New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions 11/15/2026
Detroit heads to Allianz Arena on Sunday, November 15, with a six-win record and a four-game winning streak. New England arrives after a tough 45-27 loss to Green Bay, though the Patriots had won three of their previous four games. The matchup sets up an interesting betting contrast: Detroit has the stronger recent run, while the Patriots’ offense has shown it can put points on the board.
The Lions are favored, but the suggested spread is short at Detroit -1.5, and the total is 50.5. That combination points to a close game with room for scoring. Our picks lean toward Detroit to win, the Lions to cover the small spread, and the teams to get over the total.
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Our 3 betting predictions for New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions
Main Pick: Over 50.5 total points at -108
This is the most appealing angle if you expect the game to open up. New England has scored 24 or more points in four of its last five games, including 27 against Green Bay despite taking the loss. That production gives the Patriots a path to contribute meaningfully even against a Detroit team that has been playing well.
Detroit’s recent scores have been more modest, with 19 points in each of its past two wins, but the Lions have also shown they can produce a big number: they scored 45 against Arizona in the five-game sample. For the over-to-cash, it doesn’t require an all-out shootout; a score in the neighborhood of 28-24 would get there. Betting tip: Over 50.5 points at -108.
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Pick 2: Detroit Lions moneyline at -120
Detroit is the more reliable side coming into this one. The Lions have won four straight, including a 19-9 road win over Miami and a 19-15 home win against Minnesota. Their 6-2 record and 75% win rate are stronger than New England’s 5-4 mark and 62.5% rate. The Patriots have lost two of their last five, most recently giving up 45 points to the Packers.
The Lions’ recent wins have been close rather than dominant, so this is not a pick that assumes a runaway. It is a call to back the team with better momentum and the stronger overall record to come through in a competitive game. Betting tip: Detroit Lions to win on the moneyline at -120.
Pick 3: Detroit Lions -1.5 at -105
A spread of 1.5 points asks Detroit to win by at least two. That’s a narrow threshold for a team that has won four in a row, and it avoids needing the Lions to create a comfortable margin. New England has been competitive in several recent games, so a larger spread would be harder to trust; at -1.5, Detroit’s form makes the number workable.
The Patriots’ 27-45 loss last week is a reminder that their defense can be vulnerable, while Detroit has held its last two opponents to 15 points or fewer. If the Lions can keep the game controlled and avoid giving New England short fields, the small spread is within reach. Betting tip: Detroit Lions -1.5 at -105.
Team Statistics: Detroit’s winning streak meets New England’s bounce-back test
Detroit comes in at 6-2, with a 75% win rate and a plus-33 point differential. The Lions have scored 222 points and allowed 189 through eight games, an average of 27.8 points scored and 23.6 allowed per game. They are 4-0 at home and 2-2 away in the season record.
In their latest outing, the Lions beat the Dolphins 19-9 on the road. Across their last five games, they are 4-1, including wins over Minnesota and Green Bay and a 45-21 win over Arizona. The recent stretch has shown two versions of Detroit: an offense capable of a big scoring day and a team willing to win a lower-scoring, field-position game.
New England is 5-4, with a 62.5% win rate and a plus-4 point differential. The Patriots have scored 211 points and allowed 207 through nine games, averaging 23.4 points scored and 23.0 allowed. Their supplied record lists them 4-0 at home and 2-3 away.
The Patriots’ latest result was a 45-27 home loss to Green Bay. They are 3-2 across their last five games, with wins over Miami, the Jets, and the Raiders, alongside losses to Chicago and Green Bay. New England has shown enough scoring potential to keep the over in play, but giving up 45 points last week raises questions about whether the defense can slow down Detroit.
Key player momentum and external factors
Detroit head coach Dan Campbell has his team on a four-game winning streak, and the Lions have been able to win both close games and more decisive ones during that run. New England is led by Mike Vrabel and will be looking to respond after allowing 45 points to Green Bay. The Patriots’ 27 points in that game show that the offense can still produce even when the result goes against them. Both teams are coming off Week 9 games, so the schedule gives them a standard week between matchups. The game is at Allianz Arena, making this an international setting rather than a typical home-field environment. Detroit’s listed home record is strong, but the venue should temper assumptions about a familiar crowd advantage.
Last direct match: Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots
The last direct meeting ended in a 29-0 home win for New England. Across the last five head-to-head meetings, the Patriots have won four and Detroit has won one. That history favors New England, but it should be weighed against the Lions’ current four-game winning streak and stronger 2026 record.
Performance last 5 matches
Detroit is 4-1 in its last five games, most recently beating Miami 19-9. New England is 3-2 in its last five, most recently losing to Green Bay 45-27.
TrustnBet Tips summed up
The picks favor Detroit because the Lions have the better record and enter on a four-game winning streak, while New England is coming off a high-scoring loss. The short spread keeps the Lions pick measured, rather than asking for a large margin. The over is the more aggressive read: New England’s recent scoring gives it a chance to help push the game beyond 50.5, even if Detroit controls the result. Our three betting tips are Over 50.5 points at -108, Detroit Lions moneyline at -120, and Detroit Lions -1.5 at -105.
