Thirteen years after their first meeting, Conor McGregor and Max Holloway finally run it back on Saturday, July 11, 2026, in the main event of UFC 329 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

The first fight came before either man became a UFC champion. This one arrives at a very different stage of their careers. McGregor returns after a five-year absence, searching for his first victory since 2020. Holloway has remained one of the sport’s most active and durable stars, facing elite competition while defending his BMF status.

For bettors, the storyline is clear: Can McGregor recreate the magic one last time, or does Holloway’s pace and activity overwhelm the returning superstar? Get the latest UFC MMA fight predictions, featuring expert picks, prop bets, betting insights, and value plays for every UFC event.

McGregor vs Holloway Odds Outlook

Fight Lines	Odds	Bet Now!
Conor McGregor ML	+170	Place Bet @ FanDuel
Max Holloway ML	-205	Place Bet @ FanDuel
O/U | 4.5 Rounds	+300 | -425	Place Bet @ FanDuel

Expert UFC Picks: McGregor vs Holloway Top 3 Bets

🥇 Best Bet: Max Holloway by KO/TKO (-115)

Holloway’s relentless pace is tailor-made to expose McGregor’s biggest question mark—conditioning after five years away. If the Irishman doesn’t land early, Holloway’s volume should steadily overwhelm him before forcing a late stoppage. Best Bet: Max Holloway by KO/TKO (-115 at FanDuel Sportsbook).

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Pick 2: Fight Doesn’t Start Round 4

Both fighters possess legitimate finishing paths. McGregor remains explosive early, while Holloway’s pressure becomes increasingly dangerous as opponents fade. Rather than picking a side, backing the fight to end before Round 4 captures both likely scenarios. Pick: Fight Doesn’t Start Round 4.

Pick 3: Max Holloway Moneyline (-205)

The price isn’t cheap, but Holloway checks every important betting box. He’s younger, active, battle-tested against elite opponents, and owns one of the best gas tanks in MMA. McGregor’s long layoff creates too many unanswered questions to ignore. Safer Pick: Max Holloway Moneyline (-205).

Tale of the Tape

Category	Conor McGregor	Max Holloway
Record	22-6	27-9
Age	37	34
Height	5’9″	5’11”
Reach	74″	69″
Stance	Southpaw	Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed/Min	5.32	6.91
Striking Accuracy	56.40%	49.91%
Takedown Average	0.67	0.23

Matchup Breakdown

Striking Edge: Holloway

McGregor remains the more explosive puncher, but Holloway throws nearly seven significant strikes per minute and rarely slows down. His constant pressure, combinations, and elite cardio become increasingly difficult to deal with over five rounds.

Power Edge: McGregor

Nineteen of McGregor’s 22 victories have come by knockout. Even after five years away, his left hand remains the biggest one-punch weapon in the fight.

Cardio Edge: Holloway

This is the biggest mismatch. Holloway has continued fighting elite competition while McGregor hasn’t competed since 2021. Over five rounds, the Hawaiian should own a massive conditioning advantage.

McGregor vs Holloway 2 Stats & Facts

• McGregor hasn’t won since January 2020.
• McGregor returns after a five-year layoff.
• Holloway has fought eight times since McGregor’s last appearance.
• McGregor defeated Holloway by decision in 2013.
• Holloway lands 6.91 significant strikes per minute.
• McGregor has won 19 career fights by knockout.

Where to Watch

• Event: UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
• Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
• Main Card: 9:00 PM ET
• Streaming: Paramount+

Final Prediction

Expect vintage McGregor early. The Irishman should explode out of the gate looking for the knockout before Holloway settles into his rhythm. But after years away from competition, maintaining that pace against one of the highest-volume strikers in UFC history feels unrealistic.

Once Holloway survives the opening danger, the momentum should swing heavily in his favor. His pressure, durability, and cardio eventually break down McGregor before the championship rounds.

• Prediction: Max Holloway wins by TKO
• ✅ Best Bet: Max Holloway by KO/TKO (-125)
• 🔥 Value Play: Fight Doesn’t Start Round 4
• 💰 Safer Pick: Max Holloway Moneyline (-205)

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