Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks 02/10/2026
Madison Square Garden is set to buzz on Tuesday night as the New York Knicks welcome the Indiana Pacers at 7:30 p.m. ET. From a betting perspective, this one lines up as a classic situational spot: the Knicks have been rolling at home and trending upward in the Eastern Conference pecking order, while the Pacers are trying to claw their way out of a rough stretch on the road. New York took the most recent head-to-head by a single point on the road, and that razor-thin margin keeps this rivalry interesting. But the broader form trends and the splits tell a different story. In a vacuum, this is the kind of matchup where the Garden’s energy, Tom Thibodeau’s game-planning, and New York’s defensive edges tend to show up late.
If you’re building your tickets, the three core markets — moneyline, spread, and over/under — are all in play. My model puts the Knicks as clear favorites with a stronger probability than the market typically gives in an average regular-season spot. We’ll get into exact numbers below, along with a lean on the total based on pace and per-game scoring trends.
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Betting prediction for match Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks
Let’s put numbers to it. Based on current form, home/away splits, and per-game scoring profiles, I’ve got New York at a 78% win chance, which translates to roughly -355 on the moneyline. Indiana sits at around 22%. The Knicks’ home scoring profile and the Pacers’ road defense tilt this in New York’s favor, and the pace projects to be lively but controlled by Thibodeau’s rotations.
Coach: New York Knicks’ head coach Tom Thibodeau continues to lean into physicality, second-chance opportunities, and half-court execution at the Garden. For Indiana, Rick Carlisle’s offense typically hums when his lead creators are healthy, but availability and consistency on the road have been pain points.
Our betting predictions: Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks
Best Bet: Spread – Knicks -9.5
1) Spread: Knicks -9.5 (best price -110 at Fanatics Sportsbook). Why: New York’s home per-game scoring margin is strong, and the Pacers’ road defense has been vulnerable. The Knicks average about 119.4 points per game at home while allowing roughly 109.1, a double-digit cushion driven by rebounding and late-game composure. Indiana scores about 106.9 per game on the road and allows roughly 120.0, which sets a clear pathway for New York to clear a mid-to-high single-digit number. Tip: Knicks to cover.
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Pick 2: Moneyline – Knicks ML
2) Moneyline: Knicks ML (fair value at DtaftKings Sportsbook). Why: With New York winning four of its last five and the Pacers going 1–4 over that same window, the form and the Garden boost stack up. Even if this rivalry tightens, the win probability leans heavily toward the Knicks. Tip: Knicks to win outright.
Pick 3: Total – Under 226.5
3) Total: Under 226.5 (best price -110 at DraftKings). Why: The Knicks’ home defense trends down opponents’ per-game output in this building, and their fourth-quarter tempo control often suppresses late scoring bursts. Indiana’s road offense is several points per game lower than at home, and if New York gets this to a grind in the half-court, the ceiling for combined points tightens. Tip: Under.
Team Statistics: Form profiles and scoring tempo
New York Knicks (Eastern Conference context)
- Record and trend: 33–19 overall, 4–1 in the last five, coming off an emphatic road win in Boston. At Madison Square Garden, New York has been excellent, stacking wins and smothering opponents late.
- Per-game scoring: Across 52 games, the Knicks average about 117.5 points per game while allowing roughly 112.3. At home, that climbs to around 119.4 points per game scored and just 109.1 allowed — a meaningful home bump that speaks to crowd energy and defensive rebounding under Tom Thibodeau.
- Conference note: In the Eastern Conference race, the Knicks are solidly in that top-tier mix — think top-six territory — positioning themselves well as the season tilts toward the stretch run.
Indiana Pacers (Eastern Conference context)
- Record and trend: 13–39 overall, 1–4 across the last five, with the most recent outing a road loss in Toronto. Road form has been the glaring issue.
- Per-game scoring: They’re averaging about 110.7 points per game and allowing roughly 118.4. The road split is stark — around 106.9 points per game scored away from home versus 120.0 allowed — and that gap is the core handicap against a Knicks group that defends better at home.
- Conference note: In the East, Indiana sits near the bottom tier and needs a jolt both in health and execution to tighten games away from Indianapolis.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Recent reports around availability matter here. For New York, key wings like Josh Hart and OG Anunoby have hit the injury report at times, but Tom Thibodeau’s teams typically plug-and-play with defense-first wings and steady guard creation. For Indiana, Rick Carlisle’s rotation clarity has been challenged by injuries; if a primary creator like Tyrese Haliburton is limited or sits, Indiana’s per-game scoring usually dips and turnover risk climbs. There’s also chatter about new frontcourt pieces working through minor injuries, which could slow chemistry if they’re not at full throttle. Bottom line: monitor the official pregame statuses, but the Knicks’ home identity and depth profiles are more stable, while the Pacers’ road offense is highly sensitive to who’s active at the point of attack.
Last direct match: New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers
New York edged Indiana on the road by a single point in the most recent head-to-head — a reminder that this rivalry can tighten late, even when form trends suggest distance.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Knicks: 4–1
- Pacers: 1–4
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re leaning into three angles built on venue, per-game splits, and late-game control. First, Knicks -9.5 (projected -110) is our favorite play, because New York’s combination of home scoring lift and defensive suppression aligns with Indiana’s road scoring dip. Second, the Knicks’ moneyline matches our 78% win projection and fits well as a parlay anchor or a straight play if you’re comfortable laying significant juice. Third, we like the under 226.5: the Knicks’ ability to slow tempo and protect the defensive glass at the Garden tends to cap the total, especially if the Pacers’ guard availability is limited.
Why these three? The numbers travel. New York’s per-game home edges and defensive identity have been consistent, and Indiana’s away form and points allowed per game are the exact pressure points you want to target in spread and total markets. Stack those with a strong moneyline probability, and you’ve got a logical, data-backed ticket for Tuesday night at the Garden.
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