Montreal Canadiens @ Dallas Stars 10/29/2026
The Montréal Canadiens visit the Dallas Stars on Thursday, Oct. 29, at American Airlines Center. Dallas is looking to reset after a rough 5-1 loss to New Jersey that snapped a five-game winning streak. Montréal arrives with three straight wins, including a 2-0 road shutout of St. Louis, and has been getting results on the road.
The betting question is whether Dallas can turn home ice and its stronger defensive profile into a response—or whether the Canadiens can keep their road run rolling. Dallas is listed at -147 on the moneyline, while Montréal is +147. Our lean is toward the home side, with the total and puck-line picks offering two different ways to play the matchup.
Start with the market’s scoring expectations. Explore NHL totals and puck lines before digging into our picks.
Our Betting Predictions: Montréal Canadiens @ Dallas Stars
Main Pick: Total – Under 6.5 Goals
1. Under 6.5 goals (-125) — This is the preferred play. Dallas has allowed 25 goals across 12 games, an average of 2.08 per game, and Montréal has recently shown it can win with defense and strong goaltending. The Canadiens have averaged 3.17 goals for and 3.00 against per game this season, but the absence of captain Nick Suzuki is a meaningful hit to their offensive options. If Jake Oettinger gets the start, the matchup points toward a tighter game than the teams’ combined scoring averages alone might suggest. Bet: Under 6.5 goals at -125.
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Pick 2: Dallas Stars Moneyline
2. Dallas Stars moneyline (-147) — Montréal’s three-game winning streak deserves respect, and the Canadiens have been strong on the road. Still, Dallas has the home-ice edge, a more favorable goals-against average, and a strong netminder in Oettinger. Suzuki’s absence could make it harder for Montréal to sustain pressure and convert chances. We give Dallas a 60% win probability and Montréal a 40% chance. Bet: Dallas Stars to win at -147.
Pick 3: Spread – Dallas Stars -1.5
3. Dallas Stars -1.5 (+174) — This is the higher-risk option. The Stars have the scoring depth to create separation, and a bounce-back performance after Tuesday’s loss is plausible. But Montréal has been competitive on the road, so the two-goal margin is less secure than the straight moneyline. Bet: Dallas Stars -1.5 at +174, smaller stake.
Dallas Stars: Recent Form and Team Statistics
Dallas enters at 7-5 with 15 points. The Stars are 4-3 at home. Their 33 goals scored and 25 allowed through 12 games work out to 2.75 goals for and 2.08 against per game, with a plus-eight goal differential. Their last five results show four wins and one loss: wins over Chicago, Boston, Winnipeg and the Islanders, followed by Tuesday’s 5-1 home loss to New Jersey.
That latest result was an ugly one, but it doesn’t erase a solid stretch of hockey. Dallas had put together a five-game winning streak and has scored consistently during the season, averaging 2.75 goals per game. The defensive numbers are a strong part of the case for the Stars: the team has allowed just over two goals per game, and the provided matchup data lists Dallas at 22.2 shots against per game.
The special-teams and individual statistics available for this preview also favor Dallas defensively. Its penalty kill is listed at 92.9%, with opponents held off the board on 22 consecutive power-play chances dating back to Oct. 14. Jake Oettinger has been in excellent form according to the supplied information: a 1.43 goals-against average and three shutouts. The full-season shots-for average, team save percentage and faceoff-win rate were not provided, so they can’t be responsibly stated here. Dallas coach is listed as unavailable (“-”) in the match information.
Montréal Canadiens: Road Momentum and Team Statistics
Montréal has 16 points and a 7-5 record. They are 4-2 away from home, a useful mark heading into a challenging road game in Dallas. Across 12 games, they have scored 38 goals and allowed 36—an average of 3.17 goals for and 3.00 against per game. Their goal differential is plus two.
The Canadiens have won four of their last five, including each of their last three. They beat Chicago 4-1, edged Winnipeg 2-1, then shut out St. Louis 2-0. That run has been built on timely scoring and strong goaltending, with Jacob Fowler coming off a 46-save shutout against the Blues. The numbers supplied for Montréal do not include a full-season team save percentage, shots-for average, faceoff-win rate, or special-teams percentages, so those categories are not estimated here.
The biggest concern is the injury situation. Captain Nick Suzuki is out, taking a major playmaking presence and power-play option out of the lineup. Montréal has still won without him, but replacing his production and leadership is a substantial challenge against a Dallas team that has been effective at suppressing opposing power plays. The Canadiens will need their depth players to help carry the puck and create enough offense to make their strong recent results count.
Key Player Momentum and External Factors
Oettinger’s current form gives Dallas a major advantage in net, while Fowler’s recent shutout shows Montréal has a goalie capable of keeping the game close. On the Canadiens’ side, Suzuki’s absence is the central lineup factor: the supplied information says he had 12 points in nine games before his injury. Mike Matheson has returned from injury and contributed two assists in the latest game, which helps stabilize Montréal’s blue line. For Dallas, Jason Robertson is a key offensive threat after a two-goal game against the Islanders and a four-game run of multipoint performances. Esa Lindell is listed as out, and the availability of Sam Steel, Radek Faksa and David Perron is uncertain. Check confirmed lineups before placing a wager, especially for the Stars’ forward depth.
Last Direct Match: Dallas Stars vs. Montréal Canadiens
The supplied head-to-head information lists Montréal’s most recent win as a 4-3 result after extra time, with the Canadiens leading 2-1 after regulation. Across the last five meetings, Dallas has three wins and Montréal has two.
Performance in the Last Five Matches
Dallas: 4 wins, 1 loss. Montréal: 4 wins, 1 loss. Both teams enter with strong recent records, though the Canadiens are on a three-game winning streak and Dallas is coming off a 5-1 loss.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
The strongest angle is Under 6.5 goals at -125: Dallas has defended well over the season, and Montréal is missing its top center even while playing with confidence. The Dallas moneyline at -147 is the steadier side, supported by home ice and Oettinger’s excellent form. The Dallas -1.5 puck line at +174 has a more attractive payout but needs a two-goal win, so it carries extra risk. Our overall call: back Dallas to win, with the under as the preferred value play.
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