Bellarmine Knights @ Kentucky Wildcats NCAAB 12/23/2025
Rupp Arena in Lexington has that December glow, and this one fits the mood: a holiday-week nonconference matchup with betting implications and a clear contrast in trajectories. Bellarmine arrives in transition under Doug Davenport, having taken on a gauntlet of high-major opponents and shown flashes but not yet achieved consistency. Kentucky, meanwhile, is stabilizing at home under head coach Mark Pope and trending up after a strong week. If you’re sizing this up from a wagering angle, you’re weighing Kentucky’s improving health and depth versus Bellarmine’s methodical tempo and willingness to grind possessions.
The market will likely frame this as a heavy favorite spot on the moneyline, a big number on the spread, and a total that hinges on whether Kentucky’s pace or Bellarmine’s deliberate rhythm rules the night. With an epic Matchday on Tuesday, December 23, 2025 (1:00 p.m. ET, SECN+), it’s also the last tune-up before league play—so motivation, rotations, and minutes distribution all matter for your pregame card.
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Our betting predictions: Bellarmine Knights @ Kentucky Wildcats
Main Tip: Spread pick – Kentucky -24.5
1) Spread pick: Kentucky to cover a -24.5 at -115 with Fanatics. Expect the line to settle in the mid-20s (projected -26.5). Why I like the Wildcats to cover: depth and athleticism at home, plus the return-to-form vibes we’ve seen at Rupp. Kentucky’s length on the perimeter should limit clean looks, and its bench unit gives Mark Pope lineup versatility to sustain runs. If the market hits -24.5, I’m still leaning Cats to cover given the matchup profile.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Kentucky Wildcats Moneyline
2) Moneyline: Kentucky Wildcats moneyline at best odds with bet365, projected probability 92–95% with implied pricing in the neighborhood of -1400 to -1800. This is the safest angle on the board, even if the juice is steep. Home floor, rising health, and a clear athletic gap point to a Wildcats win north of 9-in-10 times. My model pins Kentucky around a 94% win chance.
Tip 3: Total – Under 141.5
3) Total: Under if the number opens in the low 140s. Bellarmine prefers to run its offense in the half-court, shorten the game, and keep possessions manageable. If Kentucky gets a margin, the Knights’ pace tendencies can cap late-game trading. My lean is under 141.5 if offered at -120 with bet365, with a projection that this lands in a range where Kentucky’s defense and game control outweigh pure tempo boosts. If the total dips into the 130s, reassess; but at anything 140–143, I’m still on the Under.
Team Statistics: form, scoring averages, and how they travel to Tuesday
Kentucky Wildcats (home) — Current form: The Wildcats step into this Matchday with momentum at Rupp, where they’ve been perfect so far this season. Their last five shows three wins against two losses, and the trend line is pointed up, particularly with rotation pieces returning. At home, they’ve looked like a top-tier group that can stack stops in spurts and snowball a game in a few minutes. In recent form, Kentucky’s offense has hovered in the mid-70s per game, while the defense at Rupp has kept visitors in the lower ranges thanks to length and quick closeouts. That balance—and the way they string together multiple stops—has been the differentiator. They come into this final nonconference slot with a strong chance to fine-tune shot selection and transition decision-making before SEC play.
Bellarmine Knights (away) — Current form: Bellarmine’s last five also read 3–2, with the most recent outing a comfortable home performance that steadied the ship. But the road résumé is still a work in progress. Against high-majors, the Knights lean into a purposeful half-court style to slow the throttle, and you can see it in the numbers: using the last three high-major tests provided (Notre Dame, Northern Kentucky, Colorado), Bellarmine has averaged 70.0 points per game while allowing 81.7. That split tells the story—competitive stretches, but late-game scoring droughts can surface when the pace quickens or the rim protection ramps up. The Knights are reshaping under Doug Davenport, and while the structure is there, the margin for error is thin against elite length and athleticism.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Kentucky’s improving health matters. With head coach Mark Pope tightening combinations, Kentucky’s two-way ceiling rises when the rotation is closer to full strength. Guards have started to steady the offense, and the frontcourt’s switchability fuels defensive runs.
- For Bellarmine, Doug Davenport’s first season has featured new voices and a newer core learning the system. They’ve faced multiple power opponents already—vital reps, even if results have swung.
- Personnel notes to watch: Kentucky’s injury list has been trending the right way, while Bellarmine’s challenge is shot creation against high-major pressure.
- External factors: Rupp Arena in holiday week usually brings a lively crowd, but also a businesslike approach from the Wildcats. Travel is manageable for Bellarmine. Motivation edge leans Kentucky—final tune-up before SEC play.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Kentucky Wildcats: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Bellarmine Knights: 3 wins, 2 losses
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Here’s how we stitched the card together. First, Kentucky’s moneyline is the most likely outcome by a wide margin—my model lands around a 94% win probability. The juice is what it is, but the confidence level is warranted thanks to Rupp’s lift, a deeper and healthier roster, and Mark Pope’s flexibility to mix lineups until he finds the group that blows it open.
Second, the spread. In games like this, the margin is about sustained runs and bench-driven separation. Kentucky’s athleticism and length can flip two or three straight stops into 6–8 quick points more than once, and that’s often how big numbers get covered. With Bellarmine averaging 70.0 per game in recent high-major tests, any shooting lull can tilt this toward a Kentucky cover in the mid-20s.
Third, the total. If Kentucky controls the pace and forces longer half-court trips for Bellarmine, possessions come down, and clean looks shrink. That’s a favorable setup for an under when the number sits in the low 140s. If the market dives into the 130s, be careful—value shifts quickly—but the initial lean is Under, anchored by Kentucky’s ability to bottle up the arc and contest at the rim.
In short: Kentucky ML is the anchor, the Wildcats to cover is the ceiling play, and the Under in the low 140s is a smart complement if you expect Kentucky’s defense and half-court control to be the story. Holiday week, home floor, and improving health—this is a spot where the Wildcats should handle business and do it with enough cushion to cash.
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