Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors 12/12/2025
It’s a Friday night tilt at Chase Center, and this one has a little extra juice for bettors. Minnesota (15-9) rolls into San Francisco, sitting in the Western Conference playoff mix, while Golden State (13-12) is trying to build momentum behind a strong home slate. The Wolves have banked four wins in their last five and just narrowly came up short at home against Phoenix, while the Warriors smoked Chicago on the road and have gone 7-3 in their own building.
From a numbers perspective, Minnesota’s offense has been humming at about 119.6 points per game, while Golden State is steady around 113.5 points per game with a positive home profile. My model has this close but gives a slight edge to the visitors: Minnesota 53% (fair ML price at bet365) versus Golden State 47%. With both teams trending up and a Chase Center crowd ready to rock, we’ve got an intriguing, bettable matchup on the board.
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Our betting predictions: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors
Main Tip: Totals pick – Over 230.0 Points
1) Totals pick: Over 230.0 at -115 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Combining current scoring profiles, the pace and matchup variables point modestly to the Over. Minnesota’s offense is averaging roughly 119.6 points per game, and Golden State checks in around 113.5, a blended expectation that lands in the low 230s before late-game free throws and variance. The Warriors’ home floor typically juices their shot-making, and the Wolves’ wings generate downhill pressure that forces rotations and fouls. Even with some fatigue considerations, the offensive talent—headline names included—tilts this toward more scoring than the market often expects in December. Probability: 54% to cash, fair price about -115 at BetMGM.
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Tip 2: Moneyline – Minnesota Timberwolves
Projection and rationale: Minnesota’s profile travels well. They’ve been the steadier side over the last two weeks and carry a stronger net points per game differential (about +4.9) than Golden State (+1.8). The Wolves’ half-court defense can flatten actions and force late-clock attempts, and if their secondary creators hit enough catch-and-shoot looks, they’re positioned to steal key possessions. While the Warriors are formidable at home, Minnesota’s balance and closing-lineup versatility nudge this their way. Probability and fair odds: 53%. Betting tip: Minnesota on the moneyline, fair price at bet365.
Tip 3: Spread pick – Minnesota -2.5
Projection and rationale: In tight spreads, I lean with the side boasting the more consistent late-game shot quality and rim protection. Minnesota grades slightly better there, and the Warriors have had stretches of turnover volatility that can swing a coin-flip cover. If this lands near a short number, the Wolves’ combination of shot creation and interior presence makes them the higher-percentage play to cover. Probability and fair odds: 52% to cover, fair price about -108 at bet365. Betting tip: Minnesota against the spread if laying a small number.
Team Statistics
Golden State Warriors — Home Comfort, Seeking Consistency
- Record and placement: In the Western Conference picture, Golden State is battling in the middle tier at 13-12, with a strong 7-3 mark at home and 7-5 away form noted this season. They’re very much in the thick of the play-in chase under head coach Steve Kerr.
- Current form and last result: Golden State is 3-2 over the last five, including a statement road win in Chicago that showcased a sharper defensive effort and better second-unit rhythm.
- Scoring profile: The Warriors are averaging about 113.5 points per game while allowing roughly 111.7, a slight positive margin that expands at Chase Center, where their spacing and off-ball movement tend to pop. That scoring balance keeps them competitive even on nights when the threes aren’t splashing early.
- Western Conference context: The Dubs’ path is clear—stack home wins and stabilize end-of-quarter defense. They’re within striking distance of a stronger seed if they convert their home-court edge into mini streaks.
Minnesota Timberwolves — Two-Way Edge and Road-Ready
- Record and placement: Minnesota has put itself near the West’s upper-middle tier at 15-9, including a 7-3 home mark and 7-5 away ledger. They’ve been the hotter team recently, going 4-1 in their last five.
- Current form and last result: The Wolves just fell short at home to Phoenix in a tight finish, but their overall form remains solid with improved shot selection late and better bench minutes.
- Scoring profile: Minnesota is around 119.6 points per game on offense and allows about 114.8, good for a healthy positive margin per night. That balance is why they travel as a live threat: the defense short-circuits runs, and their creators can trade buckets with anyone.
- Western Conference context: As the West stratifies, Minnesota looks like a team capable of climbing into a secure playoff slot, especially if they keep banking road results like these.
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
Golden State’s availability looks favorable, with core contributors expected to go, and Moses Moody recently tagged as probable. Minnesota’s sheet has been relatively clean, with depth pieces shifting through G League assignments and Joe Ingles noted on the shelf earlier. Scheduling-wise, Golden State has faced pockets of “three in four nights,” which can trim legs late. Historically, recent meetings have swung both ways, but Wolves’ perimeter power and interior presence pose matchup issues on the glass. If the Warriors’ shooters heat up early, the home crowd can tilt the momentum, yet Minnesota’s two-way stretch has traveled. In short: health leaning positive, minor fatigue caveats, and a style clash that leans toward efficient offense on both sides.
Last direct match
Minnesota took the most recent meeting at home by roughly double digits, leveraging a fourth-quarter surge to close it out.
Performance last 5 Matches
- Golden State Warriors: 3 wins, 2 losses, trending upward after a convincing road performance.
- Minnesota Timberwolves: 4 wins, 1 loss, steady and balanced with road resilience.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re siding with game flow and recent form. The Over lands as our lead play because both teams project into the low 230s when you blend offensive output with late-game foul dynamics, and both second units can score enough to avoid extended droughts. On the moneyline, Minnesota earns the nod: their nightly margin sits stronger, they’ve been the steadier late-game operators, and their road profile is good enough to win close ones. Against the spread, we’ll back Minnesota to cover a small number, counting on their defense to generate an extra stop or two and their wings to attack mismatches on switches. Put simply: our model favors a slightly higher-scoring, close contest—Minnesota’s two-way stability gives them the edge to pull it out and cover, with the Warriors’ shot-making keeping the Over very live.
