US Open: Khachanov vs Tien Odds, Picks & How to Watch
Learner Tien has reached the US Open’s second week for the first time. His reward? A 6-foot-6 former semifinalist who suddenly looks dangerous again. The 20-year-old American faces Karen Khachanov on Monday, September 7, 2026, with a quarterfinal spot on the line. Tien owns the higher ranking and enters as the betting favorite, but Khachanov has dropped only one set through three rounds, and arrives considerably fresher.
Tien did not finish his five-set third-round escape until nearly 1:30 a.m. Sunday. Khachanov, meanwhile, dispatched Benjamin Bonzi in straight sets. That recovery gap makes the set and total-games markets especially interesting.
Looking beyond this matchup? Build your US Open card with our expert tennis betting picks today, tomorrow and beyond.
Khachanov vs Tien Betting Odds
| Market | Reference Line | Place Bet Now! |
|---|---|---|
| Karen Khachanov ML | +137 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Learner Tien ML | -175 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 40.5 Games | -120 | -120 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
Expert Picks: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien
🥇 Best Bet: Over 3.5 Sets
Tien is the rightful favorite, but Khachanov is playing too cleanly to expect a routine three-set exit. The veteran has won nine of ten sets and just eliminated Felix Auger-Aliassime. Tien’s returning and movement should eventually separate him, although Khachanov’s serve and forehand give the underdog a strong route to at least one set.
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Pick 2: Karen Khachanov +1.5 Sets
Khachanov has surrendered only 27 games across ten sets in New York. He also recovered from losing a first-set tiebreak to dominate Auger-Aliassime over the next three frames. Tien’s late five-set finish creates another opening. The American may advance, but asking him to win three sets before Khachanov wins two feels aggressive.
Pick 3: Over 40.5 Total Games
Four competitive sets can clear this number, while a fifth would put the over in a commanding position. Khachanov’s serve should prevent several one-sided frames, and Tien has already shown he can recover after losing momentum. Monday’s matchup looks more like a physical problem-solving exercise than a quick favorite’s sweep.
Pick 4: Tien to Win & Both Players to Win a Set
This combination offers a more attractive route than laying Tien’s straight moneyline. The American owns the superior 2026 form, can absorb Khachanov’s pace and is already 5-0 in career five-set matches. Khachanov should make him work, but Tien’s consistency and home-crowd support can carry him through four or five sets.
Khachanov vs Tien Matchup Comparison
| Category | Karen Khachanov | Learner Tien |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Ranking | No. 50 | No. 15 |
| Age | 30 | 20 |
| Height | 6’6” | 5’11” |
| 2026 Record | 18-18 | 28-15 |
| Sets Won at This US Open | 9 | 9 |
| Sets Lost at This US Open | 1 | 2 |
| Best Grand Slam Result | Semifinal | Quarterfinal |
| Best US Open Result | Semifinal, 2022 | Round of 16, 2026 |
Key Betting Trends
- Tien enters as the -175 moneyline favorite.
- Khachanov has won nine of ten sets at this US Open.
- Tien has won nine of eleven sets.
- Khachanov has conceded only 27 games through three rounds.
- Tien has won the opening set in all three matches.
- Tien is 5-0 in completed five-set matches.
- His victory over Mensik lasted three hours and 24 minutes.
- Khachanov has played just one set beyond 6-4.
- Khachanov defeated third-seeded Auger-Aliassime in four sets.
- Tien has reached the US Open fourth round for the first time.
- Khachanov reached the US Open semifinals in 2022.
- This will be their first tour-level meeting.
Where to Watch Khachanov vs Tien in the US
- Date: Monday, September 7, 2026
- Round: Men’s Round of 16
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN App and ESPN Unlimited
- Spanish coverage: ESPN Deportes
- Radio: SiriusXM channel 392
Final Prediction: Can Tien Survive Another Marathon?
The market expects Tien’s ranking, movement and season-long consistency to overcome Khachanov’s superior size and experience. That is probably correct—but the path could be uncomfortable. Khachanov is serving well, striking the forehand with conviction and reaching the fourth round with more fuel in the tank. He should control enough short points to force Tien into another extended match.
Tien’s edge appears when rallies move beyond the initial exchange. His balance, compact backhand and ability to redirect pace can gradually pull Khachanov out of position. If the American’s legs hold up, those advantages should become more important late. Expect the veteran to win the opening set and push Tien to the limit before the home favorite survives another five-set test.
- Prediction: Learner Tien wins 6-7, 7-5, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
- Best Bet: Over 3.5 Sets
- Set Handicap: Karen Khachanov +1.5 Sets
- Combination Pick: Tien to Win and Both Players to Win a Set
- Game Total: Over 40.5 Games
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