UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland Odds, Picks & Where to Stream Live
- May 9, 2026 | Prudential Center — Newark, New Jersey
- Main Event | UFC Middleweight Championship
- Streaming: Paramount+
UFC 328 delivers one of the year’s biggest grudge matches as undefeated middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev defends his title against former champion Sean Strickland in Newark.
This is more than a title fight—it’s a clash between overwhelming pressure wrestling and one of the toughest, highest-volume strikers in MMA. Chimaev has physically dominated almost everyone he’s faced, but questions about his cardio still linger deep into championship fights. Strickland, meanwhile, weaponizes pace, durability, and mental pressure better than almost anyone at 185 pounds.
The betting question is whether Strickland can survive the early wrestling storms long enough to drag Chimaev into exhausting championship rounds where volume and attrition begin to matter.
Chimaev vs Strickland UFC 328 Odds Outlook
| Market | Odds | Play Now! |
|---|---|---|
| Chimaev Moneyline | -575 | Place Bet @ bet365 |
| Strickland Moneyline | +425 | Place Bet @ bet365 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -120 / -110 | Place Bet @ bet365 |
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Expert UFC Picks: Chimaev vs Strickland Top 3 Bets & Insights
🥇 Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (-120)
The total is the strongest angle because Strickland’s durability historically forces extended fights. He has never been submitted in MMA and has only one UFC knockout loss despite facing elite middleweights. Chimaev’s last two high-level fights against Dricus du Plessis and Kamaru Usman both reached the scorecards. Even if Chimaev controls early wrestling exchanges, Strickland’s cardio and defensive shell should push this beyond halfway.
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Pick 2: Khamzat Chimaev by Decision (+320)
The market still prices Chimaev like a pure destroyer, but his biggest fights have shown a more measured reality. Both Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman pushed him to decisions, and Strickland’s durability profile is arguably stronger at middleweight. Chimaev’s 5.29 takedown average and elite chain wrestling can consistently bank rounds without requiring a finish, especially if Strickland survives the opening grappling waves.
Value Play: Fight Goes the Distance (+225)
This prop aligns with both fighters’ strengths. Strickland survives through volume, defensive awareness, and constant movement, while Chimaev increasingly prioritizes control over reckless finishing attempts in championship fights. Three of Strickland’s last five fights reached decision, and Chimaev’s highest-level matchups have become more measured over time. If Strickland survives the first ten minutes, his six significant strikes landed per minute and his championship cardio can force Chimaev into uncomfortable late-fight exchanges.
Tale of the Tape: Chimaev vs Strickland
| Category | Chimaev | Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-0-0 | 30-7-0 |
| Age | 32 | 35 |
| Height | 6’2” | 6’1” |
| Reach | 75” | 76” |
| AVG. Fight Time | 8:11 | 15:54 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Recent Form & Fight News
- Chimaev won the middleweight title with a dominant decision over Dricus du Plessis
- Strickland rebounded into title contention with a major win over Anthony Hernandez
- Chimaev remains undefeated with victories over multiple former champions
- Both fighters previously trained together, adding personal tension to the matchup
Chimaev vs Strickland Stats & Facts
- Chimaev averages 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes
- Strickland lands 6.04 significant strikes per minute
- Chimaev has never been taken down in professional MMA
- Strickland has never been submitted in his MMA career
- Chimaev landed 12 takedowns in his title-winning performance vs Du Plessis
Where to Watch Chimaev vs Strickland (U.S. Viewers)
- Early Prelims: 9:00 PM ET
- Prelims: 11:00 PM ET
- Main Card: 1:00 AM ET
- Streaming: Paramount+
- Location: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Final Prediction for Chimaev vs Strickland
This fight is much more competitive than the betting line suggests. Strickland has the toughness, cardio, and defensive structure to survive where most opponents break early.
Still, Chimaev’s wrestling pressure is difficult to neutralize for 25 minutes, and repeated takedowns should allow him to build a lead before Strickland’s late-fight volume becomes fully effective.
- Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev wins by decision
- Best Bet: Chimaev + Over 2.5 Rounds
- Value Play: Chimaev by Decision
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