Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens 11/05/2026
Thursday Night Football brings a matchup with two teams heading in very different directions. Jacksonville arrives at M&T Bank Stadium at 5-2 after a 42-7 win over Indianapolis, while Baltimore is 4-4 and coming off a 36-10 loss to Buffalo. The Jaguars have won four of their last five; the Ravens have lost three straight, and the quarterback injuries outlined ahead of kickoff make Baltimore’s offensive outlook especially uncertain.
The supplied moneyline has Jacksonville at -370 and Baltimore at +376. That price reflects a substantial gap between the teams’ recent form and the Ravens’ quarterback situation, though the home crowd and Derrick Henry give Baltimore a path to make this uncomfortable. Our overall lean is Jacksonville to win, with the game total and the Ravens’ points cushion providing alternate angles.
Start with the number the teams need to beat. Explore NFL lines and totals as we weigh the matchup and our picks.
Our 3 betting predictions for Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
1. Moneyline: Jacksonville Jaguars to win (-370)
Jacksonville is the clear moneyline pick. The Jaguars are 5-2, own a +85 point differential, and just put up 42 points against the Colts. Baltimore’s recent run has gone the other way: three consecutive losses, including a 36-10 result in Buffalo. The key concern is the Ravens’ quarterback room. Lamar Jackson is expected to miss time after thumb surgery, while Tyler Huntley is dealing with turf toe and rookie Joe Fagnano could be asked to take the reins.
That is a tough setup against a Jaguars team with a much steadier recent profile. Jacksonville has won four of its last five, and Trevor Lawrence gives the visitors the more dependable quarterback option. The odds are steep, so a straight moneyline wager comes with a modest payout relative to the risk; still, if choosing the winner, Jacksonville is the straightforward side. Betting tip: Jaguars moneyline at -370.
2. Total: Over 42.5 points (-115)
The total pick is Over 42.5, listed at -115. Jacksonville’s 42-point outburst last week is the most obvious reason to expect the Jaguars to do their share of the scoring. The team has averaged 28 points across its seven games, calculated from 196 total points. Baltimore’s offense has produced 179 points in eight games, an average of about 22.4 per game, even with the current downturn.
There is a real caution here: if Baltimore’s starting quarterback situation is as compromised as reported, the Ravens could struggle to contribute enough points to push the game over. But Henry’s ability to generate rushing production can help Baltimore sustain possessions, and Jacksonville has shown it can score in a hurry. This is a lean rather than a lock, with the Jaguars’ offensive form doing much of the work. Betting tip: Over 42.5 points at -115.
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3. Spread: Baltimore Ravens +8.5 (+1329)
The listed spread option is Baltimore +8.5 at +1329. Jacksonville is the stronger side on current form, but an 8.5-point cushion gives the home team room to stay within reach even if the Jaguars win. Baltimore’s recent results are poor, yet the Ravens have Henry, home-field advantage, and a roster that has shown it can produce points earlier this season.
This is the high-risk pick of the three. The price is unusually large, and the quarterback uncertainty is a substantial obstacle: a rookie making a start on a short week would be a major ask. The case for the Ravens is that the number offers a wide margin, not that Baltimore is the more likely outright winner. Betting tip: Ravens +8.5 at +1329, as a long-shot spread play.
Team Statistics: Ravens searching for a reset at home
Baltimore Ravens: 4-4 and trying to stop the slide
Baltimore enters Week 9 at 4-4, with a .500 win rate. The Ravens are fourth in the AFC North. Their home record is 1-2, so M&T Bank Stadium has not provided the usual cushion this season. Baltimore has scored 179 points through eight games, an average of 22.4 per game, and allowed 203, or about 25.4 per game.
The recent stretch is the bigger concern: Baltimore has lost three straight, scoring 10 points against Cleveland, 13 against Cincinnati, and 10 against Buffalo. That is 11 points per game across those three losses. The latest was a 36-10 loss to the Bills. With Jackson on injured reserve and Huntley’s availability in question, coach Jesse Minter faces a difficult preparation window on a short week. Henry remains a central piece of the offense, but Baltimore needs the passing game to give him room to work.
Jacksonville Jaguars: strong position in the AFC South
Jacksonville is 5-2, with a .714 win rate. The Jaguars have scored 196 points, averaging 28.0 per game, while allowing 111, or about 15.9 per game. Their +85 point differential is a meaningful contrast with Baltimore’s -24.
The Jaguars’ latest result was a commanding 42-7 home win over Indianapolis. Across the last five supplied results, Jacksonville is 4-1, with wins over the Colts, Eagles, Bengals, and Patriots, alongside a narrow loss to Houston. Their road record is listed as 1-1, so this will be a test away from home, but the recent form is compelling. Coach Liam Coen’s offense has the momentum, and Trevor Lawrence’s passing production is a major factor in the matchup. Based on the season totals provided, Jacksonville’s scoring pace is well ahead of Baltimore’s.
Key Player Statistics, Momentum and External Factors
The central storyline is Baltimore’s quarterback health. Jackson is expected to be out following surgery on his throwing thumb, Huntley has turf toe, and undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano may be in line to start after making his NFL debut against Buffalo. That uncertainty is magnified by the short turnaround to Thursday night. Derrick Henry is still a major factor, but Jacksonville can focus on limiting the run and asking the replacement quarterback to make difficult throws. The Jaguars have their own defensive absences, with Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco ruled out in the supplied report, so Baltimore could find opportunities. Still, Jacksonville’s 42-point Week 8 performance and stronger recent record make the visitors the more reliable side.
Last direct match: Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The latest head-to-head result was a 23-7 away win for Baltimore. Across the last five meetings, the Ravens have won three and Jacksonville two. That history gives Baltimore a reason for confidence, but current form and the reported quarterback situation are more relevant to this Week 9 matchup.
Performance last 5 matches
Baltimore’s latest five results: loss to Buffalo, loss to Cincinnati, loss to Cleveland, win over Atlanta, and win over Tennessee — two wins and three losses. Jacksonville’s latest five: win over Indianapolis, loss to Houston, win over Philadelphia, win over Cincinnati, and win over New England — four wins and one loss.
TrustnBet Tips summed up
Jacksonville has the stronger current form, the better scoring average, and the steadier quarterback situation, making the Jaguars moneyline our primary pick despite the short payout at -370. We lean Over 42.5 at -115, largely on Jacksonville’s scoring potential, while recognizing Baltimore’s quarterback uncertainty creates risk for the total. The Ravens +8.5 at +1329 is a long-shot spread choice based on the generous cushion, home field, and Henry’s ability to keep the offense moving. The clearest overall call is Jacksonville to win.
