US Open: Monfils vs Tien Odds, Picks & How to Watch
Some second-round matches are about advancement. This one feels like a changing of the guard. On Thursday, September 3, 2026, 40-year-old Gael Monfils continues his final US Open campaign against Learner Tien, the 20-year-old American already ranked No. 15 in the world.
They also arrive with unfinished business. Tien defeated Monfils in Montreal four weeks ago, but only after the Frenchman tore through a 6-0 second set. New York now adds a best-of-five format, an emotional crowd and significantly more physical pressure.
Before betting the rematch, use our expert tennis betting guide to compare spreads, totals and set markets across leading sportsbooks.
Monfils vs Tien Betting Odds
| Market | Reference Odds | Place Bet Now! |
|---|---|---|
| Gael Monfils ML | +360 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Learner Tien ML | -475 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 36.5 Games | +110 | -132 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
The Moneyline Is Expensive—Look Beyond It
Tien is the rightful favorite, but backing him directly offers limited value.
At -475, bettors must risk $475 to make $100 in profit. That price carries an implied probability of approximately 82.6% before accounting for the sportsbook margin.
Monfils at +360 looks tempting for anyone buying into the farewell story, but defeating Tien across three sets is a much bigger challenge than simply making the match competitive. That moves the strongest betting angles away from the moneyline and toward the handicap, total-games and set markets.
Expert Picks: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien
🥇 Best Bet: Gael Monfils +6.5 Games
Monfils does not need the upset to reward spread bettors. He recovered from a dreadful opening set against Vallejo and won the next three while conceding only three games. Tien won their Montreal meeting by three games, not a runaway margin. With Monfils’ surge likely, take the veteran at +6.5 games or better on Thursday.
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Pick 2: Over 34.5 Total Games
Both men showed sharp return games in Round 1, yet this total remains reachable if Monfils takes a set. Their Montreal match produced 24 games in three sets despite a 6-0 middle frame. A four-set contest featuring one close opener or tiebreak should clear 34.5, making the over attractive at that number or anything lower.
Pick 3: Learner Tien to Win 3-1
Tien has the repeatable game to win, but straight sets demand Monfils remain quiet for three complete frames. That is a dangerous assumption in his final US Open campaign. The veteran bagelled Tien in Montreal and overwhelmed Vallejo after settling in Tuesday. Expect Tien to absorb one burst before controlling the final two sets decisively.
Pick 4: Gael Monfils to Win a Set
Monfils’ ranking reflects an interrupted, difficult season—not the ceiling he still reaches under major-stage lights. He won a set 6-0 in the first meeting and captured 18 of his final 21 games Tuesday. Tien remains the rightful favorite, but Monfils to win a set isolates the veteran’s most realistic route to value in New York.
Monfils vs Tien Matchup Comparison
| Category | Gael Monfils | Learner Tien |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Ranking | No. 311 | No. 15 |
| Age | 40 | 20 |
| Height | 6’4” | 5’11” |
| 2026 Record | 5-9 | 27-15 |
| Career ATP Titles | 13 | 2 |
| Grand Slam Best | Semifinals | Quarterfinals |
| Best US Open Finish | Semifinals, 2016 | Second Round |
| Head-to-Head | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| First-Round Result | Won in four sets | Won in straight sets |
Key Betting Trends
- Tien leads the head-to-head series 1-0.
- Their Montreal match produced 24 games across three sets.
- Monfils won the second set of that encounter 6-0.
- Tien has won three of his previous five matches.
- Four of Tien’s last five matches were settled in straight sets.
- Tien reached the Montreal semifinals during the North American hard-court swing.
- Monfils has won two of his previous five completed matches.
- The Frenchman won 18 of his final 21 games against Vallejo.
- Tien did not commit a double fault against Borges in the opening round.
- Monfils is playing his 18th and final US Open campaign.
- Tien is attempting to reach the US Open third round for the first time.
Where to Watch Monfils vs Tien in the US
- Day and date: Thursday, September 3, 2026
- Round: Second Round/Round of 64
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York
- TV coverage: ESPN coverage begins at 11:30 a.m. ET
- Streaming: ESPN App and ESPN Unlimited
- Spanish-language coverage: ESPN Deportes from 11:00 a.m. ET
- US Open RedZone: ESPN App from 11:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. ET
Final Prediction: One More Monfils Show, Then Tien Advances
Monfils’ first-round comeback ensured his final US Open would contain at least one memorable night. Thursday presents a much harder assignment. Tien already knows what the veteran’s highest gear feels like. He experienced it during that 6-0 set in Montreal, recovered and still won the match. That response is arguably more important than the comfortable sets he played on either side of the collapse.
Monfils should create another surge. His serve, forehand and relationship with the New York crowd can carry him through one set while keeping the game spread competitive. Across four sets, Tien’s younger legs and more dependable baseline patterns should become decisive. Expect the American to survive the noise, extend rallies and gradually expose the difference in physical consistency.
- Prediction: Learner Tien wins 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
- Best Bet: Gael Monfils +6.5 Games
- Totals Pick: Over 34.5 Games
- Correct-Score Pick: Learner Tien to Win 3-1
- Set Pick: Gael Monfils to Win a Set
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