US Open: Faria vs Alcaraz Odds, Picks & Where to Watch Live
The wrist held up. The title defense moves forward. Carlos Alcaraz returned from a 139-day singles absence by defeating Roman Safiullin 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. He reported no pain afterward, but his reduced serving speed showed that the defending champion is still managing his workload.
Wednesday’s US Open second-round opponent brings a different challenge. Jaime Faria survived a five-set roller coaster against Jenson Brooksby, winning the first two sets, losing the next two and recovering in the decider. Alcaraz should advance. Whether he covers a massive game spread is the real betting question.
Building your Flushing Meadows card? Use our expert tennis betting guide to compare US Open spreads, totals and set markets.
Faria vs Alcaraz Betting Odds
| Market | Reference Odds | Place Bet! |
|---|---|---|
| Jaime Faria ML | +625 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Carlos Alcaraz ML | -835 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 34.5 Games | -110 | -111 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
Expert Picks: Jaime Faria vs Carlos Alcaraz
🥇 Best Bet: Jaime Faria +8.5 Games
Alcaraz returned impressively, but Safiullin still collected four games in every set while the Spaniard protected a recently injured wrist. Faria’s first serve and willingness to attack should produce similar resistance. The Portuguese can lose in straight sets and still cover this generous number, making the handicap safer than opposing the defending champion outright Wednesday.
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Pick 2: Carlos Alcaraz to Win 3-0
Faria required five sets and 47 games to escape Brooksby, surrendering the third and fourth sets before recovering. Alcaraz needed only three controlled sets against Safiullin and reported no wrist pain afterward. Even below peak serving speed, his return, movement and forehand variety should prevent Faria from sustaining enough pressure to claim a set Wednesday.
Pick 3: First Set Over 8.5 Games
Alcaraz’s opening match produced three identical 6-4 sets, showing he was content to build rhythm rather than chase immediate blowouts. Faria won both opening sets against Brooksby and should start with confidence before fatigue becomes a factor. Four early holds from the underdog would cash this alternate total even if Alcaraz controls every important point thereafter.
Pick 4: Under 33.5 Total Games
A straight-set Alcaraz victory creates plenty of Under routes. Scores such as 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 or 7-5, 6-3, 6-2 finish below 33 games while allowing Faria respectable resistance. The main danger is one tiebreak combined with another extended set, but Alcaraz’s return quality should keep the match from reaching that territory for long on Wednesday.
One Comfortable Opener, One Five-Set Escape
| First-Round Marker | Jaime Faria | Carlos Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Jenson Brooksby | Roman Safiullin |
| Result | Won in five sets | Won in three sets |
| Score | 6-3, 7-6(4), 4-6, 1-6, 6-2 | 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Total games played | 47 | 30 |
| Aces | 14 | 2 |
| Double faults | 14 | 5 |
| First-serve percentage | 63% | 68% |
| Break points saved | 9-of-16 | 5-of-6 |
| Breaks converted | 6 | 4 |
Faria vs Alcaraz Head-to-Head
This will be the first tour-level meeting between Faria and Alcaraz.
| Category | Jaime Faria | Carlos Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| ATP ranking | No. 72 | No. 3 |
| Age | 23 | 23 |
| Height | 6’2” | 6’0” |
| Nationality | Portugal | Spain |
| Plays | Right-handed | Right-handed |
| US Open status | Second-round debut | Defending champion |
| Best US Open result | Second round | Two-time champion |
Key Betting Trends
- Alcaraz is a two-time US Open champion and the defending champion.
- This is the first meeting between Alcaraz and Faria.
- Alcaraz won his opening match without dropping a set.
- All three sets against Safiullin finished 6-4.
- Alcaraz was playing his first singles match in 139 days.
- Alcaraz reported no wrist pain after the victory.
- Faria needed five sets and 47 games to beat Brooksby.
- Faria hit 14 aces and 14 double faults in the first round.
- Faria faced 16 break points against Brooksby.
- Faria has never defeated a top-three opponent.
- Alcaraz saved five of six break points against Safiullin.
- Faria has reached the US Open second round for the first time.
Where to Watch Faria vs Alcaraz in the US
- Date: Wednesday, September 2, 2026
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, New York
- TV: ESPN coverage begins at 11:30 a.m. ET
- Spanish-language TV: ESPN Deportes from 11:00 a.m. ET
- Streaming: ESPN App with an ESPN Unlimited subscription
- Additional coverage: RedZone at the US Open, 11:00 a.m.–6:00 p.m. ET
Final Prediction
Alcaraz’s return was exactly what he needed: three controlled sets, no visible wrist pain and no extended physical battle. Faria should offer resistance early. His first serve can generate free points, and Alcaraz may continue prioritizing controlled tennis over maximum aggression. That gives the Portuguese a realistic path toward four games in at least two sets.
The difference will appear whenever Faria misses his first serve. Alcaraz should attack the second delivery, move Faria into uncomfortable positions and prevent the underdog from taking full control of rallies. Straight sets remain the most likely result, but the favorite does not need a blowout to advance convincingly.
- Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz wins 6-4, 6-3, 6-3
- Best Bet: Jaime Faria +8.5 Games
- Set Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to Win 3-0
- Opening-Set Pick: First Set Over 8.5 Games
- Totals Pick: Under 33.5 Games
- Longshot Play: Alcaraz 3-0 and Faria +8.5 Games
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