Duke Blue Devils @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish NCAAB 02/24/2026
ACC hoops on a Tuesday night with betting angles? Yes, please. Duke heads to South Bend to take on Notre Dame at 7:00 PM ET, and the current form lines up like a classic road-favorite spot. The Blue Devils are rolling with a 13-1 conference mark, while the Irish are rebuilding on the fly at 3-11. The trend lines, advanced splits, and injury situation all tilt toward Duke, but this is still college basketball—home floor and motivation can tighten things up. If you’re shopping for value, think about how Notre Dame’s shorthanded backcourt impacts pace and shot quality, and how Duke’s defense travels. We’ll break down projections, probabilities with odds equivalents, and three actionable bets—moneyline, spread, and total—so you can decide how to stake your Tuesday bankroll.
Check the latest NCAA Basketball odds to compare spreads, totals, and moneylines—then lock in your best college basketball picks before the action tips off tonight.
Our 3 betting predictions for Duke Blue Devils @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
1) Total Points: Under 141.5 (lean)
Duke’s defense has been elite in league play, and Notre Dame’s offense is hampered without its lead guard. Using season-to-date conference numbers, Duke is averaging roughly 79.4 points per game while allowing just about 63.6. Notre Dame clocks in around 72.3 scored and 78.1 allowed. Blend those profiles with a likely moderate pace and the Irish’s limited creation, and this shapes up to the lower side of the 140s. Our projection lands near the low 140s, with a stronger chance the game drifts slightly below that number if Duke controls tempo after building a cushion. Estimated hit rate: about 58%. If you can snag Under 141.5 at -108 with BetMGM Sportsbook, that’s a playable edge.
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2) Moneyline: Duke to Win
This is the straightforward leg for parlays or moneyline backers. Duke’s two-way profile pops—top-tier efficiency, strong margin, and better depth across the rotation. Notre Dame has battled but remains undermanned, especially in late-game shot creation. We give Duke roughly a 76% win probability on the road, which translates to around -317 fair odds. If the market hangs something in the neighborhood of -360, it’s still reasonable; we’d avoid laying much worse than -400 unless tying it to other pieces.
3) Spread: Duke -9.5
Notre Dame has shown grit, but the matchup math is tough. With Duke allowing close to 63.6 per game in league action and pushing near 80 on offense, the expected margin falls into double digits more often than not. We price Duke -9.5 as a slight value, with an estimated 55% cover probability (fair odds at -122 with FanDuel Sportsbook). If you see -9.5 at the standard -120, that’s fair; -10 is still viable if the juice stays manageable. Betting tip: Duke -9.5 at around -122.
Team Statistics & Form Snapshot
Let’s translate season totals into per-game context. For Notre Dame, through 14 conference games, they’ve scored a cumulative 1,012 and conceded 1,093—good for roughly 72.3 points scored and 78.1 allowed per contest. That aligns with a team record of 3-11 in league play, currently 15th in the standings. The recent form also mirrors the macro numbers: one win in the last five, and a narrow road loss last time out. At home, they’ve been 2-4 in league play, which tells you the Purcell Pavilion bump has been modest but not absent.
Duke’s profile jumps off the page. Over the same 14-game window, the Blue Devils tally about 79.4 per game while allowing approximately 63.6. That’s a strong two-way differential and supports their 13-1 league mark and top spot in the standings. The recent five-game run (4-1) and a tight home win last time out underscore their ability to win different styles—grind-it-out or free-flowing. On the road in conference, they’re 6-1, and that travel-readiness is one reason their moneyline price will be stiff and justified.
- Notre Dame (conference): ~72.3 scored / ~78.1 allowed per game; 3-11 record; 2-4 at home.
- Duke (conference): ~79.4 scored / ~63.6 allowed per game; 13-1 record; 6-1 on the road.
- Recent form: ND 1-4 last five; Duke 4-1 last five.
- Net tendency: Duke’s defense suppresses opponent efficiency; Notre Dame’s offense has been streaky.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Context matters. Notre Dame’s backcourt has been depleted with star guard Markus Burton sidelined long-term after ankle surgery, removing their leading scorer and primary creator. Senior forward Kebba Njie is also out for the season, which trims frontcourt stability. The Irish even added multi-sport athlete Mark Zackery IV to help with depth. Duke, meanwhile, remains deep and balanced; Cooper Flagg is not part of this roster (he moved on to the NBA in 2025). With Duke operating like a top‑five program nationally this season and few major injury flags, the Blue Devils carry the matchup stability. Net effect: ND’s offense is more turnover‑prone and less efficient late in the clock, and Duke’s defense is well‑positioned to capitalize.
Last direct match: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Duke Blue Devils
The most recent head-to-head was a home win for Duke by roughly two possessions. That result fits the broader trend: Duke has held the upper hand in this matchup in recent seasons.
Performance last 5 Matches (5)
Notre Dame: 1 win, 4 losses, including a tight road setback in the last outing. Duke: 4 wins, 1 loss, capped by a narrow home win last time out.
How the Numbers Shape Our Betting Card
We’re building on three pillars:
- Efficiency gap: Duke’s per-game differential (~+15.8) vs. Notre Dame’s negative clip (~-5.8) creates a sturdy baseline for both ML and spread angles.
- Injury-adjusted offense: Notre Dame’s shot quality and late-clock creation dip markedly without Burton; that’s a current Under catalyst and a spread concern vs. Duke’s on-ball pressure.
- Travel form: Duke’s 6-1 road mark in league play suggests their defensive execution scales well outside Cameron Indoor.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our card stacks this way for a reason. The moneyline is the anchor: Duke’s two-way dominance, better depth, and road composure make them a justifiable favorite—playable to around -380. The spread at -9.5 hinges on the Irish’s scoring limitations and Duke’s defensive ceiling; with a 55% edge, we’ll lay the number at standard vig. Finally, the total leans under due to Notre Dame’s undermanned backcourt and Duke’s ability to throttle possessions and contest late-clock looks. If pace slows after a mid-game Duke surge, that’s typically Under-friendly. Put it together, and you’ve got a correlated profile: Duke ML, Duke -9.5, and Under 141.5, with the total as the most interesting standalone if you prefer to avoid laying points on the road.
Wager responsibly, shop for the best price, and remember: in college hoops, defense and depth travel—and Duke brings both to South Bend.
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