Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua Odds & Prediction 12/19/2025
Jake Paul steps into the biggest gamble of his boxing career on December 19, sharing a ring with former unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua. It’s a matchup no one expected a few years ago — a social-media star turned cruiserweight vs a polished, Olympic-built heavyweight powerhouse.
Paul has improved, no doubt. Joshua is the proven commodity. And the question everyone is asking:
Can Jake Paul even make this competitive? Or does Joshua turn this into the most predictable fight of the year? Let’s break down the numbers, styles, and betting angles that actually matter.
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Jake Paul | Anthony Joshua |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 36 |
| Record | 12-1 (7 KOs) | 28-4 (25 KOs) |
| Style | Boxer-puncher | Technical heavyweight |
| Height | 6’1″ | 6’6″ |
| Reach | ~76″ | 82″ |
| Weight Class Experience | Cruiserweight | Elite Heavyweight |
| Notable Wins | Silva, Perry | Klitschko, Ruiz, Whyte |
Takeaway:
This isn’t just a size gap — it’s a career-level gap.
Paul can punch, but Joshua has been fighting men 40–50 pounds bigger than Paul for a decade. Styles here are straightforward: Paul will need chaos; AJ will thrive with discipline.
Jake Paul’s Recent Fight Results
Paul is a YouTube star turned pro boxer, making his debut in January 2020 with a first-round TKO over Ali Eson Gib. He followed that with five straight wins against retired athletes and MMA fighters before a split-decision loss to Tommy Fury in February 2023. Since then, he’s gone on a revenge streak, beating Nate Diaz, Andre August, Ryan Boulard, Mike Perry, Mike Tyson, and most recently, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
Anthony Joshua’s Recent Fight Results
Joshua, Olympic gold medalist in 2012, debuted as a pro in October 2013 with a first-round TKO of Emanuele Leo. He captured the IBF heavyweight title in 2016 and went on to unify belts with wins over Klitschko, Takam, Parker, and Povetkin. His first pro loss was to Andy Ruiz, but he reclaimed victory in the rematch. In his last eight fights, he recorded five wins and three losses, including a fifth-round knockout loss to Daniel Dubois in September 2024.
Expert Betting Outlook: Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua
Tip 1: Moneyline Odds (@ bet365 Sportsbook)
Joshua is priced like a man who should win 9 times out of 10. Paul’s number reflects a puncher’s chance — but a small one. The books will assume Joshua’s size, timing, and experience are too much. Joshua is the favorite for a reason.
Tip 2: Total Rounds — Does It Go Long?
Over 4.5 Rounds: +150
Under 4.5 Rounds: -180
Paul has heart and conditioning, but he hasn’t taken true heavyweight power. Joshua doesn’t need to be reckless — his jab alone can damage Paul. If AJ presses, this ends early. If he boxes cautiously, the under still has value.
Best Bet: Under 4.5 Rounds (-180)
Joshua can control this fight early and find a finish before the halfway point.
More Expert Take: Paths That Make Sense
Joshua by KO/TKO – -350
This is the clearest route. AJ has stopped legitimate heavyweights with single shots. If he lands clean, the fight changes instantly.
Joshua by Decision – +450
Possible only if AJ decides to coast, stay behind the jab, and treat this like a sparring session.
Paul by KO – +800
His only real path. He has power, and Joshua has been caught before — but Paul has never knocked out someone of this size or pedigree.
Paul by Decision – +1600
Extremely unlikely. He would need to win rounds cleanly against a bigger, sharper boxer.
Final Take: Anthony Joshua by TKO (Round 3)
Paul has improved technically, but this is a towering jump in competition and weight. Joshua won’t underestimate him — he’ll manage distance, land the jab early, then bring power once Paul’s rhythm cracks.
Once Joshua opens up, the size difference becomes overwhelming. Expect a clean, referee-stopped finish somewhere in the early rounds. Joshua moves through this test. Paul survives a couple of moments, but not the fight.
Best Bets Recap
- Anthony Joshua to Win: -1200
- Under 4.5 Rounds: -180
- Joshua by KO/TKO: -350
- Paul by KO (+800) — small hedge only
Unlock the secrets in our complete boxing betting guide and learn exactly how to turn your fight knowledge into winning bets, even if you’re just getting started.
Underdogs or Favorites? Back Your Pick with Free Bets!
| Trustnbet list of Best Sportsbook Bonus & Promo Codes | |
|---|---|
| BetMGM Bonus Code | bet365 Bonus Code |
| Fanatics Bonus Code | Underdog Promo Code |
| Caesars Bonus Code | Draftkings Sign Up Bonus |
| Fanduel Deposit Bonus | List of Best Sportsbook Bonus Promos |
