US Open: Shelton vs Tsitsipas Odds, Picks & How to Watch
Six matches. Six four-set finishes. Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas have taken precisely the same route into the second week, each winning every US Open match 3-1. On Sunday, September 6, only one survives their Round of 16 collision.
The rankings scream Shelton. The matchup deserves more respect. Tsitsipas has already eliminated Arthur Fils and Jiri Lehecka, while his only previous meeting with Shelton produced two tiebreaks and a Greek victory. Expect booming serves, abbreviated rallies, and a total that could climb quickly.
Ready for another New York shootout? Use our expert tennis betting guide to compare the best US Open markets before wagering.
Shelton vs Tsitsipas Betting Odds
| Market | Reference Line | Place Bet Now! |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Shelton ML | -270 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas ML | +235 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
| O/U | 39.5 Games | -125 | +100 | Place Bet @ BetMGM |
Expert Picks: Ben Shelton vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
🥇 Best Bet: Over 39.5 Total Games
Five of the six matches these players have completed in New York reached at least 35 games, with four clearing 39.5. Their only previous meeting featured two tiebreaks, and neither man has won in straight sets this fortnight. Four competitive sets should give the over every opportunity to cash.
Pick 2: Ben Shelton to Win 3-1
There is something beautifully symmetrical about this bet: Shelton has won all three rounds 3-1, and Tsitsipas has done exactly the same. Shelton’s serve, forehand, and crowd support should eventually separate them, but the Greek has played too well to dismiss. Another four-set finish offers far better value than Shelton’s expensive moneyline.
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Pick 3: Stefanos Tsitsipas +4.5 Games
Tsitsipas can lose the match and still cover this handicap. His first serve has been productive, his forehand is firing, and he has already defeated two seeded opponents. If the match contains one or two tiebreaks, Shelton may struggle to create the five-game margin required to beat this spread.
Pick 4: First Set Over 10.5 Games
Shelton and Tsitsipas played two sets in their only previous meeting. Both required tiebreaks. Neither return game is consistently dominant against elite first serving, and both players should arrive determined to protect the opening exchanges. One early break does not necessarily kill this wager—a 7-5 set also gets it home.
The Market Respects Shelton But the Total Tells the Story
- Shelton’s -270 moneyline carries an implied win probability of approximately 73%. Bettors must risk $270 to make $100 in profit, leaving limited value unless the American is included in a parlay.
- The total is more appealing. Every Shelton match at this US Open has lasted four sets. Every Tsitsipas match has lasted four sets. Together, they have played 24 sets and dropped six of them. Their match totals provide a clearer picture:
Ben Shelton’s US Open Match Totals
- 35 games vs. Tallon Griekspoor
- 46 games vs. Hubert Hurkacz
- 45 games vs. Denis Shapovalov
Stefanos Tsitsipas’ US Open Match Totals
- 40 games vs. Arthur Fils
- 45 games vs. Lloyd Harris
- 35 games vs. Jiri Lehecka
Four of those six matches exceeded 39.5 games. The other two stopped at 35 despite lasting four sets. With two powerful servers and little separating them in the only previous meeting, the over remains the strongest starting point.
Shelton vs Tsitsipas Matchup Comparison
| Category | Ben Shelton | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Ranking | No. 9 | No. 53 |
| Age | 23 | 28 |
| Height | 6’4” | 6’4” |
| 2026 Record | 36-13 | 24-19 |
| 2026 US Open Sets | 9-3 | 9-3 |
| US Open Games Played | 126 | 120 |
| Best US Open Result | Semifinalist, 2023 | Fourth Round, 2026 |
| Head-to-Head | Trails 0-1 | Leads 1-0 |
Key Betting Trends
- Shelton and Tsitsipas have each won all three US Open matches 3-1.
- Both players carry a 9-3 set record into the fourth round.
- Four of their six combined matches have cleared 39.5 games.
- Tsitsipas has dropped the opening set in all three rounds.
- Tsitsipas recovered to win the next three sets in every match.
- Shelton has played two consecutive matches featuring at least 45 games.
- Shelton hit 14 aces against Shapovalov, including a 147 mph serve.
- Tsitsipas beat Shelton 7-6(3), 7-6(2) in their only previous meeting.
- Tsitsipas has already eliminated two seeded opponents in New York.
- Shelton’s third-round match ended at 2:07 a.m. Saturday.
- This is Tsitsipas’ first career appearance in the US Open fourth round.
- Shelton reached the US Open semifinals in 2023.
Where to Watch Shelton vs Tsitsipas in the US
- Date: Sunday, September 6, 2026
- Round: Fourth Round/Round of 16
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York
- TV: ESPN during the opening Sunday coverage window
- Streaming: ESPN App and ESPN Unlimited
- Later coverage: ABC is scheduled to carry US Open action beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET
Final Prediction: Can Shelton End Tsitsipas’ Revival?
Tsitsipas has already made his point. The former world No. 3 can still beat dangerous opponents, recover from poor starts, and navigate major-tournament pressure.
Shelton presents a different problem. His left-handed serve can repeatedly target the Tsitsipas backhand, while the New York crowd should lift him through any physically difficult stretches. The American must recover quickly from his late finish, but he can protect his legs by holding efficiently and attacking early.
Expect Tsitsipas to take a set. Expect tiebreaks, or at least several sets decided by a single break. Ultimately, Shelton’s serve and forehand should provide the extra gear required to reach the quarterfinals.
- Prediction: Ben Shelton wins 7-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-4
- Best Bet: Over 39.5 Games
- Match Pick: Ben Shelton to Win 3-1
- Spread Pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas +4.5 Games
- First-Set Pick: Over 10.5 Games
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