’s home field is a meaningful part of this matchup. The Tigers are 5-1 at Tiger Stadium, where a night game can make life difficult for a visiting offense. They also produced 380 passing yards against Alabama, a sign that the passing game can move the ball even when the overall result disappoints.
Texas is the more reliable team on recent evidence, and the Longhorns’ 7-2 record is better than LSU’s 6-3 mark. But LSU’s ability to generate passing yards, plus its home advantage, gives the Tigers a path to a win. The moneyline price is not cheap, so this is a lean rather than a claim of certainty. Betting tip: LSU moneyline at -182.
3. LSU -3.5 on the spread — -111
Taking LSU to cover means backing the Tigers to win by at least four points. That’s a more aggressive call than the moneyline, especially given Texas’ recent form and LSU’s uneven scoring against Alabama. But the home setting and the Tigers’ passing production give this number a case. If LSU turns its yardage into touchdowns instead of settling for short possessions or missed opportunities, it can separate.
Texas has been competitive, and its defense has limited opponents’ third-down conversions to 32%, so there’s a real chance this stays close. The spread is best treated as a smaller, higher-risk play than the total. Betting tip: LSU -3.5 at -111.
Team Statistics and current form
LSU: Home-field edge, with points left on the field
LSU enters at 6-3, with a listed win percentage of 66.7%. The Tigers are 5-1 at home and 2-0 away, according to the supplied records. Their last five results are split three wins and two losses, and their latest outing was a 31-13 home loss to Alabama.
That final score did not tell the whole story. LSU outgained Alabama 457-285, while quarterback Sam Leavitt completed 35 of 47 passes for 380 yards and one interception. The Tigers’ offense struggled to finish: they rushed for 77 yards on 33 attempts, went 5-for-14 on third down, and failed on all four fourth-down tries. Leavitt was sacked four times and accounted for no touchdowns.
For context, LSU has averaged 37.1 points per game through its first nine games, based on 334 total points. It has allowed an average of 17.7 points per game, based on 159 points against. Those season averages are notably stronger than the 13 points it scored in the Alabama loss, but that game also showed how costly missed chances can be.
Texas: Better record and a sharp passing performance
Texas arrives 7-2, with a listed win percentage of 77.8%. The Longhorns are 5-1 at home and 2-0 away in the supplied split, and they also have three wins and two losses across their last five games. Their latest result was a 34-20 road win over Missouri.
Manning was the headline performer, going 28-for-38 for 297 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. Raleek Brown added 85 rushing yards on 17 carries and a touchdown, plus six catches for 48 yards and another score. Texas has scored 280 points in nine games, an average of 31.1 points per game, and has allowed 157, or 17.4 points per game. The defense has also held opponents to a 32% third-down conversion rate.
The supplied data does not include season-long passing, rushing, tackle, or interception averages, so those numbers are not included here. The latest game does offer a useful snapshot: Texas produced a balanced set of scoring contributions and Manning protected the ball, an encouraging combination heading into a tough road environment.
Key player statistics, momentum and external factors
Manning’s three-touchdown, zero-interception outing gives Texas a strong starting point, while Brown’s dual-threat contribution adds options if LSU focuses on the passing game. Texas does have injury questions: left tackle Trevor Goosby and running back Hollywood Smothers are out for the season, and the status of edge rusher Colin Simmons and defensive lineman Hero Kanu merits watching. LSU has its own availability concerns, including several season-ending injuries and uncertainty around linebacker Whit Weeks. Official availability information for this matchup was not yet published in the supplied pregame notes, so these statuses should be treated as provisional. LSU coach information is listed as “-” in the match data, so no coach name is included. The biggest on-field swing may be LSU’s red-zone execution after generating 457 yards against Alabama without matching that production on the scoreboard.
Last direct match: LSU vs. Texas
The supplied head-to-head record covers one meeting, won by LSU. The last direct matchup finished 45-38, with LSU winning away. That high-scoring result is a point in favor of considering the over, though one previous game is not enough by itself to predict the same scoring pattern.
Performance in the last five matches
Both teams have three wins and two losses across their last five games. LSU’s most recent result was a 31-13 home loss to Alabama; Texas most recently won 34-20 on the road against Missouri.
TrustnBet tips summed up
The top play is Over 46.5 points at -105: LSU moved the ball well against Alabama, and Texas just delivered a productive offensive performance at Missouri. The other two selections are LSU on the moneyline at -182 and LSU -3.5 at -111, both leaning on the Tigers’ 5-1 home record and their ability to create passing yards. Texas’ stronger overall record and more recent win keep this from being a confident sweep of LSU wagers. The clearest recommendation is the total; the LSU side plays are riskier options, especially the spread.
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