US Open: Medvedev vs Gorzny Odds, Picks & How to Watch
Sebastian Gorzny has already authored the kind of US Open story that usually ends with a standing ovation. The world No. 731 saved five match points, stunned Raphael Collignon and collected his first tour-level victory in a five-set thriller.
His reward is Daniil Medvedev. The 2021 champion dismissed Hugo Gaston in straight sets after arriving in New York with one win during the North American swing. Medvedev has rediscovered his control, but the market may be demanding too much against a 6-foot-4 American wildcard playing without fear.
Ready for another packed US Open slate? Use our expert tennis betting guide to compare spreads, totals and set markets before building your card.
Medvedev vs Gorzny Betting Odds
| Betting Market | Reference Odds | Place Bet Now! |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev ML | -3333 | Place Bet @ FanDuel |
| Sebastian Gorzny ML | +1650 | Place Bet @ FanDuel |
| O/U | 29.5 Games | -105 | -115 | Place Bet @ FanDuel |
Expert Picks: Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Gorzny
🥇 Best Bet: Sebastian Gorzny +8.5 Games
Gorzny does not need to threaten the upset to cover this number. Three sets containing ten or eleven total games would be enough. His 12-ace performance against Collignon, one-handed backhand, and willingness to attack should produce short holds. Medvedev can dominate the rallies without winning every set by two breaks, making the underdog cushion attractive.
Planning to bet on Wednesday’s US Open slate? Check the latest FanDuel deposit bonus before locking in your tennis picks.
Pick 2: Over 28.5 Total Games
A straight-sets Medvedev victory can still push this total over. Gorzny needs only ten games if the favorite reaches 18, and the American has enough first-strike power to keep two sets competitive. Medvedev’s opening win over Gaston produced 28 games; a slightly stronger serving opponent can add the one or two games this line requires.
Pick 3: Daniil Medvedev to Win 3-0
Gorzny’s comeback against Collignon was impressive, but exposed how frequently his serve can come under pressure. He faced 22 break points and required five sets across two days. Medvedev returned sharply against Gaston and should force more extended exchanges. The wildcard can protect the spread while still losing all three sets to the former champion.
Pick 4: Gorzny Over 9.5 Total Games
This player total offers a cleaner target than asking Gorzny to win a set. He collected 25 games against Collignon and needs only ten here. Medvedev’s deep return position can surrender early court space, allowing Gorzny to serve-plus-one effectively. Scores of 6-4, 6-3 and 6-4 would clear the number without creating any serious upset pressure.
Medvedev vs Gorzny Matchup Comparison
| Category | Daniil Medvedev | Sebastian Gorzny |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Ranking | No. 8 | No. 731 |
| Age | 30 | 22 |
| Height | 6’6” | 6’4” |
| 2026 Record | 31-15 | First ATP win at US Open |
| 2026 ATP Titles | 2 | 0 |
| Career ATP Titles | 23 | 0 |
| Best US Open Result | Champion, 2021 | Second Round, 2026 |
Key Betting Trends
- Medvedev owns a 31-15 singles record in 2026.
- The former world No. 1 has won two titles this season.
- Medvedev defeated Gaston 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 in Round 1.
- He struck 34 winners during that straight-sets victory.
- Medvedev entered the US Open only 1-3 during the North American swing.
- Gorzny saved five match points against Collignon.
- The American hit 12 aces but committed six double faults.
- Gorzny converted five of 13 break opportunities.
- He faced 22 break points and saved 17.
- Gorzny and Medvedev have never previously met.
- Medvedev won the 2021 US Open and reached the finals in 2019 and 2023.
- Gorzny is playing his first Grand Slam main draw.
Where to Watch Medvedev vs Gorzny in the US
- Date: Wednesday, September 2, 2026
- Round: Second Round/Round of 64
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York
- TV: ESPN and ESPN2
- Streaming: ESPN App and ESPN Unlimited
- Spanish coverage: ESPN Deportes
Final Prediction: Will Gorzny Trouble the Former Champion?
Gorzny has already achieved more in New York than anyone reasonably expected. He earned his wildcard, eliminated a Top 40 opponent, and survived five match points in his Grand Slam debut. There should be enough confidence left to make portions of this match competitive.
Medvedev remains a completely different assignment. His return position will neutralize some of Gorzny’s serving power, while his defense will force the American to hit additional attacking shots under pressure. Gorzny should hold often enough to protect a wide spread and push the total beyond 28.5. Winning a set is less likely. Expect Medvedev to control every set without turning the match into a complete rout.
- Prediction: Daniil Medvedev wins 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
- Best Bet: Sebastian Gorzny +8.5 Games
- Totals Play: Over 28.5 Games
- Set Pick: Daniil Medvedev to Win 3-0
- Player Total: Sebastian Gorzny Over 9.5 Games
| Curious about betting predictions for other sports? | |
|---|---|
| 🏟️ Expert betting predictions all Sports | 🚀 Parlay bet picks |
| 🏈 NFL expert picks | 🏀 NBA expert picks |
| 🏒 NHL picks | ⚽ Soccer predictions |
| 🏁 Nascar predictions | 🎾 Tennis expert predictions |
| 🥊 UFC predictions |
