Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears 11/08/2026
Chicago comes into Sunday night at Soldier Field with the stronger record and a four-game winning streak, while Tampa Bay has put together back-to-back wins and is starting to look more dangerous than its 3-5 mark suggests. The Bears are 6-2, and their 34-17 road win over Seattle showed a team capable of moving the ball on offense and making life uncomfortable for an opponent’s quarterback. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are coming off a 16-0 shutout of Atlanta and have leaned heavily on a ground game that just produced a franchise-record 324 rushing yards.
The market favors Chicago, with the Bears listed at -250 on the moneyline and Tampa Bay at +251. That prices Chicago as the clear favorite, but the Buccaneers’ recent run game and turnover-making defense offer reasons to expect a competitive game. Our picks: Bears to win, Chicago to cover a shorter spread, and the total to go over 46.5 points.
Before you settle on a side, compare NFL betting odds for spreads, moneylines, and totals across the weekly slate.
Our 3 betting predictions for Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
1. Moneyline: Chicago Bears to win — 72% win probability
The Bears are the more reliable side on the season: 6-2 overall, with four wins in their last five games. Chicago has scored 34 points in each of its last two outings, beating New England 30-24 before taking down Seattle 34-17. Caleb Williams has been efficient in the supplied season snapshot, with six touchdown passes against one interception, and the Bears’ offense has shown it can find points through both the air and on the ground.
Tampa Bay has improved its form, but its 16-0 win over Atlanta came in an unusual weather game in which Baker Mayfield did not complete a pass. The rushing performance was impressive, but replicating that kind of one-dimensional output against Chicago is a different challenge. We make the Bears a 72% winner, which corresponds roughly to fair odds of -257. The available -250 is close to that estimate, and we still lean toward Chicago at home. Betting tip: Bears moneyline at -250.
2. Spread: Chicago Bears -5.5 — 55% cover probability
The supplied spread recommendation is Chicago -5.5 at -111. That’s a modest edge rather than a runaway call: Tampa Bay has won its last two games by a combined 46 points and has the sort of rushing attack that can keep the clock moving and shorten the game. But Chicago has covered its way through two strong performances, scoring at least 30 points in each, and has allowed only 17 points in its latest win.
The difference between the listed Bears moneyline and this spread matters. Chicago needs to win by six or more to cash the spread, so Tampa’s recent ability to run the ball makes the number less comfortable than simply backing the home team to win. Still, with the Bears’ recent scoring output and home-field advantage, laying 5.5 is a reasonable play. We put Chicago’s cover chance at 55%, a small lean over the implied probability at -111. Betting tip: Bears -5.5 at -111.
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3. Total: Over 46.5 points — 52% probability
The over is a narrow call, but Chicago’s recent games make it worth considering. The Bears scored 34 against Seattle and 30 against New England, while Tampa Bay put up 43 points against Carolina before its rain-soaked shutout win over Atlanta. That 16-0 result is an outlier for evaluating the Buccaneers’ scoring potential: the conditions were extreme, and the offense barely used its passing game.
The concern is clear. Tampa’s last game produced only 16 total points, and the Buccaneers may again prefer a run-heavy approach. But the Bears have been productive, and if Tampa’s offense can turn its recent rushing momentum into even a few scoring drives, the total has a path beyond 46.5. We estimate the over at 52%, just enough to make it our totals pick. Betting tip: Over 46.5 points at -111.
Team Statistics: Chicago Bears’ winning form gives them the edge
Chicago enters Week 9 with a 6-2 record and a .750 win percentage. Chicago is 3-1 at home, a useful foundation for a Sunday night game at Soldier Field.
The Bears have won four of their last five, including a 34-17 road win over Seattle. In the supplied game report, Caleb Williams completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions. D’Andre Swift added three rushing touchdowns, and Chicago gained 363 total yards. The defense held Seattle to 252 yards and just one conversion on 11 third-down attempts. Those figures point to a team that can win in more than one way: Chicago can lean on its quarterback, create offense on the ground, and force the opponent to work for first downs.
Through eight games, the Bears have scored 214 points and allowed 160, averaging 26.8 points scored and 20.0 allowed per game. Their season scoring total averages out to about 2.9 touchdowns per game, though touchdowns are only part of the story: field goals and extra points also contribute to the scoreboard. They have 6 wins and 2 losses, and the recent results suggest their current form is stronger than a simple season snapshot.
Team Statistics: Tampa Bay’s ground game is surging
Tampa Bay is 3-5, a .375 win percentage. In the NFL, the meaningful standings context is each club’s own conference and division. The Buccaneers’ home record is 1-4 in the season data provided, while they are 2-1 on the road. Their recent results have been better than their full-season record: they have won three of their last five and enter this matchup on a two-game winning streak.
The latest was a 16-0 home win over Atlanta, in which the Buccaneers rushed for 324 yards on 56 attempts. Bucky Irving ran for 170 yards and a touchdown, and Kenny Gainwell added 140 yards. Baker Mayfield finished with three pass attempts in the weather-affected game, so that performance should not be treated as a typical measure of Tampa Bay’s passing offense. The week before, Tampa beat Carolina 43-13, showing a much higher scoring ceiling.
Across eight games, Tampa has scored 178 points and allowed 151, an average of 22.3 points scored and 18.9 allowed per game. That works out to about 2.5 touchdowns scored per game on average, again with the reminder that total points also include field goals and extra points. The Buccaneers’ 582 rushing yards across their last two games are a major talking point, but Chicago will likely force Mayfield to contribute through the air if the Bears can slow the run early.
Key player statistics, momentum and external factors
Chicago’s Caleb Williams has been careful with the football in the supplied season figures: six touchdown passes and one interception through Week 8. He’ll face a Tampa defense described in the provided report as turnover-friendly, with 12 interceptions on the season. For the Buccaneers, Irving and Gainwell are coming off huge rushing performances, but the availability of receiver Emeka Egbuka and pass rusher Yaya Diaby was uncertain in the Wednesday injury update. Chicago also had several players listed as limited or not practicing, including running backs Kyle Monangai and Zavier Scott and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett.
Bears coach Ben Johnson gets the home matchup after Chicago’s convincing win in Seattle; Tampa is led by Todd Bowles. Soldier Field in November can bring cold or wind, but the actual forecast should be checked closer to kickoff. Conditions could affect the total and Tampa’s passing options.
Last direct match: Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The most recent head-to-head meeting ended with Tampa Bay winning 27-17 at home. Across the last five meetings, the Buccaneers hold a 3-2 edge. That history is a useful footnote, but Chicago’s current 6-2 record and recent offensive production are more relevant to this Week 9 handicap.
Performance in the last five games
Chicago has gone 4-1 in its last five, with wins over Seattle (34-17), New England (30-24), and Atlanta (31-23), plus a win over the Jets (23-12); its loss came against Green Bay (7-31).
Tampa Bay has gone 3-2 in its last five. The Buccaneers beat Atlanta 16-0 and Carolina 43-13, and also won 24-16 at Dallas. Their losses in that stretch came against Pittsburgh (19-26) and Green Bay (14-17).
TrustnBet tips summed up
Chicago’s stronger record, recent four-win run, home-field advantage, and steady scoring make the Bears the moneyline pick at -250. We also lean toward Chicago -5.5 at -111, though Tampa’s ground game is good enough to make the spread the more cautious of the two Bears selections. For the total, the over 46.5 at -111 gets a slight nod: Chicago has scored 30 or more in each of its last two games, and Tampa’s recent shutout came in extreme weather after a 43-point performance the week before.
Our three picks are Bears moneyline, Bears -5.5, and Over 46.5. The strongest straight-up case is Chicago; the spread and total are narrower plays, with Tampa’s rushing attack and the game-day conditions worth monitoring before kickoff.
