UFC Sacramento: Hernandez vs Rodrigues Odds, Picks & Live Streaming
Anthony Hernandez turns every fight into a bill that comes due later. He pressures, shoots, scrambles, and makes opponents pay interest with every exhausted minute. Gregory Rodrigues offers the opposite threat: one clean hook can erase an entire game plan.
On Saturday, August 22, 2026, those styles collide over five rounds at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. Hernandez has home-state momentum and elite pace. Rodrigues has 12 knockouts and a three-fight surge. This main event may start technical, but it is unlikely to finish politely.
Looking for more fight-night value? Our expert UFC fight betting guide breaks down the latest odds, props and betting markets across every card.
Hernandez vs Rodrigues Betting Odds
| Fight Lines | Best Odds | Place Bet! |
|---|---|---|
| Hernandez ML | -165 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Rodrigues ML | +140 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 2.5 Rounds | -110 | -120 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
Expert UFC Picks: Hernandez vs Rodrigues
🥇 Best Bet: Anthony Hernandez Moneyline
Hernandez owns the more dependable five-round process. He averages 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes, chains attempts together and forces opponents to work during every escape. Rodrigues can threaten early, but Hernandez’s pressure, cardio and late-round control give the favorite the clearer route across 25 minutes.
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Pick 2: Fight Does Not Go the Distance
Rodrigues carries 12 knockout wins, while Hernandez has nine submissions and multiple late stoppages. Both men have also lost by strikes. With five rounds available, the Brazilian’s early power and Hernandez’s accumulating wrestling pressure create clear finishing threats at opposite ends of this main-event matchup.
Pick 3: Anthony Hernandez by KO/TKO
Rodrigues has never been submitted but has suffered four knockout losses. Hernandez can weaponize takedowns without chasing a tap, using mat returns and ground strikes to drain the Brazilian. A referee stoppage matches victories over Michel Pereira and the damage-based path Jared Cannonier previously exposed.
Pick 4: Gregory Rodrigues to Win in Rounds 1 or 2
Rodrigues is most dangerous before Hernandez establishes his wrestling rhythm. His hooks, knees and uppercuts can punish predictable entries, while two of his three wins ended by first-round knockout. This play targets the Brazilian’s strongest window without trusting his cardio across a prolonged main-event grind.
Hernandez vs Rodrigues Tale of the Tape
| Category | Hernandez | Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Professional record | 15-3-0 | 19-6-0 |
| UFC ranking | No. 6 | No. 12 |
| Country | United States | Brazil |
| Age | 32 | 34 |
| Height | 6’0” | 6’3” |
| Reach | 75” | 75” |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Significant strikes landed/minute | 4.57 | 5.53 |
| Significant-strike accuracy | 65.88% | 53.28% |
| Significant strikes absorbed/minute | 3.11 | 4.88 |
| Takedown accuracy | 48.21% | 34.88% |
Key Betting Takeaways
- Hernandez’s eight-fight winning streak ended against Sean Strickland.
- Rodrigues has won three consecutive fights.
- The Brazilian has secured two first-round knockouts during that run.
- Hernandez averages 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- Rodrigues owns 75% takedown defense.
- Hernandez has nine career submission victories.
- Rodrigues has never been submitted professionally.
- Rodrigues owns 12 knockouts but has suffered four knockout losses.
- Hernandez has recorded finishes in Rounds 4 and 5.
- The fight is scheduled for five rounds.
Where to Watch UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues
- Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026
- Venue: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
- U.S. streaming: Paramount+
Final Prediction
Rodrigues is the more dangerous striker and may own the first round. His power, size and counter uppercut can punish Hernandez whenever the favorite enters without preparation.
Hernandez should gradually remove that space. Expect him to force clinches, attack repeated takedowns and make Rodrigues carry his weight. The Brazilian’s defense can survive the early attempts, but Hernandez rarely stops working after one failed shot. By the championship rounds, the accumulated pressure should create extended top control and a finishing opportunity.
- Best Bet: Anthony Hernandez Moneyline
- Finish Pick: Fight Does Not Go the Distance
- Method Play: Anthony Hernandez by KO/TKO
- Underdog Route: Gregory Rodrigues to Win in Rounds 1 or 2
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