Miami (FL) @ Ohio State NCAA Football 12/31/2025
Let’s set the stage, college football fans. Miami is rolling into Arlington on a heater, winners of five straight and fresh off a gritty 10-3 win over Texas A&M. Ohio State, meanwhile, is coming off a 10-13 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten title game — a reminder that even elite defenses can get dragged into rock fights when the offense stalls. The number for this one has been hovering in that touchdown-plus range all week, with the total sticking low for a College Football Playoff quarterfinal.
That tracks: Ohio State’s defense has been the nation’s brick wall by the averages, while Miami’s defense has quietly turned into one of the more efficient units in FBS at limiting explosive plays and getting off the field on third down. Add the neutral-site comfort of AT&T Stadium, a clean surface, and a game plan battle between Ryan Day and a surging Miami front, and we’ve got a handicap that leans toward a controlled, methodical tempo with a premium on field position and mistake-free ball. If you like edges, you’ll like what the numbers and matchup angles say here.
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Our betting predictions for Miami FL @ Ohio State
Top Pick: Totals – Under 43.5 Points
Our primary betting pick: Under 43.5 points at -125 with BetMGM (estimated 59% probability). Both defenses are built to choke off chunk plays, and the recent form screams modest scoring. Ohio State allows single-digit points on average and smothers passing lanes; Miami grades top-10 nationally in success rate allowed and third-down defense. With Ohio State coming off a low-output outing and Miami leaning on the run behind Mark Fletcher Jr., the pace profile looks deliberate. In a playoff setting on turf, this reads like a field-position chess match rather than a track meet. My favorite angle on the board is the Under.
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Pick 2: Spread pick – Ohio State -8.5
Our secondary betting pick: Ohio State -8.5 at -105 with BetMGM (estimated 55% probability). The Buckeyes’ defense travels and tends to tilt the field position over 60 minutes. Miami’s surge is real — and that front is nasty — but if Ohio State’s receivers, including Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, get a healthier week of prep as Ryan Day suggested, the Buckeyes can separate late. The number at -8.5 is friendlier than -9.5 and worth locking in at this price.
Pick 3: Moneyline pick – Ohio State to Win
Finally, Moneyline pick: Ohio State to win at bet365 (estimated 76% probability). As a straight result play, Ohio State’s defensive averages and talent depth give them a clear edge on a neutral field. Best posted moneyline: bet365; if you want the swing-for-upside option, Miami is plus at BetMGM Sportsbook. I’m riding the Buckeyes to advance.
Team Statistics and Current Form
Ohio State (home side): There’s a reason the Buckeyes remain a public favorite. By the averages, this defense is a problem: allowing about 8.8 points per game and 217.5 total yards per game, with a top-ranked pass defense around 133.8 yards allowed per game and a run unit living near the 80s per game. That’s clamps, any way you slice it. Over the last five, Ohio State is 4-1 (80% win rate), with the lone stumble being the 10-13 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten championship — a defensive slugfest where the offense couldn’t hit explosive gains down the field.
In terms of tendencies, OSU’s defense tightens in the red area and wins on early downs, forcing longer third downs where they can unleash the pass rush and sit on routes. Special teams are steady, and tackling efficiency has largely been clean, which matters in a low-total game. Offensively, the Buckeyes have the high-ceiling skill pieces to spike — the receiver room is dangerous — but the game flow often hinges on protection and balance. If the right side of the line holds up despite the Tegra Tshabola absence, they can play from ahead and lean on field position.
Miami FL (away side): The Hurricanes arrive with a perfect 5-0 run in their last five (100% win rate), capped by a 10-3 win over Texas A&M in a trench-driven performance that checked every box for a playoff road warrior. Miami’s defense is legit by the analytics: top-10 nationally in success rate allowed (roughly mid-30s percent), negative expected points added per play allowed, about 4.5 yards per snap allowed, and a third-down defense hovering right around 29% — that’s sustainable winning football against most styles.
The pass rush is a real weapon, with Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor capable of taking over series and flipping possessions. On offense, the Hurricanes have leaned into balance and situational control; when Mark Fletcher Jr. is rolling, they’re comfortable keeping the game on schedule and shortening it. The turnover profile has improved down the stretch, and the tackling on the back end has been crisp, which helps hold explosive plays in check. Miami’s formula is built for a neutral-site grinder.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Health and readiness matter here. For Ohio State, Ryan Day indicated Carnell Tate should get a full week of work, and Jeremiah Smith says he’s good to go. The offense needs that perimeter juice. Right guard Tegra Tshabola is expected to miss time, which stresses protection against Miami’s edge rush. For Miami, Mark Fletcher Jr. looks fresh after his recent bounce-back and can set the tone on early downs. The Hurricanes’ defense has been top-tier in success rate and third-down stops, matching up well with an Ohio State offense that’s been inconsistent lately. The game’s at AT&T Stadium — fast turf, controlled climate — which favors precision routes and confident kickers. Weather’s a non-issue. Pace figures deliberately: both teams will try to avoid short fields and let their defenses do the talking.
Last direct match: Ohio State vs Miami FL
Ohio State won the last meeting 31:21 after overtime (14:0 after regulation), continuing a narrow series edge and reinforcing the Buckeyes’ knack for late-game separation on a neutral stage.
Performance over the last 5 matches
- Ohio State: 4 wins, 1 loss (last game: 10:13 loss vs Indiana).
- Miami FL: 5 wins, 0 losses (last game: 10:3 win vs Texas A&M).
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Three clear lanes, one coherent story. First, the Under 43.5 is our favorite because both defenses win early downs and squeeze explosive plays. Both offenses are comfortable punting and trusting their front seven in a playoff grinder. That profile yields a score of nearly 59% for us. Second, Ohio State -8.5 earns a lean. Miami has earned respect, but Ohio State’s average defensive performance over the season is as dominant as any unit in the country. With healthier reps for the receivers and Ryan Day scripting to protect a thin spot on the line, the Buckeyes can build a second-half gap. We peg that cover probability in the mid-50s.
Third, on the moneyline, Ohio State to win is the safest result call. The implied odds reflect it, and our number sits around 76% given the Buckeyes’ defense and the neutral-site environment. If you’re price-shopping, Bet365’s number is currently the best for the favorite, while Miami’s best swing option sits at +280 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Put it together, and the roadmap is straightforward: slow burn, defense-driven game script, Buckeyes advance, and the scoreboard stays manageable. Under first, Buckeyes by margin, second, and Buckeyes on the moneyline for the straight-up anchor.
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