Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots 11/08/2026
Green Bay heads to Gillette Stadium on Sunday, November 8, for a Week 9 matchup between two teams coming off wins. The Patriots edged Miami 24-19, while the Packers beat Carolina 27-19. Both sides have gone 4-1 over their last five, so recent form points to a competitive game rather than an obvious mismatch.
New England is listed at -133 on the moneyline, with Green Bay at +140. The supplied betting picks also lean toward the Patriots covering a short spread and the game getting past 46.5 points. Our read: home-field advantage and New England’s unbeaten home record give the Patriots a slight edge, while the teams’ recent scoring makes the over worth considering.
See where Green Bay sits on the betting board. Compare Packers odds before we break down the matchup and our picks.
Our 3 betting predictions for Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots
1. Over 46.5 total points: Over -111
The over is our preferred play. New England’s eight-game scoring average is 23 points per game, while Green Bay is averaging 21.4. Combined, that is 44.4 points per game—but both teams have shown they can lift the number. The Patriots scored 45 against Las Vegas, and the Packers have put up 27 or more in two of their recent games. Their latest results were 24-19 and 27-19, respectively, for 89 combined points across those two games. That small sample doesn’t guarantee a shootout, but it supports a game where both offenses can contribute. Betting tip: Over 46.5 points at -111.
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2. Patriots moneyline: New England to win (-133)
This is a narrow home-team lean, not a claim that New England is comfortably better. The Patriots are 3-0 at Gillette Stadium and have won four of their last five. Green Bay has also won four of its last five, but its 2-2 road record is less compelling than New England’s home mark. The listed price implies a modest favorite, which feels appropriate for a matchup between teams with matching 5-3 records in the supplied standings.
For a simple moneyline estimate, we put New England’s win chance around 55% and Green Bay’s around 45%. That translates roughly to fair American odds of New England -122 and Green Bay +122, before accounting for the sportsbook’s margin. The offered Patriots price is -133, so this is a lean rather than a standout value bet. Betting tip: Patriots moneyline at -133.
3. Patriots -2.5: New England to cover
The spread pick asks the Patriots to win by at least three points. Their unbeaten home record is the main reason to back them, along with the recent 24-19 win over Miami and a four-win run across their last five games. Green Bay is capable of keeping this close: it has won four of its last five as well and arrives after a solid 27-19 result. That makes the spread less comfortable than the moneyline, but New England’s home edge is enough to make -2.5 the side we’d take. Betting tip: Patriots -2.5 at -111.
Team statistics: Patriots bring a strong home profile
New England enters Week 9 with a 5-3 record, including a perfect 3-0 at home. The team is listed at 0.625 in win percentage, and has scored 184 points through eight games—an average of 23 per game—while allowing 162, or 20.25 per game. The Patriots’ point differential is +22.
They’ve gone 4-1 over their last five, with wins over Buffalo, Las Vegas, the New York Jets and Miami. Their most recent result was a 24-19 road win over the Dolphins. That stretch includes a 45-point performance against the Raiders, but also a 24-30 loss to Chicago, a reminder that the offense has not been immune to a tough matchup.
Team statistics: Packers arrive with momentum, but a tougher road test
Green Bay is also 5-3, with a 0.625 win percentage. The Packers have scored 171 points in eight games, an average of 21.4 per game, and conceded 164, or 20.5 per game. Their point differential is +7. They are 3-1 at home and 2-2 on the road.
The Packers have also won four of their last five. After a 20-17 loss to Detroit, they bounced back with a 27-19 home win over Carolina. Before that, Green Bay beat Dallas 23-13, Chicago 31-7 and Tampa Bay 17-14. That is a useful run of results, although the road split suggests this trip to Foxborough could be a meaningful test.
Key player momentum and external factors
Packers quarterback Jordan Love had a strong outing in the Carolina win, completing 30 of 41 passes for 288 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, according to the supplied notes. That performance gives Green Bay a clear passing-game spark heading into this matchup. On the New England side, coach Mike Vrabel has his team unbeaten at home and coming off a divisional win over Miami. Injury information supplied ahead of the game is provisional: it mentions Patriots receiver A.J. Brown and tight end Hunter Henry, as well as several Packers players, but those statuses may change before kickoff. Check official team updates for confirmation. No player yardage, touchdown or defensive totals beyond the supplied Love line are available here, so none are extrapolated.
Last direct match: Patriots hold a recent edge
The supplied head-to-head summary says New England won the most recent meeting, 21-17, and leads Green Bay 2-1 across the last three listed meetings. The longer five-game summary provided says the Patriots have two wins and the Packers three. These matchups offer some history, but the recent rosters and current form matter more for Sunday’s pick.
Performance last five matches
Both teams are 4-1 over their last five games. New England’s most recent result was a 24-19 win over Miami; Green Bay’s was a 27-19 win over Carolina. The records point to two sides in good form, with the Patriots’ 3-0 home record providing the clearest split between them.
TrustnBet tips summed up
Our three picks are Over 46.5 points (-111), Patriots moneyline (-133) and Patriots -2.5 (-111). The over is supported by the teams’ combined scoring averages and recent results, while the two New England bets reflect its unbeaten home record and recent momentum. Green Bay has plenty of reasons to make this competitive, so keep the spread play measured and confirm late injury news before kickoff.
