Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts 11/08/2026
Sunday’s Week 9 matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium brings two teams looking to stop a slide, with Indianapolis at 2-6 and Dallas at 3-4. The Colts are coming off a 42-7 loss to Jacksonville, while the Cowboys dropped a 33-30 game to Arizona. Dallas has the better record and won four of the teams’ last five meetings, but the recent form points to a competitive game rather than a straightforward road win. The supplied betting tips favor an Indianapolis cover at +6.0 and a game total over 51.5. With both defenses facing questions and the Cowboys capable of producing through the air, the total is an appealing place to start.
Take the long view before this week’s kickoff. Compare NFL futures odds for the Super Bowl and conference races.
Our 3 betting predictions for Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts
1. Over 51.5 points — -109
The suggested total is 51.5, and the case for the over starts with Dallas’ recent scoring potential: the Cowboys put up 30 points against Arizona and 38 in their win over Philadelphia. Indianapolis, meanwhile, will want a response after managing just seven points in its latest game. The Colts’ offense has had an uneven season, so this is not a bet that they’ll suddenly look unstoppable. It’s a wager that the Cowboys can do their share and that the combined score can get past the number. Betting tip: Over 51.5 points at -109.
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2. Indianapolis Colts +6.0 — -111
A six-point cushion gives the home team room to keep this close even if Dallas wins. Indianapolis is 1-2 at home, while Dallas is 2-2 on the road. The Cowboys have the stronger overall record, but they also just lost a one-score game to Arizona. After a blowout loss, the Colts need a more composed performance, and playing indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium gives them a familiar setting. This pick is about the spread, not a claim that Indianapolis is the more dependable team right now. Betting tip: Colts +6.0 at -111.
3. Dallas Cowboys moneyline — -238
Dallas gets the nod to win outright, though the price reflects its status as the favorite. The Cowboys have three wins to Indianapolis’ two and a stronger recent head-to-head record, taking four of the last five meetings. The most recent result in that series was a commanding Dallas win. Those are meaningful points in the visitors’ favor, but the Cowboys’ loss to Arizona and the Colts’ home-field advantage make this a less attractive option than taking the points. Betting tip: Cowboys moneyline at -238.
Team Statistics
Indianapolis Colts: searching for a reset at home
Indianapolis enters Week 9 with a 2-6 record and a .250 win rate. The Colts are 1-2 at home and 2-4 on the road in the standings data. Their latest outing was a 42-7 loss to the Jaguars, and they have lost four of their last five games. It is a rough stretch, but this matchup offers a chance to respond in front of their home crowd.
The provided season totals show Indianapolis with 161 points scored and 222 allowed through eight games. That works out to an average of 20.1 points scored and 27.8 points allowed per game. Those averages underline the challenge: the offense needs to find more consistent production, while the defense has to limit Dallas’ ability to put points on the board.
The additional statistics supplied for this preview identify Jonathan Taylor as a central part of the Colts’ rushing attack, with 587 rushing yards on 140 carries, or 4.2 yards per carry, and eight rushing touchdowns. In the passing game, Daniel Jones is listed with 1,398 passing yards, four touchdowns and seven interceptions. The numbers suggest Indianapolis will need a more efficient passing performance and a strong contribution from Taylor to keep Dallas’ offense off the field.
Dallas Cowboys: more firepower, but coming off a close loss
Dallas is 3-4, with a .375 win rate. The Cowboys are 1-2 at home and 2-2 on the road. They have won two of their last five games, but last week’s 33-30 loss to Arizona was a narrow one and came after a 38-21 road win over Philadelphia.
Across eight games, Dallas has scored 219 points and allowed 210. That averages 27.4 points scored and 26.3 points allowed per game. The Cowboys’ scoring average is a clear advantage over Indianapolis’ season rate, while their points allowed show a defense that has not been airtight.
The supplied player figures highlight Dak Prescott’s passing production: 1,851 yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. Javonte Williams has 472 rushing yards on 110 carries, an average of 4.3 yards per carry, and eight touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb is listed with 651 receiving yards and six touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, the supplied preview data flags Dallas’ run defense as a potential vulnerability, which could give Taylor and the Colts an avenue to make this uncomfortable for the visitors.
Key player statistics, momentum and external factors
Shane Steichen’s Colts need a sharper response after the 42-7 loss to Jacksonville. Taylor’s 4.2 yards per carry gives Indianapolis a plausible way to challenge Dallas’ run defense, but Jones’ four touchdown passes against seven interceptions put added pressure on the offense to avoid costly mistakes. For Dallas, Prescott’s 13-to-5 touchdown-to-interception line and Lamb’s receiving production offer the clearest matchup advantage. Brian Schottenheimer’s team also arrives with a recent 38-21 win over Philadelphia in its last five-game sample, even though the Arizona loss interrupted that momentum. The game is at Lucas Oil Stadium, an indoor venue, so weather should not be a major factor. The matchup is not a divisional game, but both teams have plenty of reason to treat Week 9 as an opportunity to steady their season.
Last direct match: Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas won the most recent meeting, 54-19, at home. Across the last five meetings in all competitions, the Cowboys have won four and Indianapolis has won one.
Performance last 5 matches
Indianapolis is 1-4 across its last five games, including the 42-7 loss to Jacksonville. Dallas is 2-3 over the same span and most recently lost 33-30 to Arizona.
TrustnBet tips summed up
The three picks balance Dallas’ stronger record and head-to-head edge against the Colts’ home-field advantage and the Cowboys’ recent close loss. The preferred angle is Over 51.5 points at -109, with Colts +6.0 at -111 offering a spread cushion at home. Dallas remains the moneyline choice at -238, but its price is steeper, so the spread and total are the more compelling betting options.
