Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns 02/10/2026
Two Western Conference teams headed in opposite directions meet in Phoenix on Tuesday night, where betting interest is already heating up. Dallas comes in struggling away from home and sliding in recent form, while Phoenix has been sturdier on its own floor and projects as the more balanced side. The Suns have a winning home record and a positive average point margin this season, while the Mavericks’ road form and recent skid have tilted market expectations firmly toward the home team.
If you’re filtering for value, this one sets up as a classic spot: superior home side, better defensive profile, and a recent head-to-head edge. Sprinkle in the momentum contrast—Phoenix splitting its last five, Dallas winless in its last five—and the betting angles start to crystallize. Add the setting: Footprint Center, where the Suns typically lock in, and the case for the home team becomes more convincing for your moneyline or spread plays. Total bettors should also note the contrasting offensive/defensive efficiencies that could push this pace upward.
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Betting prediction for match Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
We project Phoenix as the rightful favorite with an estimated 66% win probability, which translates to roughly -195 on the moneyline. Dallas sits around a 34% chance, approximately +195. With the Mavericks’ road profile (and current slump) against Phoenix’s more consistent home baseline, the edge tilts to the Suns. If you like pricing edges, Phoenix’s average points allowed at home compared to Dallas’s average allowed overall suggests the Suns can control key stretches and get enough stops to close this out.
Our betting predictions: Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
Best Pick: Spread pick – Suns -6.0
1) Spread pick: Suns -6 at -110 with bet365 (estimated 58% cover probability). Why: Phoenix’s average point differential is positive, while Dallas runs negative overall and has underperformed away from home. The Suns’ defense typically travels at home, and Dallas’s current form suggests they may chase long pockets. Phoenix’s interior and wing length should limit easy paint touches and force tougher late-clock attempts, supporting a two- to three-possession cushion.
Not sure if bet365 fits your style? Our unbiased bet365 review breaks it all down for you.
Pick 2: Moneyline – Suns ML
2) Moneyline: Suns ML at a competitive price with BetMGM (estimated 66% win probability). Why: Phoenix pairs steadier late-game execution with home-court advantage. Dallas’s recent five-game slide, plus availability concerns, has strained its shot creation against organized defenses. The Suns’ balance and situational edge make them a reasonable anchor leg if you’re parlay-inclined or a straight ML player seeking a safer position.
Pick 3: Total – Over 227.5
3) Total: Over 227.5 at -115 with BetMGM (estimated 54% probability). Why: The combined season scoring averages point toward a track in the high 220s, with Dallas tending to play higher-variance games on the road due to defensive lapses. Phoenix can exploit those gaps, and if the Mavericks’ shooters find rhythm, this clears the mid-220s.
Team Statistics: What the numbers tell us
- Phoenix Suns (Western Conference): Mid-pack positioning in the West with a strong 17-9 home record and an overall 31-22 mark. Over 53 games, Phoenix averages about 113.6 points per game while allowing roughly 111.6—good for a positive margin of +2 per contest. That defensive steadiness is the backbone here, and it typically tightens at Footprint Center. Recent form is a touch choppy (2-3 over the last five), but the profile remains that of a quality Western squad built to win at home with defense first and opportunistic scoring.
- Dallas Mavericks (Western Conference): Sitting lower in the West at 19-33 with a tough 5-17 road record. Through 52 games, Dallas is putting up around 114.2 points per game but allowing about 117.2, a negative average margin north of -3 per outing. That gap has been louder in away games, where defensive rotations and transition coverage can waver. Recent form is a concern: 0-5 in the last five, including a high-scoring road stumble most recently. Dallas can still fill it up on the right night, but containing Phoenix’s rhythm scorers over four quarters is the bigger question.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Per recent reports, Dallas remains shorthanded: Kyrie Irving (left knee surgery), Anthony Davis (left finger sprain), Dante Exum (right knee surgery), Dereck Lively II (right foot surgery), and P.J. Washington (concussion protocol) are expected out, with a recent trade addition potentially eyeing a debut. That puts added weight on Dallas’s primary scorers to shoulder usage spikes. Phoenix’s situation is steadier at home; Isaiah Livers (shoulder) is due for re-evaluation after the break, and a recently acquired guard hadn’t yet joined when last noted. Availability can shift, so monitor statuses pre-tip. Home court at Footprint Center matters—Phoenix is significantly better there. Coaching note: Suns head coach, Ott Jordan, leans on defensive structure and timely half-court sets, which especially help late in close games.
Last direct match
Phoenix took the most recent meeting on the road, winning by roughly three possessions. That tilt affirmed the Suns’ ability to close against this opponent.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Phoenix Suns: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Dallas Mavericks: 0 wins, 5 losses
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our three-play card leans into the matchup edges we trust the most. First, Suns -6: Phoenix’s defensive identity, plus Dallas’s road dip and health concerns, strongly suggest a two- to three-possession separation. Second, Suns ML: With an estimated 66% win probability, the moneyline fits as a foundational play if you want less variance than the spread. Third, Over 227.5: The combined offensive baselines plus Dallas’s defensive profile away from home clear a path into the high 220s.
Put simply: Phoenix has the steadier home formula and the more reliable late-game engine. Dallas can score, but sustained stops—especially in crunch time—have been harder to find on the road. That’s why our card prioritizes Suns -6, supplements with Suns ML for security, and sprinkles Over 227.5 given the matchup tendencies. Manage your exposure, check final statuses close to tip, and expect the Suns to control enough of the night to cash at Footprint Center.
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