NCAA Football: Texas @ Missouri 11/07/2026
Texas heads to Faurot Field on Saturday, November 7, for a Week 11 SEC matchup with plenty riding on it. Both teams enter at 6-2, and both are coming off convincing wins: Missouri handled Arkansas 34-10, while Texas shut out Mississippi State in a 31-3 win. The matchup sets up as a contrast between Missouri’s stronger overall offensive production and turnover profile, and a Texas defense that has been stingy all season.
The betting angles supplied point to Missouri with the points, a modest lean toward the home team on the moneyline, and an over on the total. Texas has the higher table position, but Missouri’s home-field edge and Texas’ reported injury concerns make this a tougher road spot than the ranking alone suggests. Here’s the case for each pick.
Get set for Saturday with college football betting odds, and compare spreads and totals before making your picks.
Our 3 betting predictions for Texas @ Missouri
1. Spread pick: Missouri +3.5 at -116
The spread offers room for Missouri to keep this close, even if Texas comes away with the win. The Tigers are 4-0 at home, while their offense has averaged 31.5 points and 425.3 yards per game in the supplied season numbers. Running back Jamal Roberts is coming off a strong performance against Arkansas, and Missouri’s reported +8 turnover margin gives it a useful advantage in a matchup where possessions could matter.
Texas is a dangerous opponent, especially with a defense allowing just 17.1 points per game. But the Longhorns’ reported injuries and less productive ground game add uncertainty on the road. Taking Missouri +3.5 provides a cushion beyond a field goal. Betting tip: Missouri +3.5 at -116.
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2. Total: Over 42.5 Points at -114
The total is within reach for two offenses that have averaged more than 30 points per game. Missouri is at 31.5 points per game and Texas at 30.8. Those averages don’t guarantee a high-scoring afternoon—Texas’ defense has been a real strength—but the recent results offer reasons to expect points: Missouri scored 34 against Arkansas, and Texas put up 31 against Mississippi State.
A total of 42.5 leaves room for either defense to make plays without needing a shootout. Two teams reaching the low-to-mid 20s would be enough to push this over. Betting tip: Over 42.5 points at -114.
3. Moneyline pick: Missouri to win at +130
Missouri is the home-team value play at plus money. The Tigers have a 6-2 record, are unbeaten at home, and arrive with a five-game winning streak according to the supplied matchup report. Their quarterback, Austin Simmons, has 16 touchdown passes against two interceptions in the provided season stats—an efficient profile against a Texas team whose Arch Manning has 15 touchdown passes and seven interceptions.
Texas’ defensive numbers and 31-3 win last week make the Longhorns a credible favorite. Still, Missouri’s turnover edge, home form and better reported offensive yardage make the underdog price appealing. The supplied market lists Missouri at +130, implying a 43.5% win probability before accounting for the sportsbook’s margin. Betting tip: Missouri moneyline at +130.
Team Statistics
Missouri’s home form and offensive balance
Missouri is 6-2 overall, with a 75% win rate. The Tigers are 4-0 at Faurot Field, a significant factor for this Week 11 matchup. They scored 252 points across eight games, an average of 31.5 per game, and allowed 147, or 18.4 per game.
The season figures supplied credit Missouri with 425.3 yards of offense per game: 257.1 through the air and 168.1 on the ground. Austin Simmons has thrown for 1,952 yards and 16 touchdowns, with two interceptions. The rushing attack is led by Jamal Roberts, who ran for 138 yards and a touchdown against Arkansas and has recorded at least 100 rushing yards in five games this season.
Missouri’s latest result was a 34-10 road win over Arkansas. The Tigers forced four turnovers and turned them into 24 points, a sharp example of how their +8 turnover margin can change a game. The supplied defensive averages are 325.3 yards and 18.4 points allowed per game, including 98.4 rushing yards allowed. No tackle total was provided.
Texas brings a strong defense, but road questions remain
Texas is also 6-2, with a 75% win rate. The Longhorns are 4-0 at home and 1-0 on the road in the provided record breakdown. They have scored 246 points through eight games, averaging 30.8 per game, while allowing 137, or 17.1 per game.
Texas averages 358.4 yards of offense per game: 224.1 passing and 134.3 rushing. Arch Manning’s supplied season line is 1,727 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The team’s run production has been more limited than Missouri’s, averaging 134.3 yards per game. The defense is the headline strength, allowing 273.1 yards per game, including 170.8 passing and 102.4 rushing.
The Longhorns’ most recent outing was a 31-3 home win over Mississippi State. Manning completed 16 of 20 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns, and Texas held Mississippi State to 179 yards of offense, according to the matchup notes. Texas’ reported turnover margin is -3, in contrast with Missouri’s +8. The supplied injury report also flags several Texas players as out or questionable, including key players on offense and defense. No tackle total was provided.
Key Player Statistics, Momentum and External Factors
Missouri’s Austin Simmons has the cleaner season passing line in the supplied stats: 16 touchdown passes and two interceptions. Roberts’ recent rushing form gives the Tigers a way to sustain drives, while the defense has been especially effective at creating turnovers. Texas counters with a high-level defense that has allowed 17.1 points per game and held Mississippi State to just three points last week.
The Texas injury report is a major uncertainty, with four players listed as out and several starters questionable. The supplied notes also identify Texas’ -3 turnover margin as a potential concern. Missouri is at home, unbeaten in Columbia this season, and coming off a 34-10 win. Missouri’s coach is listed as “-” in the match information, so no coach name can be confirmed here.
Last direct match: Missouri vs. Texas
No previous head-to-head match information is available in the supplied data. The record provided lists zero meetings for both teams.
Performance last 5 matches
Both teams are listed at 3 wins and 2 losses across their last five games. Missouri’s latest result was a 34-10 win over Arkansas; Texas’ latest result was a 31-3 win over Mississippi State.
TrustnBet Tips summed up
The picks lean toward Missouri’s home-field edge and turnover advantage: Missouri +3.5 at -116 is the primary spread play, and Missouri at +130 offers an underdog moneyline option. The over 42.5 at -114 is supported by both teams’ season scoring averages, though Texas’ strong defense is the main reason to keep expectations measured. The clearest overall angle is Missouri with the points, with the home moneyline as the higher-risk alternative.
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