US Open: Bublik vs Paul Odds, Picks & Where to Watch Live
Tommy Paul gets his chance to settle an old New York score on Friday, September 4, 2026. One year after Alexander Bublik eliminated him in a five-set US Open thriller, the American returns as the betting favorite—but perhaps not the fresher player.
Bublik has needed only three hours and 32 minutes to reach the third round, crushing Adrian Mannarino in 82 minutes Wednesday. Paul has already spent five hours and 45 minutes on court and dropped a set in both matches. The favorite owns the stronger overall résumé and a 5-2 head-to-head lead, but Bublik’s serve and quick-strike offense make this a dangerous rematch.
Building a Friday card? Consult our tennis betting guide before comparing the match spread and total-games markets.
Bublik vs Paul Betting Odds
| Market | Reference Odds | Place Bet! |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik ML | +150 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Tommy Paul ML | -170 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 41.5 Games | +120 | -149 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
Expert Picks: Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul
🥇 Best Bet: Over 38.5 Total Games
Everything points toward a match with mileage. Paul has dropped a set in both rounds, while Bublik’s serve is strong enough to create tiebreak opportunities. Their 2025 US Open meeting lasted five sets and produced 55 games. Four competitive sets could be enough to clear this number without requiring another decider.
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Pick 2: Alexander Bublik +4.5 Games
Bublik has played 20 fewer games and spent more than two hours less on court than Paul. That energy advantage matters in a best-of-five matchup. Paul can still win through superior defense and consistency, but Bublik’s ability to protect serve should keep the overall game differential within a generous cushion.
Pick 3: Tommy Paul to Win
The favorite’s path will not be comfortable, but Paul remains the more dependable choice over five sets. He leads the rivalry 5-2 and can extend rallies until Bublik’s risk-taking produces openings. Paul’s movement, return depth, and superior defensive range should become increasingly influential if the contest reaches a fourth or fifth set.
Pick 4: Both Players to Win a Set
Paul lost the opening set against Coleman Wong and surrendered the third against Dino Prizmic. Bublik dropped one set to J.J. Wolf before dismantling Mannarino. Neither player has been completely untouchable, and their contrasting strengths make a straight-sets result less likely than the favorite’s moneyline suggests.
Bublik vs Paul Matchup Comparison
| Category | Alexander Bublik | Tommy Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP ranking | No. 16 | No. 21 |
| Age | 29 | 29 |
| Height | 6’5” | 6’1” |
| 2026 record | 28-17 | 38-16 |
| 2026 hard-court record | 11-4 | 19-9 |
| 2026 titles | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head | Trails 2-5 | Leads 5-2 |
| 2026 US Open sets lost | 1 | 2 |
Key Betting Trends
- Paul leads the career series 5-2.
- Bublik won their latest meeting at the 2025 US Open.
- Their previous New York matchup lasted five sets and 55 games.
- Bublik has spent only three hours and 32 minutes on court this week.
- Paul has needed five hours and 45 minutes to complete two matches.
- Paul has dropped one set in each US Open round.
- Bublik allowed Mannarino only five games in Round 2.
- Bublik has won six of his previous seven matches.
- Paul owns a 38-16 record during the 2026 season.
- Bublik is 11-4 in outdoor hard-court matches this year.
Where to Watch Bublik vs Paul in the US
- Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
- Round: Third Round/Round of 32
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York
- Television: ESPN platforms
- Streaming: ESPN App and ESPN Unlimited
Final Prediction: Can Paul Survive Another Bublik Battle?
Bublik is the more dangerous player during the opening exchanges. He arrives rested, has served confidently, and knows he can defeat Paul on this court.
Paul becomes more attractive as the match stretches. The American can make Bublik hit from uncomfortable positions, retrieve shots that would finish points against most opponents, and steadily test the underdog’s patience. His broader body of work suggests he is better equipped to manage the difficult moments across four or five sets.
Expect Bublik to take at least one set and remain close on the scoreboard. Paul’s consistency should eventually carry him through, but this does not project as the comfortable victory implied by a short favorite price.
- Prediction: Tommy Paul wins 6-7, 7-5, 6-4, 6-4
- Best Bet: Over 38.5 Games
- Spread Pick: Alexander Bublik +4.5 Games
- Set Pick: Both Players to Win a Set
- Match Pick: Tommy Paul Moneyline
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