UFC Vegas 119: Kape vs Horiguchi Odds, Picks & Where to Stream Live
A rivalry nearly nine years in the making finally gets its sequel on Saturday, June 20, 2026, as Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi collide in the UFC Vegas 119 main event at the APEX in Las Vegas. Back in 2017, it was Horiguchi who walked away with a third-round submission victory over a young and inexperienced Kape. A lot has changed since then.
Kape is now the UFC’s No. 2-ranked flyweight, riding a three-fight finishing streak and arguably fighting the best MMA of his career. Horiguchi remains one of the most respected lightweight fighters of his generation, but at 35, he enters as the older man against a faster, more explosive version of the opponent he once beat.
Looking for more fight picks? Check out our latest UFC predictions for expert bets, prop plays, and main-event breakdowns.
Kape vs Horiguchi Odds Outlook
| Fight Lines | Odds | Bet Now! |
|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | -165 | Place Bet @ bet365 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | +140 | Place Bet @ bet365 |
| O/U | 4.5 Rounds | -125 | -105 | Place Bet @ bet365 |
Expert UFC Picks: Kape vs Horiguchi Top 3 Bets
🥇 Best Bet: Manel Kape Moneyline (-165)
Kape appears to hold the advantages that matter most in this rematch. He’s younger, faster, more powerful, and carries a massive five-inch reach advantage. After three straight finishes, his confidence is sky-high, and his takedown defense should help keep the fight where he wants it. Best Bet: Manel Kape Moneyline (-155 at bet365).
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Pick 2: Manel Kape by KO/TKO
Seven of Kape’s last eight UFC wins have come through overwhelming striking performances. Horiguchi remains durable, but Kape’s speed and power have reached another level. If the fight stays standing for extended periods, the Portuguese star has real finishing upside. Pick: Manel Kape by KO/TKO.
Pick 3: Fight Goes the Distance — Yes
Horiguchi’s experience cannot be ignored. He’s one of the smartest fighters in the division and has never been easy to put away. If he can mix in wrestling and avoid prolonged exchanges, this could become a tactical five-round battle rather than a shootout. Value Play: Fight Goes the Distance — Yes.
Tale of the Tape
| Category | Manel Kape | Kyoji Horiguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-7 | 36-5 |
| Ranking | #2 | #5 |
| Age | 32 | 35 |
| Height | 5’5″ | 5’4″ |
| Reach | 68″ | 63″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Sig. Strikes Per Minute | 5.04 | 3.77 |
| Takedown Avg | 0.40 | 1.61 |
Kape vs Horiguchi Stats & Facts
- Horiguchi submitted Kape in their first meeting in 2017
- Kape has won seven of his last eight UFC fights
- Kape enters on a three-fight finishing streak
- Horiguchi is 2-0 since returning to the UFC
- Kape owns a five-inch reach advantage
- Title-shot implications are likely attached to the winner
Where to Watch
- Event: UFC Vegas 119
- Venue: Meta APEX, Las Vegas
- Streaming: Paramount+
- Main Card: 8:00 PM ET
Final Prediction
The first fight feels almost irrelevant. That bout took place nearly a decade ago when Kape was still developing, and Horiguchi was the more complete fighter. Today, the advantages have shifted.
Horiguchi’s wrestling and experience should make this competitive early, but Kape’s athleticism, reach, and knockout power feel like the difference-makers over five rounds. Eventually, the pressure and speed become too much.
- ✅ Best Bet: Manel Kape Moneyline (-155)
- 🔥 Value Play: Fight Goes the Distance — Yes
- 💰 Prop Pick: Manel Kape by KO/TKO
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