Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans 11/14/2025
Two West teams headed in very different directions meet at Smoothie King Center on Friday, 11/14/2025 (8:00 p.m. local), and the betting lens is sharpest on the contrast in form. Los Angeles is rolling on the road, while New Orleans is still searching for rhythm. If you’ve been tailing the Lakers on the moneyline or riding their road performances against the number, you’ve had reasons to smile. The Pelicans, meanwhile, have been scrapping through injuries and short-handed nights, and their recent offensive pace has trailed the league norm.
For bettors, that sets up a classic decision tree: trust the steadier side with the veteran closing punch (LeBron and AD), or lean into a contrarian spot with a home underdog trying to grind this into a slower, physical game. Markets will gravitate to the Lakers, but the second leg of a back-to-back adds a wrinkle that gives totals players plenty to consider, especially with the Pelicans’ offense running cooler than the league average.
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Our betting predictions for the match Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Main Tip: Spread pick – Lakers -4.5
Spread pick: Lakers -4.5 at -115 with FanDuel Sportsbook (estimated 58% cover probability). Los Angeles has banked wins with a balanced inside-out approach and is bringing strong road form. The mismatch at the five—AD’s two-way impact versus a thin Pelicans front—tilts shot quality at the rim and on second-chance opportunities. Even on a back-to-back, the Lakers’ pace control late and half-court efficiency give them a slight edge to win by two possessions.
Want the full breakdown? Read our FanDuel Sportsbook review and see if it’s the right fit for your betting style.
Tip 2: Moneyline – Los Angeles Lakers
Moneyline: Lakers at best odds with BetMGM Sportsbook (estimated 64% win probability). Our projection leans Lakers because of superior late-game shot creation and a deeper track record this month. New Orleans’ margin for error shrinks without consistent secondary scoring. If you’re wary of the back-to-back, reduce the stake, but the ML still profiles as the safest angle of the three.
Tip 3: Game Total – Under 229.5 Points
Total: Under 229.5 at -108 with BetMGM Sportsbook (estimated 55% probability). The Pelicans’ recent offensive pace and shot-making have been below par, while the Lakers can toggle into half-court defense mode late. If the Pelicans lean on longer possessions to manage rotation strain, the possession count drops. That nudges this toward the Under unless the free-throw volume spikes.
Team Statistics
- Division snapshot:
- Los Angeles Lakers: 1st in Pacific Division after 11 games, showing strong road form (5-1 away).
- New Orleans Pelicans: 5th in Southwest Division after 10 games, still working through injuries, 1-2 at home.
- Efficiency profile (season to date):
- Lakers scoring: about 118.1 points per game; allowed about 116.5 points per game; differential roughly +1.6 per game.
- Pelicans scoring: about 108.0 points per game; allowed about 121.3 points per game; differential roughly -13.3 per game.
- Recent Pelicans 10-game note from form guide: around 104.7 points per game vs opponents at 117.6 points per game during that stretch, a rough patch that aligns with their rotation challenges.
- Situational edges:
- Lakers away form: 5 wins in 6 away dates suggest travel resilience.
- Pelicans at home: still trying to establish baseline consistency (1-2).
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Lakers injuries and rotation notes: Rui Hachimura (ankle) and Cam Reddish (peroneal) have been listed out in recent updates. Christian Wood’s knee recovery has limited the big-man rotation, and Jarred Vanderbilt is still working his way back. Rookie Jalen Hood-Schifino has been dealing with a groin issue. The headliner, though, remains the AD–LeBron tandem—available and carrying the load when required. Anthony Davis has delivered elite two-way minutes even through knocks, and LeBron’s late-game orchestration has swung tight finishes.
- Pelicans injuries (high impact): Reports suggest Zion Williamson has been unavailable, CJ McCollum has been dealing with a right adductor strain, and Jose Alvarado (hamstring) has been penciled in for reevaluation timetables. Jordan Hawkins and Herb Jones have been ramping through non-contact phases. The net effect: New Orleans has often leaned on Brandon Ingram to carry usage and shot creation, with the supporting cast rotating. When the Pelicans are short on handlers and shooters, their spacing tightens, and the offense dips toward half-court isolation.
- Momentum and style:
- Lakers: Multiple wins recently, powered by AD’s interior dominance and LeBron’s clutch shotmaking. Even when Los Angeles starts slow, they’ve owned the fourth-quarter tempo in several games, with defensive stops feeding transition and early-clock looks.
- Pelicans: A tough opening stretch, with limited continuity and scoring droughts popping up at inopportune times. Ingram remains their steadying scorer, but without consistent secondary options, opponents can load up on his touches.
- Back-to-back variable: The Lakers are on the second night of a back-to-back, which can shave a few percentage points off shooting legs. However, their road defense and veteran game management mitigate some of that fatigue risk. If rotations tighten late, expect Los Angeles to lean on half-court actions through AD with LeBron conducting from the slot.
Last direct match: New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Lakers
The most recent meeting went to the Lakers by a margin of 16 points at their place—another data point in a head-to-head run that’s been one-way traffic lately. The takeaway: when AD controls the paint touches and rim protection, New Orleans’ margin tends to slip late.
Head-to-Head trend (last five meetings)
- Lakers 5 wins, Pelicans 0 wins.
- The common thread is L.A.’s defensive execution on Ingram’s primary creation windows and the Lakers’ ability to manufacture late scoring without needing a blistering shooting night.
Performance last 5 matches
- Pelicans: 2 wins, 3 losses.
- Lakers: 3 wins, 2 losses.
- This recent snapshot mirrors the broader early-season narrative: Los Angeles steadier, New Orleans volatile.
Last match results: New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Lakers
- Pelicans: fell at home by 8 points to Portland. The offense couldn’t quite stay on schedule late, and the margin slipped in the final minutes.
- Lakers: dropped a road game to Oklahoma City by 29 points. That outing was an outlier in shot quality and transition defense; it also sets up some motivational bounce-back potential for the veteran core.
New Orleans Pelicans: Current form, averages, and West context
New Orleans’ 2-8 record across 10 games speaks to the rotation churn. At around 108.0 points per game, they’ve been below league average, and at roughly 121.3 allowed, opponents have generated comfortable looks. The home sample (1-2) is small but underscores their search for a defensive identity at Smoothie King Center.
Brandon Ingram has been the main engine, and when he’s rolling, New Orleans can hang with anyone for stretches. The trouble has come in the third and late fourth quarters, where ball security and shot creation beyond Ingram haven’t been consistent. If the Pelicans are going to flip this script, it starts by earning easier points—turning stops into run-outs, getting downhill into the bonus, and smoothing their half-court spacing with cutters and second-side actions. If they do that, an Under can still cash while they keep this inside two possessions; if not, the Lakers’ finishing kick looms.
Los Angeles Lakers: Current form, averages, and West context
The Lakers are in the West’s top tier on merit. They’re averaging about 118.1 points per game and allowing around 116.5, with a positive differential that mirrors their 8-3 start and a notable 5-1 away record. The on-court identity is clear: AD anchors rim protection and punishes switches; LeBron closes and manipulates pace; the supporting cast fills lanes and attacks pockets in drop coverage.
Even without several depth pieces, Los Angeles has found functionality by keeping the ball moving and trusting AD touches early to stabilize shot selection. When the Lakers slow things down late, they’re comfortable winning on execution rather than just pace. That’s exactly the kind of profile that translates on the road.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re siding with the steadier team and the clearer late-game blueprint. Our three tips: Lakers -4.5 at -110, Lakers moneyline, and Under 229.5 at -108. The spread is our favorite because Los Angeles’ road form and interior edge should create separation even with the back-to-back factor. The moneyline is the safest angle if you want to trim risk, leaning on the Lakers’ closing talent to navigate a tight fourth quarter. And the Under gets a nod thanks to New Orleans’ recent offensive pace and the likelihood of the Lakers shifting into half-court defense late. Put together, these positions reflect the same story: L.A. has the matchup advantages where it matters most, while New Orleans needs a rare clean bill and a hot shooting night to flip the script.
