US Open: Fritz vs Cerundolo Odds, Picks & How to Watch
Taylor Fritz has spent the opening week making New York look easy. Francisco Cerundolo has taken the opposite route—and now the difference in mileage could become decisive.
The two meet in the US Open third round on Saturday, September 5, 2026, with Fritz carrying six consecutive sets, 36 games won and only 11 conceded into the matchup. Cerundolo arrives after battling through a draining five-set comeback against Jan-Lennard Struff.
Cerundolo’s forehand gives him a legitimate weapon, but Fritz owns the stronger serve, fresher legs and better hard-court profile. If the American establishes control early, another efficient victory should follow.
Ready for the next New York slate? Use our expert tennis betting guide to compare markets before building your US Open card.
Fritz vs Cerundolo Betting Odds
| Betting Market | Reference Odds | Place Bet Now! |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Fritz ML | -435 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Francisco Cerundolo ML | +365 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 37.5 Games | -110 | -110 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
Expert Picks: Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo
🥇 Best Bet: Taylor Fritz -5.5 Games
Fritz has won 36 games while surrendering only 11 through two rounds. Cerundolo played five physical sets against Struff, committed 13 double faults, and faced 17 break points. Fritz’s cleaner serving and immediate return pressure should create enough separation to cover six games, even if one set stays competitive.
Pick 2: Taylor Fritz to Win 3-0
The straight-sets market offers a more attractive return than Fritz’s heavily juiced moneyline. Cerundolo can trouble him with the forehand, but sustaining that pressure across three sets will be difficult after a punishing second round. Fritz has not dropped a set and has faced little scoreboard pressure in New York.
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Pick 3: Under 37.5 Total Games
This total allows one extended set without requiring three blowouts. A score such as 6-3, 7-5, 6-3 finishes comfortably below the number. Fritz’s first two matches produced only 27 and 20 games, while his ability to hold quickly reduces the chance of multiple long, grinding sets.
Pick 4: Francisco Cerundolo Under 13.5 Games
Cerundolo likely needs to win a set or force multiple tiebreaks to reach 14 games. Fritz won 86% of his first-serve points against Bellucci and saved every break point he faced. If the American maintains that serving level, the underdog will struggle to accumulate enough games across three sets.
Fritz vs Cerundolo Matchup Comparison
| Category | Taylor Fritz | Francisco Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Ranking | No. 10 | No. 25 |
| Age | 28 | 28 |
| Height | 6’5” | 6’1” |
| 2026 Record | 31-15 | 28-16 |
| 2026 Singles Titles | 1 | 2 |
| Career Singles Titles | 11 | 5 |
| Best US Open Result | Finalist | Third Round |
| Head-to-Head | 1 win | 1 win |
Key Betting Trends
- Fritz owns a 31-15 singles record in 2026.
- Cerundolo is 28-16 with two titles this season.
- Fritz has won all six sets played at this US Open.
- The American has dropped only 11 games through two rounds.
- Fritz defeated Bellucci in only 98 minutes.
- He won 86% of his first-serve points in the second round.
- Fritz saved all three break points he faced against Bellucci.
- Cerundolo needed five sets to eliminate Struff.
- Cerundolo served 19 aces but committed 13 double faults.
- The Argentine landed only 53% of his first serves against Struff.
- Cerundolo converted seven of 17 break-point opportunities.
- The head-to-head is tied 1-1.
- Both previous meetings were played on clay.
- This is Cerundolo’s first appearance in the US Open third round.
- Fritz reached the US Open final in 2024.
Where to Watch Fritz vs Cerundolo in the US
- Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
- Round: Third Round/Round of 32
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York
- Surface: Outdoor hard court
- U.S. coverage: National television and streaming coverage
Final Prediction: Will Fritz Keep Rolling?
Cerundolo is significantly more accomplished than Fritz’s first two opponents. He owns two titles this season, has previously beaten Fritz at a major, and possesses enough forehand power to make individual sets uncomfortable.
The matchup still favors the American heavily. Fritz arrives fresher, is serving at an exceptional level, and has already settled into the Arthur Ashe environment. Cerundolo must recover from a five-set struggle while immediately improving the 53% first-serve rate he produced against Struff. Expect the Argentine to push one set deep. Fritz’s serve, return positioning, and physical advantage should decide the pressure points before the contest develops into another marathon.
- Prediction: Taylor Fritz wins 6-3, 7-5, 6-3
- Best Bet: Taylor Fritz -5.5 Games
- Set Pick: Taylor Fritz to Win 3-0
- Totals Pick: Under 37.5 Games
- Player Total: Francisco Cerundolo Under 13.5 Games
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