Arizona Wildcats @ Baylor Bears NCAAB 02/24/2026
Tuesday night brings a tasty Big 12 showdown as the Arizona Wildcats head into Texas to face the Baylor Bears. From a betting perspective, it’s a classic clash of profiles: Arizona rides in atop the conference on the strength of a dominant efficiency margin and consistent road form, while Baylor has been scrappy at home and just snagged a confidence-boosting win. The Wildcats’ trend lines point to a high ceiling on both ends, but the Bears have a knack for making games ugly and leveraging crowd energy. With Arizona’s recent form stabilizing and Baylor battling inconsistency, the number will likely hinge on how much you trust Arizona’s two-way averages versus Baylor’s home-court grit. Let’s break it down with three targeted angles: moneyline, spread, and total.
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Our 3 betting predictions for Arizona Wildcats @ Baylor Bears
1) Spread pick: Arizona -5.5
Arizona’s game-over-game profile screams “gap team.” The Wildcats’ average margin sits firmly positive, and their per-game scoring/allowance splits indicate a steady ability to build leads and hold them late. Baylor’s been punchy in spots, but overall results have been volatile with a negative average margin. Arizona’s road performances have generally traveled well this season, and its defense tends to create separation in second halves. Wildcats own the conference’s top-tier differential, translating to steady spread value on short numbers. Baylor’s form over the last five tilts (1–4) has included slow starts that can doom a spread chase. Arizona’s offense stacks well against Baylor’s average points allowed per game. Tip: Arizona -5.5 up to -6 at -110 with FanDuel Sportsbook.
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2) Moneyline: Arizona to win
Even on the road, Arizona profiles as the more bankable side. The Wildcats bring a strong per-game scoring average and keep opponents in check on the other end. Baylor’s had a few bright spots, but sustained efficiency has been the issue. When these edges show up in margin-based metrics and recent trends, the moneyline tilts toward the Wildcats. Projected win probability: roughly 63% for Arizona, equating to about -170 as a fair price. Arizona’s last five record (3–2) edges Baylor’s (1–4), and the Wildcats’ top-of-table status isn’t a fluke. Tip: Arizona ML to about -170.
3) Over/Under: Over 148.5
The scoring math is interesting here. Arizona’s average points per game hover in the mid-80s, while Baylor’s offensive average sits in the low 70s. Defensively, Arizona allows low 70s on average; Baylor allows mid-to-high 70s. Blend those profiles, and you land near a mid- to upper-140s expectation before pace and late-game free throws. Arizona’s efficiency often forces opponents to keep up, and Baylor has enough shot-making to push this into the upper range if the tempo lifts. Arizona’s offense drives a strong baseline total; Baylor contributes just enough to clear a mid-140s mark. Foul rates late can add a few extra points in close possessions. Our model shades the Over near 58% at fair odds of -115 with bet365.
Team Statistics Snapshot
Baylor Bears: Searching for stability amid inconsistency
- Record: 4 wins, 10 losses (Win% 0.286); 13th in the conference table.
- Recent form: 1 win, 4 losses in the last five.
- Most recent result: Home win over Arizona State, a much-needed boost.
- Average points scored per game: approximately 72.4.
- Average points allowed per game: approximately 77.1.
- Average scoring margin: about -4.8 per game.
Baylor’s path to an upset relies on tightening the defense and controlling the glass. When the Bears avoid foul trouble and string together efficient trips, they can grind opponents into uncomfortable possessions. But the room for error stays thin against top-tier efficiency like Arizona’s.
Arizona Wildcats: Elite profile with two-way punch
- Record: 12 wins, 2 losses (Win% 0.857); 1st in the conference.
- Recent form: 3 wins, 2 losses in the last five.
- Most recent result: Road win at Houston, a notable resume booster.
- Average points scored per game: approximately 84.3.
- Average points allowed per game: approximately 70.6.
- Average scoring margin: about +13.7 per game.
Arizona’s averages translate into repeatable edges: they create clean looks, finish at a high rate, and guard in space. That mix often travels, which explains why their road performances have been trustworthy in conference play.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Arizona has navigated recent availability questions, notably with freshman standout Koa Peat sidelined due to a leg issue around mid-February, and wing depth has been impacted as well. Even so, the Wildcats’ next-man-up approach has held, with their frontcourt activity and secondary scoring keeping the offense afloat. Baylor’s rotation has been trimmed by injuries across the backcourt and frontcourt, nudging the Bears into seven-to-eight-man usage at times. That thinner bench can show up late, especially if pace climbs or foul counts tick up. The net of these factors: Arizona’s depth and two-way averages remain more bankable, but Baylor’s home edge and urgency create some volatility around the number.
Last direct match: Baylor Bears vs Arizona Wildcats
Arizona won the most recent head-to-head on the road by a single-digit margin, underscoring the Wildcats’ ability to manage tight late-game sequences away from home.
Performance last 5 Matches
Baylor: 1–4. Arizona: 3–2. Form leans Wildcats, though Baylor can swing above baseline at home.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re leaning into Arizona’s steadier profile. Our spread pick (Arizona -5.5 at around -110) reflects a meaningful edge in average margin and late-game execution. The moneyline recommendation (Arizona ~63% at about -170) is the lower-variance pathway if you want to avoid endgame sweat on the number. Finally, the total trends toward a higher-scoring script given Arizona’s offensive baseline and Baylor’s ability to contribute enough at home—hence the Over 148.5 call at roughly 58% with fair odds near -115. In short: Arizona’s two-way averages and recent stabilization carry the day, while Baylor’s inconsistency and thinner rotation make it tough to trust over 40 minutes. Our card: Arizona ATS, Arizona ML as a safer anchor, and Over 148.5 for a correlated play if Arizona’s pace and efficiency set the tone.
