Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns 02/26/2026
Two Western Conference bluebloods square off in downtown Phoenix on Thursday night as the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Suns at Footprint Center (Thursday, February 26, 2026, 9:00 PM ET). Both teams are coming off skids, and both badly need a response, which makes this one especially interesting for bettors. Phoenix is shorthanded and grinding through a rough post–All-Star shooting slump, while L.A. has cooled after a nice run, including a razor-thin stumble last time out.
The market has tilted toward the Lakers on the moneyline given the Suns’ absences, but there’s still value to be found if you parse pace, recent efficiency, and likely rotations. Below, we break down our three favorite bets—rotating our top selection this time to the total—then dive into current form, conference context, and the key player availability shaping this matchup.
Who’s the real NBA title favorite this season? Check the latest NBA Futures odds before placing your championship picks.
Our 3 betting predictions for Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns
1) Best Bet: Under 219.5 points (-120)
With Phoenix’s offense missing multiple creators and shot-makers and the Suns shooting just 36% from the field since the break, tempo and efficiency lean under-friendly. Over the last four games, Phoenix has been stuck in a half-court grind, while the Lakers’ recent three-game sample sits around 107.7 points per outing—below their better patches this winter. If the Suns keep leaning on secondary handlers and spacing threats over star isolation, possessions should be longer and late-clock jumpers more common. Combine that with the Lakers’ tendency to operate methodically on the road when protecting a lead, and you get a profile that lines up with a lower total. Our modeled probability for the Under is approximately 56% at the listed price of -120 at BetMGM, which is a modest edge relative to a coin flip.
Want extra protection on your first bet? Use the BetMGM Bonus Code to unlock a new-user bonus today.
2) Against the Spread: Los Angeles Lakers -5.0 (-115)
L.A. has the clearest path to reliable shot creation in this matchup, and the Suns’ injuries compress their rotation and floor-spacing options. Even with swingman production from guys like Grayson Allen, Phoenix has struggled to sustain a consistent offensive rhythm. The Lakers have been solid on the road this season, and their late-game execution should be better than what we saw in their most recent outing. If Rui Hachimura plays, L.A.’s bench offense and rebounding balance improve; if he doesn’t, the starting group still has the edge against a patchwork Suns unit. We project around a 54% cover chance at -115 with BetMGM with the expectation that L.A. wins by two or more possessions. Tip: Lakers -5.0.
3) Moneyline: Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers’ moneyline sits in favorite territory for good reason: Phoenix remains without several key names and has seen its offensive ceiling shrink in recent weeks. Conversely, L.A. has the superior lead initiators and late-clock solutions. While there’s always variance in a one-game sample, especially if the Suns get hot from three, the most likely path is a calculated Lakers performance that leans on defensive pressure and disciplined half-court sets. We estimate L.A.’s win probability at roughly 64%—lining up with a best price at FanDuel—while Phoenix’s home side sits closer to 38% (+165 range). Tip: Lakers ML.
Team Statistics and Current Form
Phoenix Suns: Trying to find rhythm amid absences
- Form snapshot: 1 win in the last 5, trending downward since the break with cold shooting stretches.
- Recent scoring profile: Phoenix has averaged around 111.3 points over the last 10, with 110.2 allowed, but that margin has tightened as shot quality dropped in recent games.
- Home vs. road: Solid at home overall this season (19–12), typically feeding off the crowd and role-player shooting, but current availability complicates that edge.
- Western Conference outlook: Hovering around the 6–8 range, jockeying in a tight cluster for playoff positioning; every conference game has tie-breaker and seeding stakes.
- Momentum marker: Post–All-Star efficiency dip (shooting near 36% over a small recent sample) has put extra pressure on defense and turnover management.
Bottom line for Phoenix: The Suns’ ceiling remains tied to perimeter shot-making and ball security. If they shorten the game, squeeze possessions, and get league-average three-point variance, they can keep this within a couple of possessions. But the offensive “floor” is lower than usual, given the current rotation.
Los Angeles Lakers: Better two-way stability on the road
- Form snapshot: 2 wins in the last 5, with a narrow late-game stumble most recently; still, 6 wins in the last 10 overall prior to that skid suggests underlying resilience.
- Recent scoring profile: Around 107.7 points per game over the last three—below their mid-season peaks—indicating a small cooling period.
- Home vs. road: Strong both home (19–12) and away (18–11), a good sign for translating style across venues.
- Western Conference outlook: Sitting around sixth, just ahead of Phoenix; the separation is slim, so this head-to-head matters for seeding and potential tie-breakers.
- Key concern: If Hachimura sits, bench scoring and lineup versatility take a hit, but the starting group still rates better than Phoenix’s current available unit.
Bottom line for Los Angeles: The Lakers have more dependable shot creation and a more consistent closing package. If they value possessions and use their size to limit second chances, they’re positioned to control the pace and the scoreboard.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Phoenix’s injury list looms large: Devin Booker (hip), Dillon Brooks (hand), Jordan Goodwin (calf), Haywood Highsmith (knee management), and Cole Anthony (not with the team) have been listed out, shaping a thinner ball-handling and shot-creation mix. That shifts a bigger burden to Jalen Green, Collin Gillespie, and marksman Grayson Allen—who’s had a productive February stretch—to prop up the offense. For the Lakers, Jaxson Hayes is probable (ankle), while Rui Hachimura is questionable (illness); Hachimura’s floor-spacing and mid-post touch (around 11.7 points on efficient splits) add valuable balance when available. The Suns’ recent 36% shooting since the break underscores why the Under and Lakers angles carry weight. Travel is minimal for L.A., and with both teams aware of seeding pressure, expect a playoff-style approach: slower tempo, half-court execution, and defense-first adjustments.
Last direct match: Phoenix Suns vs Los Angeles Lakers
Phoenix took the most recent head-to-head at home, controlling pace and winning comfortably by double digits. L.A. will be motivated to flip the script in this rematch.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Phoenix Suns: 1–4
- Los Angeles Lakers: 2–3
Both sides enter needing a course correction, but Phoenix’s rotation losses have made improvement tougher to engineer on the fly.
Get ahead of the market with NBA expert picks, breaking down the best value plays for tonight’s games.
TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re prioritizing game context over brand names. Phoenix’s offensive form and personnel losses point us toward a lower total, so our top recommendation is Under 219.5 at -120. The Lakers’ two-way stability and late-game creators justify laying the number at -115 for -5.0, especially if they control the glass and keep Phoenix’s role players out of rhythm. And while the price isn’t cheap, the moneyline fairly reflects a solid advantage in shot creation, rotation depth (even if Hachimura sits), and current momentum. Our modeled estimates: roughly 56% for the Under, 54% for Lakers -5.0, and 64% for Lakers ML—each supported by recent efficiency trends, injury reports, and road-versus-home consistency. In short: trust the Under in a tighter-tempo game, back L.A. to win by two or more possessions, and use the moneyline as a parlay anchor or straight if you prefer the higher probability angle.
| Curious for more Betting Predictions? | |
|---|---|
| 🏟️ Expert betting predictions all Sports | 🚀 Parlay bet picks |
| 🏈 NFL expert picks | 🏀 NBA expert picks |
| 🏒 NHL picks | ⚽ Soccer predictions |
| 🏁 Nascar predictions | 🎾 Tennis expert predictions |
| 🥊 UFC predictions |
