US Open: Paul vs Alcaraz Odds, Picks & How to Watch
New York has been waiting for an American man to make a serious move. On Sunday, September 6, Tommy Paul gets his chance and arguably the toughest assignment remaining in the draw when he faces defending champion Carlos Alcaraz.
Paul brings the crowd, the speed, and two previous hard-court victories over Alcaraz. He also brings heavy legs after surviving Alexander Bublik in five sets. Alcaraz arrives from the opposite direction: one set dropped, 17 consecutive Grand Slam wins, and another level seemingly unlocked with every round. The favorite should advance. The real betting opportunity may be finding the margin.
Building your Sunday card? Use our expert tennis betting guide to compare markets before wagering on the US Open Round of 16.
Paul vs Alcaraz Betting Odds
| Market | Reference Line | Place Bet Now! |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Paul ML | +375 | Place Bet @ FanDuel |
| Carlos Alcaraz ML | -400 | Place Bet @ FanDuel |
| O/U | 38.5 Games | +115 | -145 | Place Bet @ FanDuel |
Expert Picks: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
🥇 Best Bet: Tommy Paul +6.5 Games
Paul does not need to win a set for this handicap to cash. He covered the same number when Alcaraz beat him 7-6, 6-4, 7-5 at the Australian Open. The American’s early ball-striking and home support should produce enough competitive sets to keep the final game margin inside seven.
Pick 2: Carlos Alcaraz to Win 3-0
This is where Paul’s workload becomes difficult to ignore. He has already played 13 sets and 125 games in New York, including five sets against Bublik. Alcaraz has played 10 sets and 89 games. If the favorite makes Paul defend repeatedly, the American may compete closely without having the legs to extend the match.
Planning to back the defending champion? Check the latest FanDuel deposit bonus before placing your US Open picks.
Pick 3: Under 38.5 Total Games
Alcaraz winning efficiently is the clearest path to the under. A competitive straight-set score such as 7-6, 6-3, 6-4 produces only 32 games. Even four sets could stay below 38.5 if the Spaniard creates one lopsided frame. Paul’s physical workload makes a long fifth set less likely.
Pick 4: First Set Over 9.5 Games
Paul’s best tennis should come early, before Alcaraz’s movement and variety begin draining his legs. Their Australian Open meeting opened with a tiebreak, while Paul took the first set from Alcaraz at Wimbledon in 2024. An opening score of 6-4, 7-5 or 7-6 is firmly in play.
The Market Gives Paul a Chance, Just Not Much of One
- Alcaraz’s -400 moneyline carries an implied probability of 80%. Bettors must risk $400 to make $100 in profit, making the outright market difficult to recommend.
- Paul at +375 is tempting because he has beaten Alcaraz twice, but both victories came in Canada in 2022 and 2023. Alcaraz has since taken control of the rivalry, winning their previous five official ATP meetings.
- The better question is not whether Alcaraz advances. It is whether Paul can remain close enough to cover the game spread.
- That is why Paul +6.5 games holds more appeal than the American’s moneyline. It leaves room for Alcaraz to win in straight sets while rewarding Paul for stretching two or three sets into competitive territory.
Paul vs Alcaraz Matchup Comparison
| Category | Tommy Paul | Carlos Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Ranking | No. 21 | No. 3 |
| Age | 29 | 23 |
| Height | 6’1” | 6’0” |
| 2026 US Open Sets | 9-4 | 9-1 |
| 2026 US Open Games Played | 125 | 89 |
| Best US Open Result | Fourth Round | Champion |
| Grand Slam Singles Titles | 0 | 7 |
| Official ATP Head-to-Head | Trails 2-6 | Leads 6-2 |
Key Betting Trends
- Alcaraz leads the official ATP head-to-head 6-2.
- The Spaniard has won their previous five official meetings.
- Including the 2024 Olympic quarterfinal, Alcaraz leads the on-court series 7-2.
- Alcaraz beat Paul in straight sets at the 2026 Australian Open.
- Paul covered a 6.5-game handicap in that Australian Open defeat.
- Alcaraz has dropped only one set through three US Open rounds.
- Paul has dropped four sets across his opening three matches.
- Paul has played 13 sets compared with Alcaraz’s 10.
- Alcaraz carries a 17-match Grand Slam winning streak.
- Paul has already overcome two four-set matches and one five-set match in New York.
- Alcaraz is attempting to win his third US Open title.
Paul vs Alcaraz Head-to-Head
| Year | Tournament | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Australian Open | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(6), 6-4, 7-5 |
| 2025 | French Open | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-0, 6-1, 6-4 |
| 2024 | Olympic Games | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3, 7-6(7) |
| 2024 | Wimbledon | Carlos Alcaraz | 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 |
| 2024 | Indian Wells | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3, 6-3 |
Where to Watch Paul vs Alcaraz in the US
- Date: Sunday, September 6, 2026
- Round: Fourth Round/Round of 16
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York
- TV: ESPN during the opening Sunday coverage window
- Streaming: ESPN App and ESPN Unlimited
- Later coverage: ABC is scheduled to carry US Open action
Final Prediction: Can Paul Push Alcaraz Without Taking a Set?
Paul is not a routine fourth-round opponent. He owns two victories over Alcaraz, has previously reached No. 8 in the world, and understands how to disrupt the Spaniard on hard courts. The concern is what remains in the tank. Paul has already played 125 games and is coming off a five-set fight. Alcaraz has played 36 fewer games, dropped only one set, and appears increasingly comfortable following his lengthy injury absence.
Expect Paul to use the crowd and his early ball-striking to make the opening set extremely competitive. Once Alcaraz settles into the match, his movement, return pressure and ability to change pace should take over. Paul can keep the scoreboard respectable. Winning three sets against a fresher Alcaraz is a different demand entirely.
- Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz wins 7-6, 6-3, 6-4
- Best Bet: Tommy Paul +6.5 Games
- Set Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to Win 3-0
- Totals Play: Under 38.5 Games
- First-Set Pick: Over 9.5 Games
| Curious about betting predictions for other sports? | |
|---|---|
| 🏟️ Expert betting predictions all Sports | 🚀 Parlay bet picks |
| 🏈 NFL expert picks | 🏀 NBA expert picks |
| 🏒 NHL picks | ⚽ Soccer predictions |
| 🏁 Nascar predictions | 🎾 Tennis expert predictions |
| 🥊 UFC predictions |
