Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics 12/22/2025

Two teams traveling very different roads in the Eastern Conference meet Monday night at TD Garden: the defending champs Boston Celtics, host the rebuilding Indiana Pacers. Boston’s form has been steadier, the home/road split is comfortable, and Joe Mazzulla’s crew just handled business on the road in Toronto. Indiana, banged up and searching for rhythm, is trying to stop a slide that’s pushed them toward the bottom tier in the East.

From a betting angle, market focus will center on three classic lanes: moneyline (Celtics as the heavy favorite), spread (can Boston stretch the margin at home?), and total (does this tilt skew toward Boston’s balanced offense or an Indiana pace bounce-back?). With Boston producing at a strong per-game clip and Indiana allowing one of the higher per-game totals in the league, there’s a clear path to value—if you time it right and price your edges.

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Our betting predictions for the Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics

Main Tip: Totals – Over 235.5 Points

Our best bet leans on the Over/Under: Over 230.0 Points at -120 with Caesars Sportsbook. Rationale: Boston’s scoring profile at home and Indiana’s permissive defense create a runway for points. The Pacers’ early-season pace moderated from last year’s breakneck style, but their defensive efficiency still yields clean looks, and the Celtics’ perimeter depth punishes rotations. I’m comfortable backing an Over if oddsmakers hang a number in the 232–236 range. Betting tip: Over at or below 235.5.

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Tip 2: Moneyline – Celtics to Win

2) Moneyline: Celtics to win. Model probability: 70% Boston, fair price around -235 (implied favorite). Boston’s two-way baseline at TD Garden, plus the Pacers’ thin frontcourt and shaky road form, give the Celtics a strong platform. Even with personnel questions, Mazzulla’s spacing and defensive switching typically travel—and tighten—late in games. Betting tip: Moneyline is parlay material or viable for straight plays if you price it below our fair line.

Tip 3: Spread – Celtics -7.5

3) Spread: Celtics against the -7.5 spread. Model probability: 57% ATS cover at -8, fair price equivalent around -130 at bet365. The angle: Indiana’s defense on the road hasn’t consistently contained multiple creators, and Boston has three or four ball-handlers who can beat the first closeout. The Celtics’ second-unit shooting can swing the middle eight minutes of each half. Betting tip: Lay it with Boston if you can grab -7.5.

Team Statistics: How Boston’s balance stacks up vs. Indiana’s volatility

• Boston Celtics (Eastern Conference): The champs look like themselves more often than not. Over 28 games, they’re averaging about 116.5 points per game while allowing roughly 110.5, a healthy differential of nearly +6 points nightly. The TD Garden edge is real: 9-5 at home, 8-6 away, and trending up after a comfortable win in Toronto. In the East picture, Boston sits firmly in the top tier and is tracking like a contender for the conference’s top two seeds. Offensively, the spacing is elite even without every star available, and they convert enough looks beyond the arc to build separation in the second and third quarters. Defensively, they force one-on-one answers and live with contested jumpers, which is exactly how a deep wing room should operate.

• Indiana Pacers (Eastern Conference): It’s been rough sledding. Across the same 28 games, Indiana averages about 110.2 points per game and concedes around 118.5—a sizable negative differential. The road record tells the story: 1-12 away, with just 5-10 at home, a signal of a group still searching for continuity. They’ve cooled the breakneck pace that made last season so entertaining, and the offense hasn’t fully replaced those easy transition touches. In the East, they’ve slipped into the lower tier and are trying to stabilize against a schedule that isn’t giving many breathers. The bright spots come in spurts—bench energy, some secondary creation—but the consistency hasn’t been there, especially outside of Indiana.

Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors

Boston’s coach Joe Mazzulla has leaned on versatility and next-man-up principles as injuries pop up. Kristaps Porzingis remains sidelined, and Jrue Holiday’s shoulder status has been monitored, but Boston’s wings and guards are carrying the load with efficient shot profiles and secure ball movement. On the Indiana side, health has hit hard: Tyrese Haliburton is out for the season, Aaron Nesmith remains out, and Obi Toppin’s status has fluctuated. The Pacers’ frontcourt injuries have also limited rim protection and rebounding continuity. Recent head-to-heads offered swings in momentum, but Boston’s home floor and defensive ceiling are major anchors here. If the Pacers get a hot shooting night from role players and push tempo, they can make this interesting; otherwise, Boston’s discipline and depth should tell.

Last direct match

Indiana took the most recent meeting on the road by a nine-point margin, a reminder that Boston can’t coast—even at TD Garden.

Performance last 5 Matches

Boston is 3-2 over its last five, while Indiana is 1-4 in that same window.

Team Form Check: Celtics’ stability vs. Pacers’ search for answers

Boston’s profile is built on reliable offense and late-game composure. The roughly 116.5 points per night come from layered actions—five-out spacing, quick-hitting ball screens, and second-side cuts—while allowing around 110.5 points keeps the pressure on opponents to shoot above expectation. Their home splits underscore why the Garden remains tough: even when the jumper wobbles, they stack stops. With Mazzulla at the helm, the Celtics flow into early offense but rarely get sped up into bad shots. That’s why their fourth quarters often feel methodical rather than frantic.

Indiana’s reset has been complicated by injuries and rhythm issues. Averaging around 110.2 points while conceding 118.5 is a tough math problem, especially on the road. Without Haliburton’s orchestration, possessions can stall, and the second unit hasn’t consistently tilted minutes in their favor. There’s still athleticism and length to bother opponents for bursts; the challenge is converting those bursts into full quarters. If the Pacers are going to flip this matchup, it likely comes via quicker pace pockets, turnovers-to-transition, and a career night from a wing or stretch big.

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TrustnBet Final Thoughts

We’re aligned on a three-pronged approach: Over (at the right number), Celtics moneyline, and Celtics against the spread. The “why” stacks cleanly. Boston’s per-game scoring baseline and late-game defense travel, while TD Garden amplifies their role players. Indiana’s road profile and current injury picture make it hard to forecast four consistent quarters. Our projection makes Boston a roughly 70% moneyline side, leans Over at about a 54% clip (fair price -120 if the total settles in the low 230s), and has a Celtics cover near 57% at -8 (fair price -130). In short: ride Boston’s stability and depth, and tap the Over if the number stays reasonable. Keep an eye on late injury updates, but unless there’s a surprise, the edges point green.

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