ATP Shanghai: Berrettini vs Nakashima Odds, Picks & How to Watch
Brandon Nakashima gets the shorter odds. Matteo Berrettini brings the bigger knockout punch. The American faces Berrettini in the Shanghai Masters second round, scheduled for Friday, October 9, 2026. It is a matchup that demands more thought than simply backing the higher-ranked player: Nakashima has the steadier backhand, while Berrettini’s serve and forehand can keep entire stretches of the match out of his opponent’s control.
Berrettini already has a comeback victory under his belt in Shanghai. Nakashima starts after a first-round bye. Our lean favors the American over the full match, but the Italian’s ability to protect serve makes a competitive opening set especially appealing.
Compare match winners, totals, and player props with our tennis betting market guide before choosing your approach.
Berrettini vs Nakashima Betting Odds
| Betting Market | Reference Line | Place Bet! |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Berrettini ML | +135 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Brandon Nakashima ML | -160 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 24.5 Games | -110 | -120 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
Expert Picks: Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima
🥇 Best Bet: First Set Over 9.5 Games
Berrettini’s first serve can keep Nakashima from building immediate return pressure, while the American has enough serving quality to protect his own early games. That combination points toward a competitive opener. Over 9.5 cash at 6-4, 7-5 or 7-6, giving this angle more flexibility than a bet requiring a tiebreak.
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Pick 2: Brandon Nakashima Moneyline
Nakashima gets the nod because his backhand should provide the more dependable rally pattern once Berrettini’s first attack is contained. The American can pressure that wing repeatedly without chasing low-percentage winners. Berrettini’s serve makes this dangerous, but Nakashima has the stronger case over a full match at a moderate favorite’s price.
Pick 3: Matteo Berrettini to Record the Most Aces
Berrettini’s clearest advantage comes from the delivery that lets him avoid a baseline exchange altogether. His height, pace, and serving angles should produce opportunities for untouched first serves, even if Nakashima wins more extended points. Take the Italian in this market only after checking the price and how ties are settled.
Pick 4: Brandon Nakashima to Win 2-1
Berrettini has enough serving firepower to take a set without controlling the entire match. Nakashima’s route is to stay patient, keep returns deep, and gradually make the Italian defend his backhand more often. A three-set American victory fits that progression, although the exact-score price must justify the added risk of losing.
Berrettini vs Nakashima Matchup Comparison
| Category | Matteo Berrettini | Brandon Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Country | Italy | United States |
| ATP Ranking | No. 46 | No. 19 |
| Age | 30 | 25 |
| Height | 6-foot-5 | 6-foot-2 |
| Career ATP Singles Titles | 10 | 1 |
| 2026 Tour-Level Record | 17-15 | 33-19 |
| Head-to-Head Wins | 1 | 0 |
Key Betting Trends and Matchup Notes
- Berrettini won their only recorded meeting at the 2022 Australian Open.
- Nakashima took a set in that encounter before losing in four.
- Berrettini’s Shanghai opener included a tiebreak and a deciding set.
- Nakashima enters after a first-round bye.
- The official tournament profiles show Nakashima with the stronger 2026 tour-level record.
- First-set over 9.5 games wins at 6-4, 7-5, or 7-6.
- Berrettini can win the ace count while Nakashima wins the match.
- The forecast favors a competitive contest, making a large favorite’s handicap less attractive.
Where to Watch Berrettini vs Nakashima in the US
- Date: Friday, October 9, 2026
- Round: Men’s singles second round / Round of 64
- Tournament: Rolex Shanghai Masters
- Location: Shanghai, China
- Surface: Hard court
- Streaming: Tennis TV, subject to subscription and regional availability
Final Prediction: Nakashima Wins the Longer Argument
Berrettini should have stretches when the serve lands, the forehand follows, and Nakashima barely gets a say. The American’s challenge is to stay composed through those games and capitalize when the Italian’s first-serve percentage dips.
Our forecast gives Nakashima the advantage in the repeated backhand exchanges and the deeper return games that develop as the match progresses. Berrettini’s firepower should earn him a set, but the American’s steadier rally patterns can decide the third.
- Prediction: Brandon Nakashima wins 6-7, 6-4, 6-4.
- Best bet: First set over 9.5 games.
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