US Open: Sabalenka vs Pegula Odds, Picks & How to Watch
New York gets the trilogy Thursday night. Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula return to Arthur Ashe Stadium on September 10, two years after contesting the final and one year after meeting in the semifinals. Sabalenka won both, but neither was routine. Pegula’s early ball striking is built to borrow the defending champion’s pace, while Sabalenka owns the bigger serve and heavier finishing shot. Both escaped three-set quarterfinals, leaving freshness and first-serve control as major betting variables. The market favors Sabalenka; recent history says bettors should expect resistance before New York crowns its first finalist.
Ready for Thursday’s showdown? Use our expert tennis betting guide to compare spreads, totals, and set markets before building your US Open card.
Sabalenka vs Pegula Betting Odds
| Market | Reference Line | Place Bet! |
|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka ML | -180 | Place Bet @ FanDuel |
| Jessica Pegula ML | +150 | Place Bet @ FanDuel |
| O/U | 22.5 Games | -110 | -125 | Place Bet @ FanDuel |
Expert Picks: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
🥇 Best Bet: Over 22.5 Total Games
Their two previous US Open meetings produced 24 and 29 games, with neither player able to separate comfortably. Both needed three sets in the quarterfinals, and Pegula’s compact timing lets her redirect Sabalenka’s pace without surrendering court position. One extended set should put the over in a strong position.
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Pick 2: Jessica Pegula +4.5 Games
Pegula stayed within four games in the 2024 final and three in last year’s semifinal, so this cushion would have covered both New York meetings. Sabalenka remains the likelier winner, but her quarterfinal escape against Noskova offered little evidence that another runaway score is coming against an opponent who redirects pace this cleanly.
Pick 3: First Set Over 9.5 Games
Four of their last five meetings opened with at least 10 games, including 7-5 in the 2024 US Open final and 6-4 in last year’s semifinal. Pegula’s return quality should prevent cheap Sabalenka holds, while the American’s own first-strike timing makes an immediate runaway unlikely. Expect one break, not two.
Pick 4: Aryna Sabalenka to Win 2-1
Pegula’s return positioning and ability to change direction should earn her stretches of control, especially if Sabalenka presses after a loose service game. The deciding set is where the champion’s heavier serve and streak of 22 consecutive Grand Slam tiebreak wins matter most. Sabalenka has repeatedly found the final surge in New York.
Sabalenka vs Pegula Matchup Comparison
| Category | Aryna Sabalenka | Jessica Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| WTA Ranking | No. 1 | No. 3 |
| Age | 28 | 32 |
| Height | 6’0” | 5’7” |
| Grand Slam Singles Titles | 4 | 0 |
| US Open Singles Titles | 2 | 0 |
| Consecutive US Open Semifinals | 6 | 3 |
| 2026 Quarterfinal Result | Beat Noskova in three sets | Beat Navarro in three sets |
| Head-to-Head | Leads 9-4 | Trails 4-9 |
| Previous US Open Meetings | Leads 2-0 | Trails 0-2 |
A Rivalry That Keeps Returning to New York
Sabalenka owns the overall series, but Pegula has made the rivalry increasingly competitive.
| Tournament | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Berlin Semifinal | Jessica Pegula | 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-0 |
| 2025 WTA Finals | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 |
| 2025 Wuhan Semifinal | Jessica Pegula | 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(2) |
| 2025 US Open Semifinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 2024 US Open Final | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-5, 7-5 |
Key Betting Trends
- Sabalenka leads the career head-to-head 9-4.
- Pegula has won two of their last three meetings.
- Four of their previous five matches went three sets.
- Four of those five matches opened with at least 10 games.
- Both previous US Open meetings cleared 22.5 total games.
- Sabalenka enters with 19 consecutive US Open victories.
- She has won 22 straight Grand Slam tiebreaks.
- Sabalenka is appearing in her sixth consecutive US Open semifinal.
- Pegula has reached the semifinals in New York for a third straight year.
- Pegula became the first WTA player to record 50 match wins in 2026 after beating Emma Navarro.
- Both players needed three sets to survive their quarterfinals.
Where to Watch Sabalenka vs Pegula in the US
- Date: Thursday, September 10, 2026
- Round: Women’s Singles Semifinal
- Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium
- Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN App and ESPN Unlimited
- Spanish-language coverage: ESPN Deportes
Final Prediction: Does Sabalenka Survive the Trilogy?
Pegula is too accomplished and too comfortable redirecting pace for this to become a routine Sabalenka victory. Her compact return should create pressure, and the New York crowd can help her ride any opening from the defending champion.
Sabalenka still owns the superior finishing weapons. Her first serve provides easier escape routes, while her forehand can end exchanges that Pegula must build patiently. After surviving Noskova, she should be ready for another long night. Expect Pegula to take a set and remain inside the game spread before Sabalenka’s power decides the final stretch.
- Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka wins 6-4, 4-6, 6-3
- Best Bet: Over 22.5 Total Games
- Spread Pick: Jessica Pegula +4.5 Games
- Set Pick: First Set Over 9.5 Games
- Match Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to Win 2-1
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