Indiana @ Ohio State NCAA Football 12/06/2025
Let’s set the stage like a Saturday night showcase in Columbus should be set: unbeaten Indiana heads into the Horseshoe to face unbeaten Ohio State, and bettors across the US are getting a real litmus test for where these programs stand right now. Both are 12-0, both just handled rivalry week with authority (Indiana rolled 56-3, Ohio State cruised 27-9), and both have looked the part for a long stretch. If you’re sizing up this game through a betting lens, a few things jump out: Ohio State at home, the Buckeyes’ stingy scoring defense, and Indiana’s explosive scoring average that travels.
It’s a true clash of styles and tempos, but make no mistake—this isn’t a coin flip. The market leans Buckeyes on the moneyline and makes this a one-score spread, which feels about right given the data. Think of this one as a test of Ohio State’s discipline and Indiana’s scoring pace, two strengths colliding under prime-time pressure. And yes, we’ll get into where the real value sits: spread, total, and moneyline.
Want a little more clarity before making your picks? Check the updated NCAA Football odds and see where early action is pushing the lines.
Our betting predictions for Indiana @ Ohio State
Main Tip: Spread – Indiana +5.5
Our best bet – Spread: Indiana +5.5 at -115 with bet365 Sportsbook. My number makes this closer than the narrative suggests. Indiana’s offense averages about 44.3 points per game, and while Ohio State’s defense is elite (allowing just 7.8 per game), the Hoosiers have consistently found ways to put multiple scores on the board, even on the road (37.6 per game away from home). Ohio State at home is a different animal, but I project a one-score finish more often than not. Pick: Indiana +5.5.
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Tip 2: Game Total – Over 47.5
Our second betting tip is on the Total: Over 47.5 at -125 with bet365. Ohio State’s home scoring profile is strong (around 41.6 per game in Columbus), and Indiana’s offense has traveled well all year. Combine that with the Hoosiers’ defensive average (allowing roughly 10.9) likely ticking up against Ohio State’s talent, and this total can get pushed into the low 50s with a normal game script. Projected total range: 51–55. Estimated over probability: 55% (about -125 fair price). Pick: Over 47.5.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Ohio State to Win
Moneyline: Ohio State at best odds with BetMGM. The Buckeyes’ defense at home is suffocating (around 7.4 allowed per home game), and they’ve been cruising with a +34.1 average home scoring margin. Add in Ohio State head coach Ryan Day’s track record in high-leverage regular-season moments, and the “just win” angle has merit. Market-implied probability is about 66.7%; my number is right around 64–66% based on matchup and home field. Pick: Ohio State moneyline.
Team Statistics: form, splits, and what really travels
Ohio State (home team, 12-0, current rank: 2)
- Scoring profile: The Buckeyes are averaging about 37.0 points per game and allowing only 7.8. That’s a remarkable overall scoring margin near +29.3 per contest.
- Home/away split: In Columbus, Ohio State’s scoring average jumps to around 41.6 while allowing roughly 7.4—an average home margin of about +34.1. That’s the kind of dominance that builds faith in the moneyline and makes laying points tempting.
- Recent form: Five straight wins, and the last outing was a 27-9 statement. That tracks with a defense that doesn’t give up big-chunk scoring drives and an offense that steadily pulls away by mid-third quarter.
- Style snapshot: The Buckeyes don’t need gaudy yardage totals to bury you; they win the possession game, play efficient situational football, and choke off drives with timely pressure and sound coverage.
Indiana (away team, 12-0, current rank: 1)
- Scoring profile: The Hoosiers are averaging about 44.3 per game while allowing 10.9—an eye-popping net margin of roughly +33.4.
- Home/away split: On the road, Indiana still hums at around 37.6 points per game and allows about 14.4. That’s a strong road offense meeting a truly elite home defense, which is exactly why the spread is tight but not tiny.
- Recent form: Five wins on the bounce, highlighted by a 56-3 rivalry win last time out. They’re efficient early, and when they get rolling, they force you to match possessions.
- Style snapshot: Indiana likes to keep the accelerator down. They’re not just about explosive moments; they string together scoring possessions and press the pace. That’s the lever that makes the +5.5 attractive—they tend to keep games stretched enough to backdoor or outright pressure a line in the final 20 minutes.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Coaching edge: Ohio State head coach Ryan Day has consistently prepared his teams for high-intensity, late-season spots. That matters in a game where one mistake can swing a cover or the total.
- Momentum check: Both sides arrive with perfect records and convincing wins in their latest outings, which means model biases are minimal—this is about matchup fit.
- Environment: December in Columbus generally favors disciplined, balanced offenses and defenses that tackle in space. Special teams, field position, and turnover margin are amplified in a tight spread.
- What tips it: Ohio State’s home defensive consistency paired with Indiana’s sustained road scoring gives us the two angles we like most—Ohio State to win, Indiana to keep it within one score, and enough possessions to push this over the posted total.
Last direct match
Ohio State handled the last meeting 38-15. That head-to-head trend leans Buckeyes, particularly with their defense dictating tempo.
Performance last 5 Matches
Both teams are 5-0 across their last five, entering this one with perfect momentum and no recent losses to dissect.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Why Indiana +5.5: The Hoosiers’ average scoring pace travels, and even facing Ohio State’s defense in Columbus, they profile as a live underdog to stay within one score. We see roughly a 57% chance the +5.5 cashes, fueled by late-game possession pressure. Why Over 47.5: The combined profiles point toward the low 50s more often than not. Ohio State’s home scoring clip (around 41.6) plus Indiana’s typical output (even at a reduced road rate) creates multiple pathways to 51–55. – Why Ohio State ML: The Buckeyes’ home defensive baseline is elite, and in a high-leverage spot, their structure and situational poise are reliable. Even with Indiana’s surge, Ohio State is the rightful favorite.
Projected game script: Buckeyes control the early field-position battle, Indiana counters with a couple of efficient scoring drives, and the fourth quarter becomes a possession game. That supports Ohio State to win, Indiana to cover +5.5, and a total sneaking past 47.5. Think something in the 30–24, 31–24 neighborhood—enough for the over, a cover for the Hoosiers, and a straight-up Buckeyes win. Market-implied win chances line up with the prices (Ohio State around 66.7% at -200; Indiana roughly 37.0% at +170, noting the vig), and our read stays in that 64–36 window for the moneyline. Three angles, one game, and plenty of value if you pick your spots.
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