Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors 02/09/2026
All right, Bay Area—Monday night hoops under the lights at Chase Center always has a little extra juice, and this one comes with some betting angles worth circling. Golden State is sitting above .500 and holding serve at home, while Memphis has been scrapping through a tricky road stretch. The Warriors have handled this matchup in recent meetings and play their sharpest ball in San Francisco. Memphis, meanwhile, has flashed resilience but still leans on role players to carry scoring stretches with its star guard on the shelf.
If you’re looking at the board, you’re weighing the Warriors’ home edge and coaching continuity under Steve Kerr against a Grizzlies group that’s young, hungry, and occasionally volatile in a good way. Expect pace, perimeter volume, and some late-game situational chess. For bettors, that brings the moneyline, spread, and especially the over/under into play, with trends pointing toward a night where shot-making could be the headline act.
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Betting prediction for match Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
Our model leans toward Golden State at home, but the real question is margin and tempo. We estimate the Warriors at 62% to win versus Memphis at 38%. Memphis’s road profile suggests vulnerability on the defensive end, while Golden State’s home scoring rates are a tick higher than their road splits. That’s the foundation for the primary angles below.
Our betting predictions: Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
Main Tip: Game Totals – Over 228.5
1) Over/Under: Over 228.5 (value: -118 at BetMGM). Why: The Warriors at home average about 119.3 points per game at Chase Center, and Memphis on the road is around 113.3 points per game—with the Grizzlies also allowing roughly 118.2 away. That combination points to a game script where pace and shot volume support the over. Our projection clears the high-220s threshold enough to show value. Tip: Over 228.5 to Over 230 is playable territory, with the over cashing about 54% in our simulations.
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Tip 2: Spread – Warriors -4.5
2) Spread: Warriors -4.5 (best price: -110 at DraftKings). Why: Golden State’s home scoring bump under Steve Kerr’s rotations has been consistent, and they’ve won four of the last five head-to-heads. Memphis tends to allow more away, and the Warriors’ balance—especially in the third quarter historically—tilts the margin their way. We show roughly a 55% cover probability, with a lean up to -5.5.
Tip 3: Moneyline – Warriors ML
3) Moneyline: Warriors ML (Fair odds with DraftKings). Why: With the Warriors’ home form and better late-game execution, the moneyline is a steady anchor play. Memphis’s volatility is real, but so are Golden State’s half-court actions and closing-time experience. If you’re parlay-building or seeking safer exposure, this is the cleanest leg.
Team Statistics
Golden State Warriors (current form snapshot)
- Record: 28-25 overall. Home: 17-9. Road: 11-16.
- Points Per Game: About 115.6 per game; Points Allowed: about 113.5 per game.
- Home splits: Around 119.3 points per game at Chase Center; allowing about 113.6.
- Recent form: 2 wins, 3 losses in the last five, coming off a road setback at the Lakers in a two-possession-type game.
- West context: In the Western Conference mix above .500, with a stronger home identity and veteran late-game composure.
- Read: At home, Golden State tends to spike in both efficiency and rhythm. With Steve Kerr managing rotations and tempo, they’re more consistent in the third quarter and situational defense, especially against inexperienced backcourts.
Memphis Grizzlies (current form snapshot)
- Record: 20-31 overall. Home: 11-15. Road: 9-16.
- Points Per Game: About 115.3 per game; Points Allowed: roughly 117.5 per game.
- Road splits: Around 113.3 points per game, allowing about 118.2.
- Recent form: 2 wins, 3 losses in the last five; last game was a road stumble in Portland.
- West context: In the bottom half of the Western Conference standings, but riding emerging contributors who can get hot in spurts.
- Read: Memphis relies on energy lineups and perimeter shot creation by committee. When role players shoot it well, they can hang with most teams; when they cool, defensive leaks on the road make them vulnerable to runs.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Availability watch matters: Golden State’s outlook is always impacted by their superstar guard’s status; monitor day-of updates. Steve Kerr’s late-game sets and substitution patterns typically stabilize them at home.
- Memphis continues to navigate life without its lead guard; Ty Jerome’s return has offered a secondary ball-handling lift, and wings like Vince Williams Jr. have stepped into larger usage pockets.
- The road grind is real: Memphis is in the midst of a long Western swing, which can affect legs and shot variance.
- Head-to-head tilt: Golden State has taken four of the last five meetings, often by controlling third-quarter pace and tempo.
- Betting angle: Given Memphis’s away defensive profile and the Warriors’ home scoring, the over and a modest Golden State margin grade out as the sharper plays.
Last direct match
Golden State won the last meeting at Chase Center by a comfortable double-digit margin, reinforcing their home-court edge in this rivalry.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Warriors: 2-3
- Grizzlies: 2-3
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
Our card leans toward game flow and venue. First, the Over 228.5 is the headline angle because the Warriors’ home scoring rate and Memphis’s away defense create a favorable math matchup; our projection clears the high-220s with room to spare. Second, Warriors -4.5 aligns with Golden State’s home efficiency bump and their established head-to-head edge, giving us a slight but real margin advantage. Third, the Warriors’ moneyline at an estimated fair price of -160 is the safer, lower-variance anchor for parlays or conservative singles. We arrive here by blending pace indicators, home/road scoring splits, recent form, and coaching edges—particularly Steve Kerr’s tactical stability at Chase Center—against Memphis’s travel fatigue and defensive profile. If you want just one angle, take the Over; if you want two, add Warriors -4.5; and if you’re building a conservative ticket, anchor with Warriors ML.
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