US Open: Prizmic vs Paul Odds, Picks & How to Watch

The rankings say routine. The first-round evidence says sweat. Tommy Paul enters Wednesday’s US Open second-round match as a heavy home favorite, but the American has lost the opening set in four consecutive completed matches. Dino Prizmic arrives after saving two match points and surviving a five-set fight with Aleksandr Shevchenko.

Paul should eventually own the physical and tactical advantage. Still, Prizmic possesses enough firepower to extend this match before his four-hour opener begins collecting interest. That makes the totals and set markets more appealing than Paul’s expensive moneyline.

Building a Grand Slam card? Explore our latest tennis predictions before betting Wednesday’s US Open schedule.

Prizmic vs Paul Betting Odds

Market	Reference Line	Place Bet Now!
Dino Prizmic ML	+355	Place Bet @ BetMGM
Tommy Paul ML	-435	Place Bet @ BetMGM
O/U | 37.5 Games	+105 | -125	Place Bet @ BetMGM

Expert Picks: Dino Prizmic vs Tommy Paul

🥇 Best Bet: Over 35.5 Total Games

Paul’s opener produced 38 games, while Prizmic needed 48 to escape Shevchenko. The Croatian owns enough weight of shot to steal a set, and Paul has dropped the opener in four consecutive completed matches. Even if the American eventually separates, four competitive sets should push this second-round matchup beyond the posted number in New York.

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Pick 2: Tommy Paul -4.5 Games

Paul recovered sharply after losing a tiebreak to Wong, winning the final three sets by a combined 18-7. His speed, return consistency and ability to change direction should increasingly expose Prizmic’s tired legs. A four-set victory still leaves plenty of room to cover, especially if one set becomes lopsided late in the match on Wednesday.

Pick 3: Tommy Paul to Win 3-1

Prizmic showed real nerve by saving two match points and closing a 3-hour, 54-minute battle. That fight makes a straight-set dismissal less appealing. Paul is the cleaner hard-court player and should dominate the later exchanges, but the Croatian’s forehand and willingness to attack can earn him one set before fatigue takes over at Flushing Meadows.

Pick 4: First Set Over 9.5 Games

Paul has lost the first set in four straight completed matches, including against Wong, Cobolli, Zverev and Vallejo. Prizmic also started slowly against Shevchenko before finding his range. Neither player has established reliable early control, making one close break or a tiebreak the likeliest shape for Wednesday’s opening set under major pressure in New York.

Why the Over Is the Strongest Market

Neither player delivered a clean opening-round performance. Paul lost his opening tiebreak against qualifier Coleman Wong before taking command. Prizmic fell behind 6-2, required five sets and spent nearly four hours fighting past Shevchenko.

The difference is that both players became stronger once the match settled. Paul won his final three sets 6-1, 6-3, 6-3. Prizmic responded to his poor opening set by taking the next two 6-3, 6-3 and eventually surviving a 7-5 decider.

A four-set match only needs an average of 9.5 games per set to clear 37.5. One tiebreak or extended set would give the Over valuable breathing room.

First-Round Performance Check

Category	Dino Prizmic	Tommy Paul
Opponent	Aleksandr Shevchenko	Coleman Wong
Result	Won 3-2	Won 3-1
Match time	3h 54m	2h 41m
Total games	48	38
Points won	160	127
Break points converted	7-of-13	6-of-13
First set	Lost 2-6	Lost 6-7(3)
Final set played	Won 7-5	Won 6-3

Prizmic spent 73 additional minutes on court and played ten more games. Paul also had Monday and Tuesday available for recovery, but his shorter opening match remains a meaningful advantage if Wednesday extends beyond three hours.

Prizmic vs Paul Comparison

Category	Dino Prizmic	Tommy Paul
ATP Ranking	No. 102	No. 21
Age	21	29
Height	6’1”	6’1”
Plays	Right-handed	Right-handed
2026 Tour Record	13-11	37-16
Career ATP Titles	0	5
Best US Open Result	Second Round	Fourth Round

Key Betting Trends

• Paul is 37-16 at tour level in 2026.
• He has won four of his previous five matches.
• Paul defeated world No. 1 Alexander Zverev in Cincinnati.
• He has lost the opening set in four consecutive completed matches.
• Paul’s first-round victory produced 38 total games.
• Prizmic’s opener lasted five sets and 48 games.
• Prizmic saved two match points against Shevchenko.
• The Croatian hit 66 winners but committed 41 unforced errors.
• Both players converted seven or fewer of 13 break opportunities.
• Paul and Prizmic have never met at tour level.

Where to Watch Prizmic vs Paul in the US

• Date: Wednesday, September 2, 2026
• Round: Second Round/Round of 64
• Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
• Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York
• TV: ESPN coverage begins at 11:30 a.m. ET
• Streaming: ESPN App and ESPN Unlimited
• Whip-around coverage: RedZone at the US Open from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. ET
• Spanish coverage: ESPN Deportes

Final Prediction: Can Prizmic Test Paul?

Prizmic’s opening-round escape showed courage, shot-making and an impressive willingness to keep attacking under pressure. That same aggression should earn him opportunities against Paul.

The American remains the stronger selection. Paul owns the fresher legs, more reliable second serve and better defensive coverage. Once Prizmic’s first-serve percentage drops, Paul should begin controlling return games and forcing the Croatian into increasingly risky winners. Expect another uncertain start from Paul before his experience and physical advantage take control.

• Prediction: Tommy Paul wins 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-3
• Best Bet: Over 37.5 Total Games
• Spread Pick: Tommy Paul -4.5 Games
• Set Pick: Tommy Paul to Win 3-1
• Opening-Set Play: Over 9.5 Games

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