Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks 11/20/2025
Two Eastern powers collide in Milwaukee on Thursday night, and the betting angle is as intriguing as the matchup. Philadelphia enters at 8-6, Milwaukee at 8-7, and both have been up-and-down across their last five, splitting two wins with three losses apiece. The headline variable for models and bettors alike: Giannis Antetokounmpo is out 1–2 weeks with a left groin strain. That absence forces Milwaukee to rewire its offense and rebounding, while Philly’s own rotation is in flux as Paul George is being carefully managed following his season debut. The opening number had Milwaukee around a small home favorite, but Giannis’ status swings value toward the 76ers on the moneyline and against the spread. The total sits in the high 220s, which makes the under interesting with the Bucks likely leaning on half-court offense and more deliberate tempo.
If you’re shopping prices, you’ll see a split market: some US sportsbooks list the Bucks at plus money at home, while others shade the Sixers as slim road favorites. Our three betting leans for this matchup: a moneyline play on the 76ers at a fair price, a modest spread look in Philly’s direction, and an under on the total given the context. Let’s dig in.
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Our betting predictions for the match Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Main Tip: Total – Under 227.5 Points
Total: Under 227.5 points at best odds -110 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Why: Without Giannis, Milwaukee’s on-ball creation, rim pressure, and second-chance profile all dip. The Bucks’ home scoring has been robust, but it’s also leaned on star-driven efficiency. Expect a steadier diet of half-court sets, more pick-and-pop, and lineups that prioritize spacing but may not produce the same downhill free-throw pressure. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has leaned on Tyrese Maxey’s shot creation and has shown a road scoring clip that can surge, but the rotations are tightening with load management for Paul George. Given both teams’ recent 2-3 skids and the likelihood of a possession-by-possession chess match, the under has the cleanest path. Our projection: about 223–224 combined points, enough cushion to back Under 227.5 at -110 FanDuel.
If FanDuel’s on your radar, take a minute to read our FanDuel sportsbook review and see whether it fits how you like to bet.
Tip 2: Moneyline – Philadelphia 76ers
Moneyline: Philadelphia 76ers at BetMGM Sportsbook. Why: The absence of Giannis is a high-leverage swing—Milwaukee loses a top-tier scorer, rebounder, and playmaker in one stroke. Philly’s offense, powered by Maxey, travels well, and the Sixers’ road average in scoring has ticked slightly higher than their home clip. Factor in Milwaukee’s recent inconsistency and the 76ers’ ability to win the free-throw and turnover battles on the road, and the modest chalk on the moneyline is justified. Model edge is modest but positive at this number if your book is dealing Philly at tighter than -128, even better.
Tip 3: Spread – Philadelphia 76ers -1.5
Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -1.5 at best odds -110 with BetMGM. Why: If you’re aligned with the moneyline, the spread is a natural extension. With a shorter rotation and the Bucks redistributing usage, Philadelphia’s backcourt advantage—especially late—becomes the difference. The Sixers’ road win profile supports a narrow cover scenario in a two-possession game. Laying the 1.5 at -110 with BetMGM rides the same edge as the ML, with a bit more payout efficiency if you expect a close Philly win.
GAME DETAILS
- Date/Time: Thursday, November 20, 2025, 8:00 PM ET (7:00 PM local)
- Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
- Competition: NBA. Market drifting with Giannis ruled out
INJURY REPORTS & LINEUP NOTES
Philadelphia 76ers
- Out: Paul George (left knee recovery/load management), Adem Bona (right ankle sprain)
- Key actives: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Jaren McCain, Quentin Grimes, Andre Drummond
- Context: George debuted Nov. 17 and is being managed; the core trio (Embiid, Maxey, George) has logged minimal minutes together to date.
Milwaukee Bucks
- Out: Giannis Antetokounmpo (low-grade left groin strain, 1–2 weeks), Taurean Prince (neck)
- Expected lineup core: Ryan Rollins, AJ Green, Gary Trent Jr, Cole Anthony, Myles Turner
- Next-up minutes: Kyle Kuzma, Bobby Portis, Jericho Sims; Rollins to absorb more playmaking
Team Statistics
Milwaukee Bucks (8-7 overall)
- Overall scoring: 117.6 points per game; allowed 118.7; differential -1.1
- Home form: 5-3; at home averaging 123.8 points scored and 120.1 allowed
- Last 5: 2 wins, 3 losses
Philadelphia 76ers (8-6 overall)
- Overall scoring: 118.1 points per game; allowed 116.3; differential +1.8
- Road form: 3-3; on the road, averaging 120.3 points scored and 119.0 allowed
- Last 5: 2 wins, 3 losses
Keyplayer Statistics/Momentum/External Factors
- Tyrese Maxey’s November heater remains the swing factor. He has cleared the 30-point line in 6 of his last 10, and in November, he’s averaging roughly 31.2 points with 7.0 assists and active hands on defense. His pull-up three and pace control are tailor-made for closing time on the road, particularly when Embiid (if active) draws the interior gravity.
- Paul George’s situation is the volatility variable. Even when active, he’s under-managed minutes, which limits two-way ceiling but still adds spacing, secondary playmaking, and long-armed defense on Milwaukee’s wings.
- For Milwaukee, Ryan Rollins has punched above expectations, logging 20-plus in 3 of his last 4 and stabilizing the guard rotation. Without Giannis, Rollins’ usage and assist rate are critical to keeping the half-court offense flowing.
- Bobby Portis is the emotional tone-setter and boards machine. He’s recently posted multiple heavy double-double nights, and his second-chance creation is one way the Bucks can offset the missing superstar load.
- External factors: No back-to-back pressure. With Giannis out, Milwaukee likely leans on spacing, ball movement, and offensive glass to manufacture scoring, while Philadelphia aims to control pace and win the free-throw margin. If George is limited, look for more touches for Quentin Grimes and a heavy screening diet with Maxey, plus Drummond’s activity on the glass.
Last direct match: Milwaukee Bucks vs Philadelphia 76ers
- Most recent head-to-head: Milwaukee won on the road by 13 points.
- Last five H2H: Bucks have taken the last five meetings.
Performance last 5 matches
- Milwaukee Bucks: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Philadelphia 76ers: 2 wins, 3 losses
Last match results
- Bucks: Lost by 12 at home to Cleveland.
- 76ers: Lost by 9 at home to Toronto.
Milwaukee Bucks: Form snapshot, PPG, and Eastern Conference context
The Bucks’ 8-7 start places them squarely in the East’s middle tier, with a home record of 5-3 powered by robust home scoring (north of 123 points per game at Fiserv Forum). The challenge tonight is recalibrating without their MVP engine. Expect more touches for Rollins on the ball, Portis on the interior, and perimeter punch from Trent Jr. The defense has allowed 118.7 per night overall and over 120 at home, which is where the pressure point resides against a Philly team that can surge in road scoring. Milwaukee’s path to a home upset leans on winning the glass, getting to the line, and generating enough threes to offset lost rim pressure. The good news: role players often shoot better at home. The caution: late-game shot creation could tighten without Giannis’ gravity.
Philadelphia 76ers: Road form, PPG, and Eastern Conference context
Philly sits in the East’s upper-middle range at 8-6 and plays .500 ball on the road, but with better scoring away from home than at the Wells Fargo Center. Maxey’s usage and efficiency define their ceiling; if he dictates tempo and creates corner threes, the Sixers’ offensive profile holds up even against a solid home opponent. Their overall defense has allowed 116.3 per game—a number that can look better when they control pace and get set in the half-court. If Embiid is in the mix (not specified here), their free-throw edge and rim deterrence elevate dramatically; if not, Drummond’s rebounding and screen-setting become central. Philadelphia’s biggest swing is bench consistency on the road—staggering Maxey’s minutes to prop up non-starter units can be decisive in a one-possession environment.
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TrustnBet Final Thoughts
We’re backing three angles that align with the Giannis-out context and each team’s recent form: – Under 227.5 at -110: Expect more half-court possessions, fewer free throws for Milwaukee, and late-game pace control by Maxey. Our projection sits a few points below the market, offering value to the under. – 76ers moneyline: The absence of Giannis shifts the balance just enough toward Philly’s perimeter creation and road scoring profile. Our model sits around a mid-50s win probability for the Sixers, matching the implied at this number. – 76ers -1.5 at -110: If you like the ML, the short spread adds a smidge of payout efficiency. Close, late-game execution favors the Sixers’ lead ball-handler and free-throw reliability.
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