US Open: Osaka vs Mertens Odds, Picks & How to Watch
Naomi Osaka under the New York lights is never just another favorite. On Saturday, September 5, the two-time US Open champion returns to Louis Armstrong Stadium for a third-round showdown with Elise Mertens.
Mertens has reached this stage without dropping a set, but recent history makes the matchup uncomfortable. Osaka beat her 6-3, 6-3 in June before delivering a 6-1, 6-2 demolition in Toronto last month. The moneyline points toward Osaka. The better betting question is whether she wins by enough.
Preparing your Saturday card? Use our expert tennis betting guide to compare US Open markets before locking in a wager.
Osaka vs Mertens Betting Odds
| Market | Reference Line | Place Bet Now! |
|---|---|---|
| Naomi Osaka ML | -275 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Elise Mertens ML | +245 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 21.5 Games | +100 | -120 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
Expert Picks: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens
🥇 Best Bet: Naomi Osaka -4.5 Games
Osaka has found answers quickly in this matchup, winning the past two meetings by nine and six games. Her first-strike power prevents Mertens from establishing the patient patterns she prefers. Even a competitive 6-3, 6-4 result covers this spread, making -4.5 more attractive than paying the expensive moneyline.
Pick 2: Naomi Osaka to Win 2-0
Mertens is an intelligent counterpuncher, but she has not taken a set from Osaka across their previous four meetings. Osaka’s serve provides cheaper holds, while her pace can rush Mertens into defensive replies. If the favorite maintains her aggression without repeating the second-set lapse she had against Siniakova, two sets should be enough.
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Pick 3: Under 21.5 Total Games
The two 2026 meetings produced only 18 and 15 games. Mertens can extend rallies, but her recent difficulty containing Osaka’s power creates the possibility of another relatively short match. A 6-3, 6-4 Osaka victory finishes on 19 games, leaving useful breathing room beneath the listed total.
Pick 4: Elise Mertens Under 8.5 Total Games
This market needs Osaka to control the scoreboard, not necessarily dominate every rally. Mertens collected six total games against Osaka in June and only three in Toronto. Osaka’s ability to attack second serves and shorten service games should limit the underdog’s opportunities to build enough holds to reach nine.
The Moneyline Says Osaka; The Spread Offers More
A price of -275 gives Osaka an implied win probability of approximately 73.3%. It also requires a bettor to risk $275 to make $100 in profit.
That price leaves little room for error. The -4.5-game spread near even money provides a more appealing route for bettors expecting Osaka to translate her matchup advantage into the score. She has already cleared that number twice against Mertens this season:
- Won 6-3, 6-3 in Bad Homburg
- Won 6-1, 6-2 in Toronto
- Covered -4.5 games in both matches
- Won all four sets
- Allowed nine combined games across those four sets
Mertens is playing well enough to avoid being dismissed, but the recent evidence gives Osaka’s game handicap a stronger value case than her moneyline.
Osaka vs Mertens Matchup Comparison
| Category | Naomi Osaka | Elise Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| WTA Ranking | No. 13 | No. 20 |
| Age | 28 | 30 |
| Height | 5’11” | 5’10” |
| 2026 US Open Sets | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| Best US Open Result | Champion, 2018 and 2020 | Quarterfinalist, 2019 and 2020 |
| Career Major Titles | 4 | 0 |
| Head-to-Head | Leads 6-3 | Trails 3-6 |
Key Betting Trends
- Osaka leads the professional head-to-head 6-3.
- Osaka has won their previous four meetings.
- The Japanese star has taken the last eight sets between them.
- Osaka won both 2026 meetings in straight sets.
- Mertens collected only nine combined games in those two defeats.
- Both 2026 meetings finished under 21.5 games.
- Osaka has dropped one set through two US Open rounds.
- Mertens has not dropped a set in New York.
- Osaka is a two-time US Open singles champion.
- Mertens reached consecutive US Open quarterfinals in 2019 and 2020.
Osaka vs Mertens Head-to-Head
| Year | Tournament | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Toronto | Naomi Osaka | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 2026 | Bad Homburg | Naomi Osaka | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 2024 | ’s-Hertogenbosch | Naomi Osaka | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 2024 | Indian Wells | Elise Mertens | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 2024 | Toronto | Elise Mertens | 6-3, 6-4 |
Where to Watch Osaka vs Mertens in the US
- Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
- Round: Third Round/Round of 32
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York
- TV: ESPN2
- Streaming: ESPN App and ESPN Unlimited
- Spanish-language coverage: ESPN Deportes
Final Prediction: Will Osaka’s Power Break Through Again?
Mertens is too experienced and too tactically sound to hand Osaka the match. She will change direction, test Osaka’s patience, and search for the same error-filled stretches that allowed Siniakova to force a deciding set.
The matchup nevertheless favors Osaka. Her serve should create more comfortable holds, and the return battle gives her repeated opportunities to attack Mertens’ second delivery. Most importantly, Osaka has solved this matchup decisively twice in the past three months. Expect Mertens to offer greater resistance than she did in Toronto. Expect Osaka’s first-strike tennis to remain the deciding force.
- Prediction: Naomi Osaka wins 6-3, 6-3
- Best Bet: Naomi Osaka -4.5 Games
- Set Pick: Naomi Osaka to Win 2-0
- Totals Play: Under 21.5 Games
- Player Total: Elise Mertens Under 8.5 Games
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