Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers 08/13/2026
Preseason football is back, and we’ve got a Thursday night spotlight at Acrisure Stadium as the Green Bay Packers visit the Pittsburgh Steelers. Kick is set for 7:00 PM ET on August 13, and yes—this is the first tune‑up of the slate. Preseason Week 1 is always a different animal: limited snaps for the starters, heavy evaluations for rookies and backups, and coaches managing reps as much as game flow. That volatility can create edges if you’re selective and price‑sensitive.
Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin typically sets a fast tempo in camp and gets young players real chances to pop early. Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur has historically kept things pretty controlled in the opener, leaning into depth-chart battles rather than stress-testing his top guys. For betting purposes, this one looks like classic preseason math: slight home‑field nudge, quarterback room depth, and special teams sharpness in the second half. Add the market context—with tight moneyline pricing and a modest total—and there’s an actionable angle or two if you know where to look.
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Our betting predictions: Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Main Tip: Totals – Over 36.5 Points
1) Over 36.5 points at -125 with FanDuel. Rationale: Preseason Week 1 totals can be tricky—early series can be quiet, but second‑ and third‑string units often crank up tempo and take shots. With both teams auditioning multiple quarterbacks and skill players, busted coverages and short fields tend to show up late. Pittsburgh’s depth at wide receiver and Green Bay’s willingness to evaluate RB/TE packages should create chunk plays. Our model makes the median combined output closer to 38–39 points in this exact usage scenario. Estimated hit rate: 55–56% (roughly aligned with -125).
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Steelers to Win
2) Moneyline: Steelers to win at DraftKings. Rationale: Call it slight but real. Home stadium, cleaner special teams under Tomlin early in August, and a defensive front that can stress protection once the twos and threes rotate in. We’re at 54–56% win probability for Pittsburgh (which aligns with -122 pricing), with late‑game situational edges if the Steelers’ backup QB play holds serve.
Tip 3: Spread – Steelers -0.5
3) Spread: Steelers -0.5 at -120 with DraftKings. Rationale: Functionally the moneyline at a marginally different price, but it lets us express the same lean with essentially the same risk profile. If you prefer to trim the ML juice, this is viable. Projection has Pittsburgh by 2.0–2.5 in a game where second‑half turnovers and short fields may flip quickly. Estimated cover probability: 54–55% at -120.
Team Statistics and on‑field tendencies
Pittsburgh Steelers (home): Context matters in August, and Tomlin’s teams usually show early energy on defense and special teams. From a recent‑season lens, Pittsburgh’s offense averaged about 213.6 passing yards per game and 103.3 rushing yards per game, settling near 316.9 total yards per game. Those are regular‑season baselines, but in preseason, the translation is all about depth: how well the second unit protects, whether the backfield rotation can grind 4–5 yards per carry against vanilla fronts, and if the wideouts can create separation versus basic coverage shells. The Steelers are in the AFC North—one of the NFL’s most physical divisions—with a culture that emphasizes defensive integrity and situational football. Expect Pittsburgh to test edge contain and inside zone looks early, then expand to screens and shot plays once the backup quarterbacks enter. The defense should play fast in the middle quarters, looking to force one or two short‑field opportunities that swing momentum.
Green Bay Packers (away): Green Bay comes in with a balanced offensive identity under Matt LaFleur, and while Week 1 preseason snaps for Jordan Love will likely be light, the scheme tends to be QB‑friendly for the depth chart. Using last regular season’s totals as a guide—but translating to per‑game pace to avoid inflated aggregates—the Packers hovered around 226 passing yards per game and roughly 120 rushing yards per game. They also sustained chains at about 19–20 first downs per game, a solid baseline for controlling tempo. The Packers sit in the NFC North, where multiple defenses challenge you to win on schedule and finish drives. In this opener, watch Green Bay lean into play‑action and perimeter runs to get the second unit in rhythm. Defensively, the Packers’ preseason emphasis often revolves around communication and tackling angles—if they keep yards after catch modest, they can throttle those middle‑eight minutes where preseason games get chaotic.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Coaching and usage: Mike Tomlin generally keeps a crisp operation in Week 1, while Matt LaFleur has historically protected front‑line snaps. Expect brief starter sightings, then heavy auditions.
- Depth battles to watch: Backup QBs and WR/TE rotations on both teams should drive second‑half scoring volatility.
- Health notes: Training‑camp PUP designations matter for rotation planning (e.g., tight ends in Green Bay, select defensive pieces in Pittsburgh), but they rarely dictate early‑August totals unless multiple units are thinned at once.
- Environment: Mid‑August in Pittsburgh is warm and humid—good kicking conditions if the wind cooperates, and conducive to late‑game fatigue, which can open lanes and explosive plays.
Last direct match
The most recent head‑to‑head finished 35–25 as a road win for the Green Bay Packers.
Performance last 5 Matches
Pittsburgh Steelers: 3 wins, 2 losses (last: 6–30 home loss vs. Houston). Green Bay Packers: 0 wins, 5 losses (last: 27–31 away loss at Chicago).
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Preseason Week 1 is where discipline and depth beat flashy headlines. Our card leans into structure, late‑game variance, and market‑aligned probabilities. We’re on Over 36.5 at -125 because this script often breaks open in the second half when coverage busts, short fields, and aggressive play‑calling from backups add up to quick points. We back the Steelers moneyline at -122 due to modest home‑field comfort and a coaching staff known for buttoned‑up special teams and situational sharpness. And for bettors who prefer a near‑equivalent angle at a slightly different price point, Steelers -0.5 at -120 fits the same thesis with minimal added risk.
As for probabilities, we peg Pittsburgh around 54–56% to win (which tracks with -122), and we rate the total north of 36.5 roughly 55–56% of the time (consistent with -125). The spread is effectively an ML echo, so treat it as a portfolio complement. One last reminder: preseason betting pays when you react to confirmed snap‑count notes and depth‑chart news. If we get word that a quarterback unit plays longer than expected, or a defensive rotation is especially thin, the live market can be your friend. For now, the plan stands—Steelers to edge it, and the Over to benefit from a busy second half.
