Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans 02/24/2026
Two Western Conference teams headed in different directions meet in New Orleans on Tuesday night as the Golden State Warriors visit the Pelicans at Smoothie King Center (8:00 p.m. ET). From a betting angle, you’re weighing a Warriors group pushing for postseason position against a Pelicans team that’s struggled to string together wins. Golden State has been the steadier outfit overall, while New Orleans has flashed pockets of fight but hasn’t found consistent two-way play. With injuries reshaping both rotations and recent numbers pointing to a pace-friendly environment, there’s value to sift through across the moneyline, spread, and totals.
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Our 3 betting predictions for Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans
1) Total: Over 231.5 (projection)
Our model lands around the low-230s for this matchup. The Pelicans at home have played in higher-scoring profiles, averaging roughly 117.5 points per game at Smoothie King Center while allowing about 121.0. The Warriors’ road splits (around 112.0 scored, 113.3 allowed) point to an environment where both teams can get into the teens each quarter and stretch possessions. Even without certain stars, Golden State’s ball movement and spacing travel, while New Orleans’ defensive metrics at home remain leaky. That combo tilts this toward the Over. Betting tip: Over 231.5 to 232 is playable up to a fair price of about -108 at Fanatics Sportsbook.
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2) Moneyline: Golden State Warriors
Golden State brings the more bankable floor. The Warriors are positive in overall point differential on the season (approximately +1.7 per game), and their road defense holds reasonably steady relative to their offense. New Orleans’ overall defensive numbers, particularly at home, have been a problem, and that’s tough to cover against a Warriors team that still creates clean looks and punishes mistakes. Motivation matters: Golden State is jockeying for seeding in the West, while the Pelicans’ macro trend has been uneven. Our projection makes the Warriors a mid-range favorite with a fair price at BetMGM (59%). Betting tip: Warriors ML if you can find anything better than our fair price.
3) Spread: Golden State Warriors -2.5
With the Warriors carrying the better underlying efficiency and the Pelicans’ home defense dragging, a short road number is within range. We make Golden State a bucket-ish favorite on a neutral; Smoothie King Center shifts things slightly, but not enough to flip the pick. With our moneyline edge and a totals lean north of 231, a smaller spread fits the model. Betting tip: Warriors -2 to -3 at a fair price around -105, with about a 55% chance to cash.
Team Statistics: Form snapshots and what they mean
New Orleans Pelicans — Trying to stabilize at home
The Pelicans’ broad-season numbers tell a simple story: they score at a respectable clip but concede far too often. Across 58 games, New Orleans averages roughly 114.8 points per game while allowing about 120.6, a net of nearly -6 per outing. At home, that picture improves slightly on offense (around 117.5 per game), but the defense still gives up approximately 121.0. Recently, they’ve gone 3–2 across the last five, and they’re coming off a confidence-building home result against a quality opponent, but consistency is the hurdle.
- Western Conference context: New Orleans sits near the bottom tier of the West, battling to find rhythm and healthier bodies.
- Home form: About 117.5 points scored per game, but still conceding around 121.0 at home.
- Overall trend: Offense can spike, defense remains the swing factor.
Golden State Warriors — Road-tested and trending competitive
Golden State’s season metrics are much steadier. Over 57 games, the Warriors average around 115.6 points per game and allow approximately 113.9, a positive differential backing up their above-.500 records. On the road, they score close to 112.0 and concede about 113.3 — not elite, but good enough when the offense finds its rhythm from deep, and the bench contributes. They’re 2–3 in the last five, yet their underlying efficiency remains sound compared to New Orleans.
- Western Conference context: Squarely in the 6–10 seed mix, pushing for solid positioning.
- Road splits: Around 112.0 scored and 113.3 allowed per game — manageable profile for a short favorite.
- Recent vibe: Offense is scheme-reliable even when personnel shifts.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Reports indicate Stephen Curry has been sidelined with a right knee issue, which elevates Brandin Podziemski’s role and puts added shooting pressure on Golden State’s wings. The Warriors also integrated Kristaps Porzingis, whose pick-and-pop gravity and rim protection change some half-court looks on both ends. For New Orleans, Zion Williamson’s adductor injury has been a setback, pushing more shot creation onto perimeter options like Trey Murphy. Herb Jones’ status is worth monitoring because of his on-ball defense; if limited, it further challenges New Orleans’ ability to slow Golden State’s perimeter actions. Net: Golden State’s spacing game still travels, and Porzingis adds a helpful outlet, while the Pelicans’ injury mix has complicated their defense-first identity.
Last direct match — New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors
The previous meeting went the Warriors’ way at home by a modest margin, continuing a recent head-to-head stretch where Golden State has consistently come out on top.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Pelicans: 3–2 across their last five, including a strong home showing most recently.
- Warriors: 2–3 across their last five, but underlying offensive efficiency remains solid.
- Head-to-head recent trend: The Warriors have dominated the last handful of meetings.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re lining up with three plays that match the data picture. First, Over 231.5 (projection) gets the nod because the Pelicans’ home defense has bled points, and the Warriors’ offense remains structurally sound even with lineup shuffles. Second, Warriors moneyline: they carry the better season-long differential, more reliable half-court creation, and higher overall floor — we project a 59% win chance. Third, Warriors -2.5: with a totals tilt into the low-230s and Golden State’s edge in execution, a short spread is reasonable (55% cover probability; fair price near -105).
In short, we trust Golden State’s process and New Orleans’ defensive profile to produce enough possessions and scoring chances to eclipse the number, while the Warriors’ efficiency advantage should be just enough to clear both the moneyline and a small spread.
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