US Open: Pegula vs Cîrstea Odds, Picks & Where to Watch Live
The rematch did not take long. Just 18 days after Jessica Pegula survived Sorana Cîrstea in a 7-5 deciding set at Cincinnati, they meet again on Sunday, September 6, with a US Open quarterfinal waiting for the winner.
Pegula is the clear favorite, but this is no routine fourth-round assignment. Cîrstea has not dropped a set in New York, dismantled No. 19 seed Jasmine Paolini in Round 3, and is producing some of the cleanest tennis of her farewell season. The moneyline points toward the American. The recent evidence suggests the better betting opportunities may sit in the total, handicap, and set markets.
Stay ahead of the next serve with our expert tennis betting picks for today, tomorrow, and beyond, featuring predictions, best bets, and value markets.
Pegula vs Cîrstea Betting Odds
| Market | Reference Line | Place Bet Now! |
|---|---|---|
| Jessica Pegula ML | -292 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Sorana Cîrstea ML | +250 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 23.5 Games | +145 | -182 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
Expert Picks: Jessica Pegula vs Sorana Cîrstea
🥇 Best Bet: Over 21.5 Total Games
Cîrstea pushed Pegula through 30 games in Cincinnati, winning the middle set before falling 7-5 in the third. Her New York form strengthens the over: six consecutive sets won, only 16 games conceded, and seven aces against Paolini. Three sets cash this comfortably, while two competitive sets can still threaten the number.
Pick 2: Sorana Cîrstea +3.5 Games
The underdog does not need another upset to cover. She needs to keep the final margin within three games. Cîrstea covered that number in the Cincinnati rematch and arrives with substantially cleaner tournament results. Her early ball-striking can rush Pegula, while one close set or a set victory could make this handicap difficult for the favorite to clear.
Planning to bet the rematch? Check the latest BetMGM Bonus Code before locking in your US Open picks.
Pick 3: Jessica Pegula Moneyline
The price is heavy, but Pegula remains the more dependable match winner. She leads their tour-level series 2-0 and showed against Leylah Fernandez that she can adjust after a terrible start. Her compact backhand, controlled court positioning, and superior ability to defend without surrendering the baseline give her more routes through a long match.
Pick 4: Jessica Pegula to Win 2-1
This is the aggressive alternative to Pegula’s moneyline. Their Cincinnati match followed the same script, with Pegula winning the first set, Cîrstea striking back, and the American surviving the decider. Cîrstea is serving too well to dismiss, but Pegula’s composure and return quality should become more influential if the match reaches a third set.
Pegula vs Cîrstea Matchup Comparison
| Category | Jessica Pegula | Sorana Cîrstea |
|---|---|---|
| WTA ranking | No. 3 | No. 17 |
| Age | 32 | 36 |
| Height | 5’7” | 5’9” |
| 2026 record entering US Open | 45-12 | 36-13 |
| 2026 singles titles | 2 | 1 |
| Best US Open result | Finalist, 2024 | Quarterfinalist, 2023 |
| Sets lost this tournament | 1 | 0 |
| Tour-level head-to-head | Leads 2-0 | Trails 0-2 |
Key Betting Trends
- Pegula has reached at least the US Open semifinals in each of the previous two years.
- She won her opening two matches in straight sets.
- Pegula recovered from a one-set deficit against Fernandez in Round 3.
- She converted all three of her break opportunities against Fernandez.
- Cîrstea has won all six sets played in New York.
- The Romanian has conceded only 16 games across three matches.
- Cîrstea recorded seven aces and landed 72% of her first serves against Paolini.
- Pegula won their Cincinnati meeting 6-2, 4-6, 7-5.
- That Cincinnati match produced 30 total games.
- Pegula leads their tour-level head-to-head 2-0 and the overall series 3-0 when their 2015 ITF match is included.
Pegula vs Cîrstea Head-to-Head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 19, 2026 | Cincinnati | Hard | Jessica Pegula | 6-2, 4-6, 7-5 |
| Apr. 30, 2021 | Madrid | Clay | Jessica Pegula | 7-6(5), 6-3 |
Pegula leads the tour-level series 2-0. She also defeated Cîrstea at an ITF tournament in Midland in 2015, making the complete professional record 3-0.
The Cincinnati match matters far more than the older results. It was played on a North American hard court less than three weeks ago, and Cîrstea came within two games of forcing a deciding-set tiebreak.
Where to Watch Pegula vs Cîrstea in the US
- Date: Sunday, September 6, 2026
- Round: Fourth Round/Round of 16
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York
- TV coverage: ABC during the afternoon window and ESPN during primetime
- Streaming: ESPN App
- Spanish-language coverage: ESPN Deportes
Final Prediction: Can Cîrstea Push Pegula Again?
This price would feel easier to accept if their Cincinnati match had never happened. It did, and Cîrstea proved that her direct, aggressive tennis can trouble Pegula on a hard court. She has since arrived in New York, won six straight sets, and produced her sharpest performance against the strongest opponent on her path.
Pegula should still have the final answer. She returns more consistently, changes direction more safely, and owns the superior defensive floor. If Cîrstea’s first-serve percentage falls or her forehand begins leaking errors, Pegula can turn that brief dip into a decisive run of games. Expect another competitive rematch, with Cîrstea taking a set before Pegula’s steadiness wins the final hour.
- Prediction: Jessica Pegula wins 6-4, 4-6, 6-3
- Best Bet: Over 21.5 Games
- Handicap Pick: Sorana Cîrstea +3.5 Games
- Winner Pick: Jessica Pegula Moneyline
- Set Pick: Jessica Pegula to Win 2-1
| Curious about betting predictions for other sports? | |
|---|---|
| 🏟️ Expert betting predictions all Sports | 🚀 Parlay bet picks |
| 🏈 NFL expert picks | 🏀 NBA expert picks |
| 🏒 NHL picks | ⚽ Soccer predictions |
| 🏁 Nascar predictions | 🎾 Tennis expert predictions |
| 🥊 UFC predictions |
