US Open: Safiullin vs Alcaraz Odds, Picks & How to Watch Live
The US Open draw could have handed Carlos Alcaraz a gentle return. Instead, it gave him the last player to beat him in straight sets on a hard court.
The defending champion faces Roman Safiullin in the first round on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Alcaraz has not played a singles match since April because of a right-wrist injury. Safiullin is ranked No. 98, but his power, previous victory in this matchup and recent Wimbledon run make the set markets far more interesting than Alcaraz’s enormous moneyline.
Looking beyond this matchup? Our expert tennis betting guide covers Grand Slam spreads, totals and set-betting markets.
Safiullin vs Alcaraz Betting Odds
| Market | Reference Odds | Place Bet! |
|---|---|---|
| Roman Safiullin ML | +510 | Place Bet @ FanDuel |
| Carlos Alcaraz ML | -665 | Place Bet @ FanDuel |
| O/U | 36.5 Games | -109 | -112 | Place Bet @ FanDuel |
Expert Picks: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz
🥇 Best Bet: Roman Safiullin +2.5 Sets
Safiullin does not need the upset; he needs one set. Alcaraz is playing his first singles match since April after a right-wrist injury, and his brief mixed-doubles return exposed timing issues. Safiullin has already beaten him on a hard court and pushed Djokovic across four sets at Wimbledon. One strong serving stretch can cover.
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Pick 2: Carlos Alcaraz to Win 3-1
Alcaraz remains the better mover, returner and problem-solver. Once his timing settles, he can drag Safiullin into uncomfortable defensive positions and expose the Russian’s movement with angles and drop shots. The injury layoff makes a flawless straight-set victory difficult to trust, but Alcaraz should possess enough variety and stamina to close in four.
Pick 3: Roman Safiullin +7.5 Games
A 7.5-game cushion allows Safiullin to cover without winning a set, although the prediction gives him one. He can create quick holds when his first serve lands and attack Alcaraz before rallies become physical. The Russian also covered this number in both previous meetings, losing by only four games during their 2024 Olympic encounter.
Pick 4: First Set Over 9.5 Games
Alcaraz may require several games to rediscover his singles rhythm after more than four months away. Safiullin should attack immediately, protecting serve with first-strike tennis before the favorite settles into the matchup. A single break producing a 6-4 set is enough, while early holds from both players could push the opener toward a tiebreak.
Safiullin vs Alcaraz Head-to-Head
The series is tied 1-1, with the surface winner changing each time.
| Tournament | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Paris Masters | Indoor hard | Roman Safiullin | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 2024 Paris Olympics | Clay | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4, 6-2 |
Safiullin’s 2023 victory was no lucky escape. He broke Alcaraz repeatedly, controlled the baseline with flatter groundstrokes and completed the upset in straight sets.
Alcaraz responded nine months later on clay, using his movement and variety to win comfortably at Roland Garros. Sunday’s faster hard court should give Safiullin more help than their Olympic setting did.
Tale of the Tape
| Category | Roman Safiullin | Carlos Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| ATP ranking | No. 98 | No. 3 |
| US Open seed | Unseeded | No. 2 |
| Age | 29 | 23 |
| Height | 6’1” | 6’0” |
| 2026 record | 32-13* | 22-3 |
| 2026 titles | Two Challengers | Two ATP titles |
| Career ATP titles | 0 | 26 |
| Best US Open result | Second round | Champion |
| Head-to-head wins | 1 | 1 |
Key Betting Trends
- The head-to-head series is tied 1-1.
- Safiullin won their only hard-court meeting 6-3, 6-4.
- Alcaraz covered the game spread in neither previous matchup.
- Alcaraz enters with a 22-3 record and two titles in 2026.
- He is playing his first singles match in more than four months.
- The Spaniard owns a 24-3 career record at the US Open.
- Alcaraz won the tournament in 2022 and 2025.
- Safiullin reached Wimbledon’s fourth round as a qualifier.
- The Russian took one set from Djokovic in that fourth-round defeat.
- Safiullin has won back-to-back Challenger titles this season.
- He has reached the US Open second round in each of his three previous appearances.
- Safiullin has never lost a US Open first-round match.
Where to Watch Safiullin vs Alcaraz in the US
- Date: Sunday, August 30, 2026
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, New York
- TV: ESPN or ESPN2, depending on court assignment
- Streaming: Every court through the ESPN App with ESPN Unlimited
- Additional streaming: Select opening-day matches may be available on Disney+
- Spanish coverage: ESPN Deportes
Final Prediction
Safiullin is far more dangerous than his No. 98 ranking suggests. He has beaten Alcaraz on a hard court, rediscovered confidence during his Wimbledon run and possesses enough first-strike power to expose the favorite’s early rust.
Expect him to take advantage before Alcaraz settles. The defending champion should eventually find his range, increase his return pressure and force Safiullin to hit increasingly difficult shots while moving. Alcaraz’s variety and five-set experience will separate them, but not without a genuine opening-round examination.
- Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz wins 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
- Best Bet: Roman Safiullin +2.5 Sets
- Exact-Result Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to Win 3-1
- Game Spread: Roman Safiullin +7.5 Games
- First-Set Pick: Over 9.5 Games
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