US Open: Nakashima vs Michelsen Odds, Picks & Where to Watch Live
A California duel takes over New York. Brandon Nakashima and Alex Michelsen meet for the first time Wednesday in the US Open second round, with both Americans arriving after ruthless straight-set openers. Nakashima dropped only three games against Sebastián Báez. Michelsen surrendered five to Federico Cina.
The No. 16 seed owns the stronger summer résumé, reaching the Montreal final and Cincinnati semifinals. Michelsen brings the bigger frame, greater improvisation and enough serving power to make this uncomfortable. The moneyline favors Nakashima. The set handicap offers the sharper betting route.
Ready to attack the US Open card? Explore our expert tennis betting guide before backing Wednesday’s action.
Nakashima vs Michelsen Betting Odds
| Market | Reference Odds | Place Bet! |
|---|---|---|
| Nakashima ML | -152 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Alex Michelsen ML | +135 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 37.5 Games | -120 | -120 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
Expert Picks: Brandon Nakashima vs Alex Michelsen
🥇 Best Bet: Nakashima -1.5 Sets
Nakashima owns the stronger summer résumé, reaching the Montreal final and Cincinnati semifinals before dismantling Báez without facing a converted break point. Michelsen has enough serve and creativity to take one set. Still, Nakashima’s cleaner backhand, superior return discipline and steadier decision-making should create separation across four sets and cover the set handicap on Wednesday.
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Pick 2: Over 37.5 Total Games
Both men dominated weaker opening-round opponents, so those lopsided scores reveal little about how evenly their service games match up here. Michelsen’s height and first-strike power can extend sets, while Nakashima rarely gives games away cheaply. Four sets containing one tiebreak would place this total in strong position without requiring a five-set marathon Wednesday afternoon.
Pick 3: Brandon Nakashima to Win 3-1
Michelsen has never advanced beyond the US Open second round, yet his aggressive game is strong enough to prevent a sweep. Nakashima remains the more dependable player over five-set distance and has beaten several elite hard-court opponents this summer. The favorite dropping one tight set before controlling the fourth offers a logical plus-money route Wednesday.
Pick 3: First Set Over 9.5 Games
This is their first tour-level meeting, removing any established return pattern either player can immediately exploit. Nakashima struck 13 aces against Báez; Michelsen won 81% of first-serve points against Cina. With both Americans arriving confident and fresh, an early exchange of routine holds looks more likely than a quick double-break opening set in New York.
First-Round Statement Wins
Neither player spent long on court, but Nakashima delivered the more complete serving performance.
The No. 16 seed blasted 13 aces, committed zero double faults and won 86% of his first-serve points against Báez. He saved all three break points faced and converted seven of his 11 opportunities.
Michelsen also protected every service game against Cina. The 22-year-old saved six break points and won 81% of his first-serve points, although eight double faults offer Nakashima a clear opening.
| First-Round Marker | Brandon Nakashima | Alex Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Sebastián Báez | Federico Cina |
| Result | Won 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 | Won 6-4, 6-1, 6-0 |
| Sets lost | 0 | 0 |
| Games conceded | 3 | 5 |
| Aces | 13 | 6 |
| Double faults | 0 | 8 |
| First-serve points won | 86% | 81% |
| Break points saved | 3-of-3 | 6-of-6 |
| Breaks converted | 7 | 6 |
Michelsen’s double-fault count is the biggest concern. Nakashima is a substantially stronger returner than Cina and will punish second serves left in the middle of the box.
Nakashima vs Michelsen Head-to-Head
| Category | Brandon Nakashima | Alex Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| ATP ranking | No. 17 | No. 46 |
| Age | 25 | 22 |
| Height | 6’2” | 6’4” |
| 2026 record | 32-17 | 32-19 |
| 2026 hard-court record | 22-9 | 22-9 |
| Best US Open result | Fourth round | Second round |
Key Betting Trends
- This is the first tour-level meeting between Nakashima and Michelsen.
- Both players own 22-9 hard-court records in 2026.
- Nakashima reached the Montreal final and Cincinnati semifinals.
- Nakashima has won eight of his last 10 matches.
- Both players won their opening US Open match in straight sets.
- Nakashima conceded only three games against Báez.
- Michelsen conceded five games against Cina.
- Neither American dropped serve in the first round.
- Nakashima hit 13 aces without committing a double fault.
- Michelsen committed eight double faults despite winning comfortably.
- Michelsen has not advanced beyond the US Open second round.
- Nakashima reached the fourth round in New York in 2024.
Where to Watch Nakashima vs Michelsen in the US
- Date: Wednesday, September 2, 2026
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, New York
- TV: ESPN coverage begins at 11:30 a.m. ET
- Spanish-language TV: ESPN Deportes from 11:00 a.m. ET
- Streaming: ESPN App with an ESPN Unlimited subscription
- Additional coverage: RedZone at the US Open from 11:00 a.m.–6:00 p.m. ET
Final Prediction
The opening round could hardly have gone better for either player. Both dominated, protected serve, and reached the second round without unnecessary mileage. Now the level rises. Michelsen’s serve, reach and variety should create one successful stretch, particularly before Nakashima completely reads his delivery. The younger American has enough offense to win a tiebreak or capitalize on one loose return game.
Nakashima offers fewer weaknesses. His return is sharper, his backhand is more stable, and his recent results against top opponents show that he can maintain his level when a match tightens. Once Michelsen’s first-serve percentage drops, Nakashima should take control.
- Prediction: Brandon Nakashima wins 7-6(5), 6-4, 4-6, 6-3
- Best Bet: Brandon Nakashima -1.5 Sets
- Totals Pick: Over 37.5 Games
- Opening-Set Pick: First Set Over 9.5 Games
- Set Pick: Brandon Nakashima to Win 3-1
- Longshot Play: Nakashima 3-1 and First Set Over 9.5 Games
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