US Open: Pegula vs Kenin Odds, Picks & Where to Watch
Same tournament. Same round. Same all-American tension. Two years after Jessica Pegula eliminated Sofia Kenin in the US Open second round, the Americans return for a Wednesday rematch in New York. Pegula arrives as the world No. 3, a recent Cincinnati finalist and a commanding favorite. Kenin brings the danger of a former major champion who has already beaten Pegula twice—and covered this matchup’s likely game spread in their two latest meetings. The upset remains unlikely. The spread is far more interesting.
Looking for more value at Flushing Meadows? Use our expert tennis betting guide to compare spreads, totals and set markets throughout the US Open.
Pegula vs Kenin Betting Odds
| Market | Best Odds | Place Bet! |
|---|---|---|
| Jessica Pegula ML | -2000 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Sofia Kenin ML | +1150 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 19.5 Games | +170 | -215 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
Expert Picks: Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin
🥇 Best Bet: Sofia Kenin +6.5 Games
Kenin has covered this number in both recent meetings despite losing each in straight sets. She pushed Pegula to a first-set tiebreak at the 2024 US Open and took five games in their Charleston final’s second set. Kenin’s early ball-striking can keep one set tight, providing enough margin even if Pegula advances on Wednesday again.
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Pick 2: Jessica Pegula to Win 2-0
Pegula has won the last two meetings without surrendering a set and looked dialed in against Ruse, producing 26 winners in a 6-3, 6-2 opener. Kenin remains dangerous when she controls the baseline, but Pegula’s steadier serve, movement and depth should stop the former major champion from sustaining an upset push across three sets Wednesday.
Pick 3: First Set Over 8.5 Games
The previous US Open meeting opened with a tiebreak, and Kenin has enough familiarity with Pegula’s patterns to avoid an immediate rout. Pegula often builds pressure through placement rather than overwhelming pace. Four holds from Kenin should be sufficient, while a single exchange of breaks would also move the opening set beyond eight games comfortably.
Pick 4: Over 19.5 Total Games
This total can cash without demanding a third set. Kenin’s last two meetings with Pegula produced 22 and 21 games, while her opener against Williams reached 21. A 7-5 set creates immediate room, and Kenin’s return quality should generate enough resistance for the match to clear 19 games even in a Pegula sweep on Wednesday.
First-Round Form: Two Straight-Set Wins, Different Routes
| First-Round Marker | Jessica Pegula | Sofia Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | Venus Williams |
| Result | Won 6-3, 6-2 | Won 6-2, 7-6(6) |
| Sets lost | 0 | 0 |
| Total games | 17 | 21 |
| Winning margin | 7 games | 5 games |
| Defining stat | 26 winners | Won final six tiebreak points |
Pegula vs Kenin Head-to-Head
Pegula leads the completed series 4-2. The Americans have split their two hard-court major meetings, although Pegula won their most recent Grand Slam encounter in New York.
| Category | Jessica Pegula | Sofia Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| WTA ranking | No. 3 | No. 110 |
| Age | 32 | 27 |
| Height | 5’7” | 5’7” |
| Plays | Right-handed | Right-handed |
| Major singles titles | 0 | 1 |
| Best US Open result | Finalist, 2024 | Fourth round, 2020 |
| Head-to-head wins | 4 | 2 |
Key Betting Trends
- Pegula leads the career series 4-2.
- Pegula won the last two meetings in straight sets.
- Kenin covered +5.5 games in both of those defeats.
- Their 2024 US Open opening set required a tiebreak.
- Their two latest meetings produced 22 and 21 total games.
- Both players advanced without dropping a first-round set.
- Pegula defeated Ruse by seven games.
- Kenin defeated Williams by five games.
- Pegula reached the Cincinnati final immediately before the US Open.
- Kenin has won a major hard-court title, capturing the 2020 Australian Open.
Where to Watch Pegula vs Kenin in the US
- Date: Wednesday, September 2, 2026
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, New York
- TV: ESPN coverage begins at 11:30 a.m. ET
- Spanish-language TV: ESPN Deportes from 11:00 a.m. ET
- Streaming: ESPN App with an ESPN Unlimited subscription
- Additional coverage: RedZone at the US Open, 11:00 a.m.–6:00 p.m. ET
Final Prediction
Kenin is better than the three-digit ranking suggests. She owns major-winning experience, has beaten Pegula twice and has already shown she can stay within the likely handicap in this exact round at Flushing Meadows.
Pegula remains the deserved favorite. She is serving more reliably, moving better and producing cleaner tennis across complete matches. Her ability to absorb Kenin’s early strikes and redirect them into open space should gradually take control. Expect Kenin to make the opening set uncomfortable before Pegula creates separation. That points toward a straight-set favorite win—but not necessarily a blowout.
- Prediction: Jessica Pegula wins 7-5, 6-3
- Best Bet: Sofia Kenin +5.5 Games
- Set Pick: Jessica Pegula to Win 2-0
- Opening-Set Pick: First Set Over 8.5 Games
- Totals Pick: Over 19.5 Games
- Longshot Play: Pegula 2-0 and Over 19.5 Games
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