Houston Cougars @ Kansas Jayhawks NCAAB 02/23/2026

This one’s got Monday night energy written all over it. Houston heads to Kansas for a heavyweight Big 12 matchup that shapes the conference race and could swing seed lines come March. The Cougars bring a steadier season profile and lineup continuity, but they’ve recently hit a little turbulence on offense. Kansas, meanwhile, is nearly always a different animal on its home floor, even if the last week introduced a little doubt.

From a betting perspective, we’ve got a tight moneyline, a razor-thin spread, and a totals number that’s been shaded toward the low side thanks to both teams’ defensive reputations. The current market paints Houston as a small favorite on the road and pegs the total at a number that can be beaten if shot quality and free throws show up. Let’s dig into the picks, probabilities, and what actually drives value for this matchup on Monday, February 23, 2026, at 9:00 PM.

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Our 3 betting predictions for Houston Cougars @ Kansas Jayhawks

1) Over 136.0 Total Points — play the bounce-back at -116

Both teams are known for defense, and that’s exactly why this total sits where it does. But the number is modest for two offenses that, on average, can get into the low- to mid-70s per game in neutral conditions. Kansas has averaged about mid-70s scoring in recent form, and Houston’s last-10 stretch lands in the upper-70s on average. Even if tempo is controlled, you don’t need a track meet to clear 136 — you need efficient shot-making, decent spacing, and a whistle that rewards drives. With both sides coming off home losses, expect sharper execution and a stronger push to generate early offense. Kansas typically elevates at home, and Houston’s guard play can manufacture points late if the game tightens. A couple of late-game fouling sequences can be the final shove. The market’s leaning under because of defensive reputations; we’ll zag. Tip: Over 136.0 at -116 with bet365.

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2) Moneyline: Houston Cougars to Win

On a pure probability basis, Houston’s profile — elite defensive floor, stable rotations, and a slight edge in two-way efficiency — earns the Cougars a lean. We project Houston at around 57% to win, which lines up with the posted odds. Kansas’ home lift is real, but the Jayhawks’ recent wobble and the ongoing minute-management questions around Darryn Peterson give Houston a consistency advantage late in close games. If Kansas cleans up turnovers and snags a hot shooting night, the +money case is there, and some shops may show +110 to +130. Still, our number slightly favors Houston closing it out with late stops and half-court shot creation. Tip: Houston moneyline at best odds with BetMGM.

3) Spread: Houston -1.5

With a moneyline edge on Houston, the correlated spread at -1.5 makes sense. In a possession-game spread this short, you’re essentially betting on the Cougars to execute one or two more high-leverage possessions — a stop out of a timeout, a late clock three, or getting to the stripe in crunch time. Houston’s recent road hiccups are noted, but their average margin profile versus elite competition still travels because defense travels. Kansas’ offensive ceiling at home is high, yet if Peterson’s minutes fluctuate or the Jayhawks go through one of those late-game scoring lulls, Houston’s structure gives them the cover. Tip: Houston -1.5 at -115 with BetMGM Sportsbook.

Team Statistics and Current Form

Kansas Jayhawks: The Jayhawks sit at 10–4 overall (0.714 win rate), sixth in the conference table on the numbers given, with a strong home record and only a single home stumble to date. Over their last five, Kansas has gone 3–2, a split that reflects a team rediscovering rhythm after an eight-game heater earlier in league play. The most recent home loss added a layer of urgency, and momentum at Allen Fieldhouse is usually a stabilizer. In the last 10-game window, Kansas is averaging roughly mid-70s per outing while allowing about 70 per game, shooting around 47% from the field — a positive signal if they can maintain shot quality and limit giveaways.

Flory Bidunga’s inside presence (scoring, rebounding, rim protection) sets the physical tone, while Peterson, when fully available, elevates their shot-making ceiling and pressure on closeouts. The pivotal question for Kansas is ball security and consistent creation in second halves; that’s where some recent slippage has shown up.

Houston Cougars: The Cougars check in at 11–3 (0.786), slotted third by the listed table position, with balanced home and road marks that mirror a composed, veteran mindset. Their last five also show a 3–2 stretch, but the underlying efficiency remains solid: over the last 10, Houston has averaged high-70s scoring while opponents are held to the mid-60s on average. That gap is the Cougars’ identity — layered half-court defense, high hands, and turnover pressure that squeezes shot clocks. Kingston Fleming’s playmaking and Emanuel Sharp’s scoring punch headline the recent form, though efficiency dipped in the latest home stumble.

Big picture: Houston’s lineup continuity and defensive baseline give them a higher floor night to night. If they hit their average from deep and win turnover margin by even a couple of possessions, they usually land on the right side of a one-possession spread.

Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors

Kansas’ swing factor is Darryn Peterson’s availability and stamina; he’s flashed impact scoring lately but has battled multiple leg issues and occasional late-game limitations. If he’s on a full go, Kansas’ late-game shot creation materially improves. For Houston, Kelvin Sampson’s group has stayed consistent with the same starting five, reinforcing roles and defensive continuity. Flemings has provided steady distribution and rim pressure, while Sharp remains a high-variance scorer who can swing runs. Externally, Kansas’ home boost is well known, but Houston’s defense typically travels and can neutralize runs with disciplined closeouts and glass work. Expect a high-intensity environment and a whistle that rewards aggression off the bounce — free throws and bench stability could decide a tight final five minutes.

Last direct match: Kansas Jayhawks vs Houston Cougars

Recent head-to-heads leaned toward Houston, with the Cougars taking the latest meeting in a low-tempo, two-possession-type finish. Houston has also edged the series in the last couple of clashes.

Performance last 5 Matches

Both teams come in 3–2 over their last five. Kansas has mixed strong outings with a couple of off-nights shooting; Houston has shown elite defense as usual, but hit a brief dip in offensive rhythm.

TrustnBet Final Thoughts

We’re stacking our cards around three connected ideas. First, the Over 136.0 at -116 is a buy-low on two capable offenses with bounce-back potential after recent losses; the number is modest enough that normal efficiency and a competitive whistle can carry it. Second, Houston’s moneyline reflects a slight but real edge: better night-to-night defensive reliability, lineup stability, and a profile that holds up in late-game possessions.

Third, Houston -1.5 at -115 correlates with the ML lean — if the Cougars close this, a two-point margin is a fair expectation in a possession game. Our projection puts Houston around 57% with Kansas at 43%, acknowledging the Jayhawks’ legitimate home lift and the chance that Peterson’s full-strength version moves their ceiling higher. In a tight Big 12 grinder, defense and late-clock poise decide it — and that tilts just enough toward the Cougars to justify our card.

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