Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers 12/26/2025
Two teams trending in very different directions square off in Indianapolis on Friday night (Dec. 26, 7:00 p.m. ET) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and this one has caught the attention of anyone looking at the moneyline, spread, and total. The Boston Celtics are stacking wins in the East behind elite defense and a deep rotation, while the Indiana Pacers are searching for answers as injuries continue to stretch the roster. Boston has been strong on the road, while Indiana’s home floor hasn’t been the fortress it needs to be.
Recent form matters, and the Celtics have strung together multiple wins with a top-tier defensive rating and steady scoring balance even with Jayson Tatum sidelined. Indiana, playing under head coach Rick Carlisle, is mired in a rough patch, cycling through lineups and trying to stabilize half-court offense without Tyrese Haliburton. For bettors, that profile leans toward Celtics moneyline confidence, an eye on Boston’s ability to cover a mid-range spread, and a serious look at the Under given Boston’s defense versus a Pacers offense that has cooled.
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Our betting predictions: Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers
Main Tip: Under 226.5 Total Points
1) Best bet: Under 226.5 total points (estimated 55% edge, price guide -118 at Fanatics). Why: Boston is allowing roughly 110 points per game this season, near the top of the league, while Indiana’s offense has been laboring, averaging around the low 110s with cold shooting stretches that have lasted entire halves. The Pacers are down multiple rotation pieces, and their recent second-half output has tailed off considerably. Boston’s pace control and half-court defense set the tone, and Indiana’s injuries sap creation and spacing. Tip: Under 226.5 (projected probability ~55%, fair price near -118).
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Boston Celtics
2) Moneyline: Celtics (estimated 69% win chance, price best at DraftKings). Why: Boston enters with superior form, a stout defense, and the better road profile. Jaylen Brown’s availability boosts Boston’s top-end shot creation, while the Pacers are missing key initiators. Even on the road, the Celtics’ consistency on both ends drives the edge. Tip: Boston ML (projected probability ~69%, fair price around -225).
Tip 3: Spread – Boston Celtics -6.5
3) Spread: Celtics -6.5 (estimated 54% cover chance, price guide -110 at DraftKings). Why: The Pacers have struggled to keep games within two possessions late, and Boston has shown the ability to separate after halftime adjustments. With Indiana’s turnover risk and limited rim pressure, the Celtics’ defense should generate extra possessions. Tip: Celtics -6.5 (projected probability ~54%, fair price near -110).
Team Statistics: How the Pacers and Celtics are trending
- Indiana Pacers (Eastern Conference):
- Current Eastern Conference standing: 14th. Overall record points to a tough start, and the recent run has been rough: five straight losses and multiple setbacks by wide margins. At home, Indiana’s record is below .500, and that home-court lift just hasn’t materialized consistently.
- Offensively, Indiana is averaging roughly the low 110s in points per game—among the lower outputs in the league—driven down by a drop in field-goal percentage and three-point accuracy. Defensively, the Pacers are allowing close to the high 110s per game, and the combination of injuries and lineup churn has disrupted timing and communication. It doesn’t help that late-game execution has tailed off, with second-half lulls undercutting solid first-quarter spurts. With Tyrese Haliburton out for the season, ball-handling and advantage-creation remain week-to-week challenges for Rick Carlisle’s group.
- Boston Celtics (Eastern Conference):
- Current Eastern standing: 3rd. Boston’s current form is strong—three wins in the last five, and a multi-game win streak in the larger sample—with a reliable away record that travels. The Celtics’ attack sits around the mid-110s per game, and that’s been without Jayson Tatum, thanks to Jaylen Brown’s star-level shot diet and helpful guard play from Derrick White and Payton Pritchard. The defense is where Boston separates: roughly 110 allowed per game, top-tier in opponent efficiency, and capable of switching across positions to flatten drives and contest threes.
- The result: steady control over games in the second half and fewer prolonged scoring droughts. This balance explains why Boston profiles as a favorite on the moneyline and a credible covering side even in road environments like Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Jaylen Brown is available and in rhythm, supplying primary scoring with strong late-game stretches. Jayson Tatum remains out, but Boston’s depth—Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and the frontcourt’s two-way presence—has kept the offense on schedule and the defense elite. For Indiana, head coach Rick Carlisle is working with a thin deck: Tyrese Haliburton is out for the season; T.J. McConnell, Aaron Nesmith, Ben Sheppard, and Obi Toppin are sidelined; Johnny Furphy is available; Isaiah Jackson is in concussion protocol. Indiana’s three-point variance has been extreme game to game, and their second halves have dipped sharply. External factor to note: Boston has been solid away from home, while Indiana’s home splits haven’t provided a consistent edge. Momentum, injury ledger, and defensive rating all tilt toward Boston.
Last direct match: Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics
Boston took the most recent meeting by 8 points after dominating the second half. The Celtics’ adjustments flipped the game’s rhythm and stalled Indiana’s perimeter shooting after halftime.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Pacers: 0 wins, 5 losses, with multiple games slipping away after halftime.
- Celtics: 3 wins, 2 losses, trending up with improved guard play and late-game poise.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re backing the Under as our top look because Boston’s defense has been a real separator, and Indiana’s offense is short on playmaking and shooting depth right now. The combination of a disciplined Celtics half-court scheme and the Pacers’ recent second-half cold spells points to a total that trends below the mid-220s. Our second recommendation is the Celtics moneyline: Boston has a clear personnel edge and the form to manage the road environment, supported by a win probability around 69%. Finally, Celtics -6.5 is worth a play at standard juice: Boston’s second-half adjustments and Indiana’s thin rotation suggest a realistic path to a two- to three-possession margin (guide -110).
Why these three? They align with how these teams are actually performing: Boston’s defense throttles pace and shot quality, providing value on the Under; their two-way stability makes the moneyline a strong anchor; and Indiana’s late-game slide opens a window for Boston to cover a manageable number. With Rick Carlisle still seeking a milestone win and Indiana searching for rhythm amid injuries, Boston’s steadiness is the difference. Our card: Under 226.5, Celtics ML, Celtics -6.5.
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