Army @ Navy NCAA Football 12/13/2025
America’s favorite December ritual is back: Army vs. Navy, with bragging rights, service pride, and yes, betting angles that always feel a little different. Kickoff is Saturday, December 13, 2025, at 3:00 p.m., and while this rivalry is built on discipline and tradition, the markets care about the here and now. Navy’s sitting with the stronger season profile at 9-2 and a No. 1 in American, while Army’s 6-5 mark and No. 6 slot say “live underdog with a puncher’s chance.” The last time they met, Navy took it 31-13, and recent form keeps these two close: both are 3-2 over their last five.
For bettors, the lines underline it: Navy is priced as the favorite on the moneyline, Army at (Bet365), the spread is Navy -5.5, and the total sits at 37.5 with the Over at -125. It’s a rivalry that’s historically methodical, but Navy’s per-game scoring profile jumps off the page this year, and that matters when you’re deciding whether to lay the points or chase a total in the high 30s. Let’s break it down like it’s a two-minute drill: quick, sharp, and actionable.
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Our betting predictions for Army @ Navy
Main Tip: Spread – Navy -5.5
1) Spread: Navy -5.5 at -115 with Caesars. Why it’s first: Matchups and momentum. Navy’s offense isn’t just functional; it’s efficient. This year, the Navy is averaging about 32.5 points per game while allowing roughly 26.9. The Army averages about 23.0 and allows about 22.5. In a rivalry that often turns on field position and finishing drives, Navy’s scoring consistency gives it a reliable margin. My projection: Navy covers 54-56% of the time, aligning with the current price. Betting tip: Navy -5.5 at -115.
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Tip 2: Total – Over 37.5
Our second betting tip leans on the Total: Over 37.5 at -125 with BetMGM Sportsbook. I know the rivalry’s reputation—clock-chewing, option looks, fewer snaps—but Navy’s average offensive output this season points toward a game that can crack the upper 30s with a few efficient red-zone trips. The combined per-game scoring averages hover in the mid-50s, even if we adjust for rivalry tempo. Projection: Over cashes about 56-58% of the time at the current number and juice. Betting tip: Over 37.5 at -125 with BetMGM Sportsbook.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Navy ML
Moneyline: Navy ML at best odds (BetMGM Sportsbook). Price carries a tax, but this is the side if you’re playing straight-up. Implied probability is around 70%, and my number lands in the 68-71% range. Army’s path is real—field position wins, forcing a mistake or two—but Navy’s week-to-week scoring floor makes them the safer ticket. Betting tip: Navy to win at best odds with BetMGM.
Team Statistics and Current Form
Navy, the home side on the listing, rolls in with a 9-2 record—an 81.8% win rate and 18.2% loss rate, good enough for a No. 1 in American. If you’re looking for the simplest predictive signal in a rivalry packed with emotion, it’s that per-game scoring: roughly 32.5 points scored to 26.9 allowed. That’s a positive point differential of about +5.6 per game. Navy’s home/road profile listed this year shows perfect home form (6-0) and a solid road mark (4-2), lending a steady confidence to how they travel and how they respond when the script gets tight. The most recent outing—a 28-17 win over Memphis—supports the case that they’re closing the regular slate with balance, finishing drives, and maintaining defensive structure late in games.
From a style standpoint, the Navy’s identity still leans on option principles and physicality, but the story this season has been an offense that finishes drives at a higher clip. That’s how you translate possession into points. On defense, Navy’s per-game allowance suggests they bend at times but hold up enough to give their offense a chance to separate. The table standing reflects that consistency. Turnovers in this rivalry have a way of rewriting the script, and Navy’s recent trend of capitalizing on mistakes in big moments—especially against familiar option looks—has been notable.
Army comes in at 6-5, a 54.5% win rate and 45.5% loss rate with the No. 6 in American. Their per-game scoring sits around 23.0, and they allow about 22.5—a near-even point differential that often signals tight finishes. Recent form is steady (3-2 over the last five), and the latest result—a 27-24 win over UTSA—shows Army can grind out a possession game and close in the fourth quarter. The list away record of 4-2 points to a team comfortable in neutral or hostile environments, a useful trait in this annual showcase.
Army’s blueprint is familiar: stay on schedule on early downs, lean on disciplined option execution, and flip the field with special teams or timely pressures. They can absolutely win a game in the low 20s if they control tempo and win situational downs. The challenge against Navy’s profile this season is that a few empty drives can stretch the margin into that 4-to-10-point window where the spread becomes fragile for Army backers.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
A season ago, Navy handled this matchup with a multi-phase performance—steady offense, timely stops, and big-play juice at the right moments. That win at 31-13 matters psychologically in a rivalry where momentum lingers. Quarterback play remains the swing factor for both sides in an option-heavy environment, and Navy’s ability to generate explosives through the air when defenses overcommit is a quiet edge. Turnovers were decisive last time—Navy protected the ball and tilted the takeaway battle—and that trend is relevant again. Special teams and field position typically amplify under neutral-site conditions, and coaching adjustments in the second half often decide it. Navy head coach: -.
Last direct match: Navy vs. Army
Navy 31-13 over Army in their most recent meeting.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Navy: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Army: 3 wins, 2 losses
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re leaning into the Navy’s scoring floor and season-long consistency. The moneyline price at -238 reflects a real edge, and our projection agrees—call it roughly a 68-71% win chance. But the cleaner ticket for value is the spread: Navy -5.5 tracks with how they’ve translated drives into points all season, and it syncs with a modest 54-56% cover probability in this matchup. As for the total, yes, this rivalry traditionally leans toward a controlled pace, but Navy’s per-game output is materially higher this year, and Army’s offense is capable of finishing enough drives to push this past the mid-30s. That’s why Over 37.5 gets our endorsement—especially if the game state shakes loose after halftime adjustments.
The bottom line: Navy to win (safer but juiced), Navy to cover -5.5 (the headline play), and Over 37.5 (market’s catching up, but not fully). The numbers point to the Navy’s efficiency, recent form, and a rivalry script that’s more open than the total suggests. That’s how we get to these three tips—measured, data-backed, and aligned with how this matchup is most likely to play out.
