US Open: Fritz vs Bellucci Odds, Picks & Where to Stream Live
Taylor Fritz already knows Mattia Bellucci will not behave like a routine second-round underdog. The Italian took the first set when they met in Stuttgart this summer and forced the American through two 7-5 sets before he escaped.
Now the rematch shifts to New York on Wednesday, September 3, 2026, where Fritz carries home expectations and a massive moneyline price. Both players opened with straight-set wins and 14 aces, giving this matchup more resistance than the rankings suggest. Fritz should advance, but the strongest betting value may sit away from his moneyline.
Ready for the season’s final major? Use our expert tennis betting guide to compare markets before building your US Open card.
Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci Betting Odds
| Market | Reference Odds | Place Bet Now! |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Fritz ML | -900 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Mattia Bellucci ML | +740 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 33.5 Games | -105 | -115 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
Expert Picks: Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci
🥇 Best Bet: Mattia Bellucci +7.5 Games
Bellucci’s ranking understates the danger of this matchup. He took the opening set from Fritz in Stuttgart and lost that three-set battle by only two games. After holding all 12 service games against Piros, the Italian has enough left-handed variety and serving confidence to stay comfortably inside a generous best-of-five handicap, even if Fritz advances.
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Pick 2: Over 31.5 Total Games
Both men arrived with their serves fully engaged, combining for 28 aces in straight-set opening wins. Bellucci has already shown he can extend Fritz, while the American rarely gives away cheap return games. An alternate total only needs three competitive sets or a fourth set, both quite realistic outcomes if Bellucci protects serve early again.
Pick 3: Taylor Fritz to Win 3-1
The upset price is tempting, but Fritz owns the deeper best-of-five résumé, stronger baseline tolerance and a major edge in repeatable first-serve power. Bellucci can steal a set by disrupting rhythm with his left-handed patterns; sustaining that pressure for three sets is tougher. Fritz should eventually separate once the Italian’s first-serve percentage begins to fall.
Pick 4: First Set Over 9.5 Games
Their Stuttgart meeting opened with Bellucci winning 7-5, and neither player surrendered serve easily in New York’s first round. Fritz will attack the Italian’s second serve, but Bellucci’s left-handed delivery can delay that adjustment. With both men striking 14 aces Tuesday, the opening set has a credible path to ten games before either gains control.
Is the Market Undervaluing Bellucci?
- Fritz’s best available price around -900 implies approximately a 90% chance of victory. That makes the American difficult to back as a standalone moneyline selection: bettors would need to risk $900 to win $100.
- Bellucci remains a dangerous matchup despite the ranking gap. Their only previous meeting came in Stuttgart in June, where the Italian won the first set before Fritz rallied for a narrow 5-7, 7-5, 7-5 victory. Fritz won just two more games across the entire contest.
- The surface has changed from grass to hard court, and the format has expanded from best-of-three to best-of-five. Both changes favor Fritz’s superior endurance and major experience, but the previous result makes a large Bellucci handicap more attractive than either moneyline.
Fritz vs Bellucci Matchup Comparison
| Category | Taylor Fritz | Mattia Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| ATP ranking | No. 10 | No. 95 |
| Tournament seed | No. 9 | Unseeded |
| Age | 28 | 25 |
| Height | 6’5” | 5’9” |
| Career-high ranking | No. 4 | No. 63 |
| ATP singles titles | 13 | 0 |
| Head-to-head | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| First-round result | Won 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 | Won 6-4, 6-2, 6-0 |
Key Betting Trends
- Fritz defeated Darwin Blanch in straight sets in the opening round.
- The American fired 14 aces and faced only two break points.
- Bellucci also struck 14 aces against Zsombor Piros.
- The Italian held all 12 service games and saved four break points.
- Bellucci dropped only six games during his first-round victory.
- Fritz leads the head-to-head series 1-0.
- Bellucci won the opening set in their previous encounter.
- Only two games separated them across that three-set match.
- Fritz reached the US Open final in 2024.
- Both players have won four of their previous five matches.
Where to Watch Fritz vs Bellucci in the US
- Date: Thursday, September 3, 2026
- Round: Second Round/Round of 64
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York
- TV: ESPN day-session coverage begins at 11:30 a.m. ET
- Streaming: ESPN App and ESPN Unlimited
- Spanish coverage: ESPN Deportes from 11:00 a.m. ET
Final Prediction: Will Fritz Control the Rematch?
The moneyline presents Fritz as an overwhelming favorite, but their first meeting and Bellucci’s opening-round level suggest something more competitive than a routine blowout.
Bellucci can disrupt the American with his left-handed serve, attack early and push at least one set deep. The concern is whether he can maintain that accuracy for three or four hours while Fritz continues producing first-strike tennis from the baseline. Expect Bellucci to cover the game handicap and claim one set before Fritz’s serve, physical margin and best-of-five experience take over.
- Prediction: Taylor Fritz wins 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
- Best Bet: Mattia Bellucci +7.5 Games
- Totals Play: Over 31.5 Games
- Set Pick: Taylor Fritz to Win 3-1
- First-Set Pick: Over 9.5 Games
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