New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys 08/28/2026
Friday night, Aug 28, 2026, 8:00 PM, stadium listing currently unknown, and we’re closing out NFL Preseason Week 3 with New Orleans at Dallas. Preseason finales are always evaluation-heavy and variance-prone, but there’s still an edge if you track who’s healthy, who’s battling for jobs, and which staffs are actually pushing the tempo. Dallas has been sharp so far (2-0), while New Orleans has stumbled (0-2), including a shutout last time out. That form shows in the current moneyline: Dallas is priced as the favorite, New Orleans +117. My model leans Cowboys to win roughly 58% of the time (fair price about -138), but there’s also a decent case for a totals play and a value shot on the Saints catching the hook.
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Our 3 betting predictions for New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys
Main Pick: Totals – Over 37.5 Points
1) Over 37.5 points at -111. Why I like it: These finale games often tilt toward backups trying to impress, and explosive plays come when coverage rotations break down. Dallas is averaging 25.5 points per preseason game while allowing 10.0, and New Orleans is at 10.0 scored and 29.0 allowed. That’s a combined average of 35.5 points—close to this line—even before you factor in short fields from miscues and the ongoing Cowboys backup-QB duel. Joe Milton’s downfield arm showed up last game, and with Sam Howell also in the frame, Dallas should be aggressive enough to get us into the upper 30s. Probability and fair odds: I make the Over about 54% to cash. Betting tip: Take Over 37.5 at -111.
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Pick 2: Moneyline – Dallas Cowboys
2) Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys at -122. Why I like it: Preseason or not, Dallas has looked organized, and the QB2 battle is a legitimate motivator. Under coach Brian Schottenheimer’s direction this August, the offense has been efficient, balanced, and opportunistic. Meanwhile, New Orleans’ injury list is long and meaningful, which hurts depth reps—exactly where these games are won. Even with some uncertainty around which starters appear, Dallas has the healthier depth chart and better momentum—betting tip: Dallas ML at -122.
Pick 3: Spread – New Orleans Saints +3.5
3) Spread: New Orleans Saints +3.5 at -116. Why I like it: Yes, I’m picking Dallas on the moneyline and still grabbing the Saints with the hook. Preseason margins are tight, coaching staffs get conservative late, and +3.5 is a key number. New Orleans has struggled, but with roster hopefuls pushing snaps into the fourth quarter, this can easily be a late one-score finish. Betting tip: Take New Orleans +3.5 at -116.
Team Statistics and current form snapshot
Dallas Cowboys (home listing)
- Preseason record: 2-0 (100% win rate)
- Points per preseason game: 25.5 scored, 10.0 allowed (average margin +15.5)
- Last result: 34-13 road win at Arizona
- Home/away note: No home preseason games yet; both wins on the road.
- Passing/Rushing snapshot: In the most recent game, Joe Milton threw for 176 yards with two touchdowns, and also added a short rushing TD. Sam Howell completed 70% of his attempts in limited work but threw an end-zone interception—aggressive but risky. This QB2 race under Brian Schottenheimer incentivizes downfield looks and red-zone reps, a plus for totals.
- Turnover/defense note: Allowing just 10.0 points per game says the tackling and depth rotations are aligned. Single-game data points also suggest situational defense has held up in the red zone.
New Orleans Saints (away listing)
- Preseason record: 0-2 (0% win rate)
- Points per preseason game: 10.0 scored, 29.0 allowed (average margin -19.0)
- Last result: 0-34 road loss at the Rams
- Yardage profile (preseason average across two games): 285.0 total yards, 208.5 passing, 80.5 rushing
- Health and depth: The injury sheet is long, including notable names across both lines and skill spots, which complicates protection, run fits, and special teams coverage. New addition Zamir White is learning the system on the fly this week.
- RB/Kendre Miller context: Last season before injury, Miller averaged about 6.7 carries, 27.6 rushing yards, and 0.14 rushing TDs per game across seven appearances—useful context if he gets tuned-up snaps.
- Coaching: Kellen Moore’s offense is still forming its preseason identity amid injuries; we could see quick-game concepts to keep the pass rush at bay and simplified run looks to stabilize early downs.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Quarterbacks drive the angle: Dallas is actively evaluating Joe Milton vs. Sam Howell. Milton just showcased vertical shots; Howell brings starting experience. That urgency supports scoring. For New Orleans, Tyler Shough is taking first-team auditions with Zach Wilson and Spencer Rattler battling behind him.
- Injuries loom large for the Saints across RB/WR/DL, lowering depth quality late in quarters. – Coaching lens: Brian Schottenheimer has emphasized competition and reps; Kellen Moore may be more conservative with banged-up groups.
- External: Indoor venue vibe (stadium listing currently unknown for this match) removes weather noise. Travel for New Orleans is short. Final-cuts timing boosts intensity for roster-bubble players.
- Momentum: Dallas enters 2-0 with confidence; New Orleans is 0-2 and seeking stability.
Last direct match — Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints
The most recent head-to-head ended 44–19 in favor of New Orleans on the road. Different season, different stakes, but worth noting the Saints have won three of the last five in this series.
TrustnBet Tips summed up
Over 37.5 at -111: With Dallas pushing a live QB2 battle and New Orleans’ defense allowing 29.0 points per game this preseason, there’s a clear path to the high 30s. My model has this at 54% to clear, fair price around -117. Cowboys Moneyline at -122 (Novibet): Health, depth, and execution have favored Dallas through two outings. Schottenheimer’s offensive rhythm and a motivated QB room tilt win probability to about 58% (fair -138). That creates a small but real edge at the listed price. Saints +3.5 at -116: Preseason margins are volatile; the hook matters. Even with New Orleans’ injuries, late-game variance and two-minute scenarios can keep this inside a field goal. I make the cover probability about 52%.
Bottom line: We’re leaning Over as the most interesting angle, backing Dallas to get the win at a favorable price, and grabbing New Orleans +3.5 for cushion in a finale where rotations and fourth-quarter chaos can compress the margin. If you’re staking conservatively in August—as you should—split your exposure, respect the variance, and let the numbers and roster dynamics guide you.
